青藏高原冰川融化速度惊人将影响亚洲淡水供应

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　　青藏高原的气温上升速度比亚洲其它地区快了四倍，中国科学家说青藏高原上绝大部分的冰川和永动层或许不久就将消失殆尽，这将影响亚洲各地的淡水供应。

　　Long known as the "roof of the world," the Tibetan Plateau is about the size of Western Europe and supplies water to nearly 2 billion people in Asia as the source of several major rivers, including the Yangze, Mekong, Salween (Gyalmo Ngulchu), Indus, Brahmaputra and Yellow rivers.

　　作为早就闻名遐迩的“世界屋脊”，青藏高原的面积和西欧差不多。这一地区是包括长江、湄公河、萨尔温江、印度河、雅鲁藏布江和黄河在内的几条大河的源头，向亚洲近20亿人供应着淡水。

　　But because of the impact of climate change, the glaciers² are retreating rapidly, grasslands³ are shrinking as desertification expands, regional precipitation has become irregular, water levels are dropping in major rivers and the permafrost is thawing⁴.

　　但受气候变化影响，这里的冰川迅速消退，草原面积不断减小，荒漠化面积不断增加，区域降水反常，几条大河的水位不断下降，永冻层也在持续融化。

　　The melting of Tibetan glaciers, the largest mass of frozen fresh water outside the polar regions, is linked to many environmental consequences both locally and globally, including heat waves in Europe, according to some studies.

　　青藏高原储藏着除两极地区以外最多的冰冻淡水。一些研究显示，这一地区的冰川融化与多种区域性和全球性的环境影响有关，比如欧洲的热浪。

　　青藏高原冰川融化速度惊人将影响亚洲淡水供应.jpg

　　Glacial retreat

　　冰川消融

　　Chinese officials estimate Tibet holds 14.5 percent of the world's total glacier mass. While there are a few different theories on what is causing the glaciers to melt, researchers agree the pace is staggering.

　　中国官方预计西藏地区拥有占全世界14.5%的冰川储量。尽管对引起冰川融化的原因还存在不同说法，但研究者们都认为青藏高原冰川消融的速度是惊人的。

　　China's state-run Xinhua news agency reported in April that an average of 247 square kilometers of glacier is disappearing annually⁵, and that some 7,600 square kilometers of glacier, or about 18 percent of the total, has disappeared since the 1950s.

　　今年4月，中国官方的新华社报道，青藏高原平均每年有247平方公里的冰川消融。自上世纪50年代以来，已经有大约7600平方公里的冰川消失，这占到青藏高原冰川总量的大约18%。

　　Zhang Mingxing, a Chinese official who heads the Tibet Mountaineering Administration, said the glacier at the Everest base camp, 5,200 meters above sea level, has already disappeared. "There is nothing but stones (left)," he was quoted as saying by Xinhua.

　　西藏登山运动管理中心主任张明兴说，在海拔5200米的艾佛勒斯峰（珠穆朗玛峰）大本营区的冰川已经消失。新华社援引他的描述说，那里就剩下石头了。

　　Prior Chinese research of substances within Tibetan glaciers indicated carbon from forest fires, crop burning and domestic cooking stoves from India have caused the melting. While these could be contributing factors, scientists say the global rise in temperatures is indisputably the primary cause.

　　在对冰川内的物质进行研究之后，之前的一些中国研究人员表示，森林大火、焚烧秸秆以及印度家庭做饭用的厨灶等造成的碳排放都导致了青藏高原冰川的融化。科研人员说，尽管可能还有其它因素，但全球气温升高正在成为导致冰川融化的一个无可辩驳的原因。

　　Tibetans say there has been a drastic change of temperature since 1980s. One U.S.-based Tibetan who recently returned to Lhasa expressed shock at seeing the climatological impact on people's clothing style. "When I lived in Lhasa, it was very rare that people could walk outside in T-shirts," said the man, who asked that his name be withheld⁶. "Now people are walking in shorts!"

　　西藏地区居民表示自上世纪80年代以来，这一地区的气温发生了剧烈的变化。一位居住在美国、不愿透露姓名的西藏人表示当他最近回到拉萨时，他被人们因气候变化导致的穿衣风格的改变震惊了。他说：“当我在拉萨生活的时候，很少能见到人们穿着T恤衫走出户外的。现在走在拉萨街头的人都是短衣短裤了。”

　　National Geographic⁷ reported in 2010 that one glacier was retreating by about 300 meters a year, the length of a U.S. football field.

　　《国家地理》杂志在2010年报告一处冰川正在以每年大约300米的速度消退，这与一个美式橄榄球场的长度大致相当。

　　As early as 2009, China's leading scientist on glaciers, Qin Dahe, said glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau were melting faster than in any other part of the world. In the short term, he warned, the melt would trigger more flooding and mudslides; in the long term: "water supplies in the region will be in peril⁸."

