苹果公司的强大势头是否快到终点

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　　中国大陆市场在过去的几个星期正在逐渐萎靡。首先，政府开始抑制卖空以控制风险。

　　Then, China surprised investors³ by weakening its currency by almost 2% after a weekend of poor trade data and prompting a sell-off in global equities⁴ at the end of the month.

　　其次，令投资者震惊的是，中国在一个星期萎靡的贸易数据之后，通货降低了2%，并在月底引发了全球股票的下跌。

　　There are fears it could be the beginning of the end for Apple's outperformance too. Most recently, Apple fell into bear market territory for the first time in several years this month. But Apple shares also saw a significant dip when the group announced its results in mid-July.

　　有一些人担忧，这可能也是苹果公司优越表现即将结束的预兆。本月，苹果公司落入了多年未遇的熊市。但苹果公司在7月中旬宣布结果时，其股份仍大幅下降。

　　On the face of it, this is slightly baffling. Its results were still well within its guidance. Certainly, the company missed projections⁵ for revenue forecasts and its iPhone sales were not as strong, but it is still predicting ￡1bn in sales for the Apple Watch.

　　这个结果是有些令人困惑的。苹果公司的情况还仍然不错，属于控制之内。当然了，公司没有提前预报收入，苹果手机的销售也不是很强健，但它仍然预计有10亿的苹果手表的收入。

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　　Part of the problem is that Apple has been exceeding expectations for so long, an expectation that it will beat them all is now baked into the share price. One analyst⁶ suggested Apple shareholders⁷ had become 'spoilt' by the company constantly beating estimates. We believe it probably is the end of Apple's outperformance.

　　有一部分原因是，苹果公司已经超出预期太久了，这种超出预期的结果已经包含在了股票价格之中。苹果公司的股东已经被公司持续打破预期的表现“惯坏”了。我们相信这次可能就是苹果公司突出表现的终点。

　　While there is good new user conversion⁸ within the US, outside the US, it is mostly a replacement⁹ cycle. In China, for example, Apple has been successful at getting the high end of the market, but we are skeptical¹⁰ about the extent to which it will make inroads further down the value chain. It has strong competitors in Xiaomi, a privately¹¹ owned Chinese electronics company, and others.

　　当美国正经历新用户转换的时候，美国以外的其他地方却更多的是循环替换。比如在中国，苹果成功地打入了高端市场，但我们很怀疑它能够在开拓价值链上走多远。苹果有强大的对手，如中国的私人电子公司小米，以及其他公司。

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