voa标准英语2008-Cheap Oil May Spark Russian Budget Crisis
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The Russian economy has been among the hardest hit of any country, during the current global economic crisis. Russia - a major energy exporter - has not only suffered banking1 and stock woes2, as in the rest of the world, but also a precipitous drop in the price of oil. The decline is affecting the Russian people and their economy. |
| Mikhail Unksov |
Pawnshops are among the few places in Russia where activity is up these days. Here the industry says the average customer is middle class, from 30 to 45 years old and pawns3 mostly gold or jewelry4.
Mikhail Unksov, president of Russia's Pawnshop League, says the typical client is a person without an adequate regular salary who is seeking a quick and easy way to fulfill5 a desire.
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| Central Bank of Russia |
Russia's economic boom is over for now, with its stock market down about 70 percent. The ruble is nearing a three-year low. The country's central bank has spent about $150 billion - nearly 25 percent of its reserves - propping6 up the currency and increasing market liquidity7. Those reserves were accumulated when the price of oil was high.
About half of the Russian budget comes from sales of oil and gas. And more tax revenue is generated by energy industry suppliers. And so, the plummeting8 price of crude could soon create a budget deficit9, directly impacting Russians employed by the government - more than half the national work force and their families.
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| Konstantin Simonov |
Energy consultant10 Konstantin Simonov, director of the independent National Energy Security Fund in Moscow, says oil producers and suppliers represent two of three legs that support Russia's poorly diversified11 economy.
Simonov says the third leg is the one that helps consume oil and gas profits. It includes restaurant owners, developers, etc, because that oil money enters the economy and is used to buy such things as apartments, cars, and food.
And so, low oil prices and tight credit in Russia mean idle construction cranes, empty automobile12 showrooms, and slow business in restaurants.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin recently warned of possible economic difficulties ahead, but also assured Russians their country has every chance to get through those difficulties with minimum loses. Mr. Putin says the big volume of Russian gold reserves will enable the country to get through current domestic and global economic difficulties smoothly13 and without any sharp fluctuations14.
But the prime minister acknowledges rising unemployment, and economists15 say Russia will deplete16 its reserves if the price of oil stays low and the global economic crisis continues more than half a year.
At pawnshops, industry president Mikhail Unksov says 95 percent of clients are retrieving17 their items, which means they are still able to repay loans that average less than $400 [About 10,000 rubles]. He adds most Russians also understand that leaving their gold at a pawnshop is like throwing away a life preserver on a sinking ship.