　　早在2009年，中国从事冰川研究的带头人秦大河就表示青藏高原的冰川消融速度比世界上其它任何地方都快。他曾警告说冰川消融在短期内就可能导致更多的洪水和泥石流，长远看来这一地区的淡水供应将受到威胁。

　　Some researchers have predicted that most of the Himalayan glaciers will be gone in 20 years.

　　一些研究人员已经预测，喜马拉雅山地区的大部分冰川在20年内将消失殆尽。

　　Water needs

　　淡水需求

　　Those shrinking glaciers feed some of the largest rivers that run through China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Burma, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia.

　　那些正在消退的冰川是一些世界最大河流的源头，这些河流流经中国、印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、缅甸、老挝、泰国、越南以及柬埔寨。

　　"Water is the most important resource that this region has, the common region of Tibet part of China, India, Bhutan and all of that," said R. Rangachari, honorary scholar at India's Center for Policy Research and former secretary of the Ministry⁹ of Water Resources of India.

　　印度政策研究中心荣誉学者兰加夏里（R. Rangachari）说：“这一区域、也就是由中国的藏区、印度和不丹等等的共同区域所拥有的最重要的资源就是水。”兰加夏里曾担任印度水利部部长，

　　"Water is the key to removing poverty, generation of power, agriculture, et cetera," he told VOA's Tibetan service.

　　他还对美国之音藏语组说：“水资源是消除贫困、发电和发展农业的关键。”

　　A former researcher of Tibetan Plateau climate change for the Chinese Academy of Science, who spoke¹⁰ on the condition of anonymity¹¹, said diminished glacial runoff had already reduced water levels on the Yangtze and Yellow rivers. "The headwaters for any major rivers come from (the) Tibetan Plateau and there is (a) lesser¹² water supply to those head rivers," he said.

　　一位前中国科学院青藏高原气候变化问题研究员表示，在西藏的部分地区，水资源的供应已经在减少，像长江、黄河这样的河流水位也在下降。这位匿名人士还透露：“另一个现象就是对主要河流的供水在减少。源头在青藏高原的主要河流的上游水量在减少，对那些源头河流的供水也在变少。”

　　China's Ministry of Water Resources announced in 2013 that as many as 28,000 smaller rivers in China had abruptly¹³ disappeared by 2011. While Beijing did not cite specific causes, the anonymous¹⁴ researcher said warming on the Tibetan Plateau was at least partly to blame.

　　中国水利部在2013年公布一项数据，截至2011年，中国有多达28000条较小的河流迅速消失。虽然水利部没有提及原因，但那位前中科院研究员表示青藏高原气候变暖是部分原因。

　　"Another important reason is the meltdown of the permafrost soil," which leads to subterranean¹⁵ water drainage, he said. "Like when you have (a) thick sponge."

　　The latest research conducted by the Chinese Academy of Science predicted that more than 80 percent of Tibetan Plateau permafrost could be gone by the year 2100, and that almost 40 percent of it would be gone within the "near future."

　　他说：“另一个重要原因就是永久冻土融化。”他说，这带来地下水的排水问题，“就像你手里的海绵变厚一样。”

　　中科院的最新研究预测，到2100年，青藏高原上可能将有超过80%的永久冻土消失，有近40%的永久冻土在“不久的将来”就可能消失。

　　Increased risk of conflict

　　冲突风险

　　The apparent changes in the Tibetan Plateau have raised concern about the potential for water-security conflicts in the region, particularly between China and India.

　　青藏高原上明显的气候变化增加了人们对各方，特别是中国和印度，在水资源保障问题上发生冲突的担忧。

　　To mitigate¹⁶ the environmental impact, China has stepped up construction of dams along rivers cascading¹⁷ from the Tibetan Plateau, despite complaints from downstream nations that need the water.

　　在西藏环境发生明显变化的同时，中国不顾下游国家的抱怨，一直在青藏高原的河流上游加紧建设大坝。

　　In fact, the Salween remains¹⁸ the only Tibetan river that has not yet been interrupted by major dams; Tibet's Yarlung Tsangpo River, which feeds India's Brahmaputra River, recently saw construction of a single dam.

　　实际上，在源头在西藏的主要河流中，只有萨尔温河没有重要大坝的阻隔。中国最近在雅鲁藏布江上建成了一座大坝，雅鲁藏布江是印度布拉马普特拉河的源头河流。

　　According to Rangachari, India takes the water issues seriously.

　　兰加夏里表示印度非常重视水资源问题。

　　"Nobody wants to hand over their right to do something — (especially) what the other is doing," he said. "Political boundaries might be created by man, but geography is created by God."

　　他说：“没人想把做事的权利拱手让人，特别是这件事是别人正在做的。政治界线是人为的，但地理是神定的。

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