投资者需调低回报预期

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　　市场喜欢清晰；虽然事后来看有些事情显而易见，但在展望未来时却很少会那么毫无压力地看得清楚。

　　It’s interesting how that can be forgotten — in particular at moments of transition for markets and the macro economy. We are at a transition point currently and transitions are bumpy¹. As an investor², it’s important to determine the implications of being right or wrong about a particular path. What should never be in doubt is the need for long-term money to stay invested.

　　有趣的是，人们怎么会忘记这一点，尤其是在市场和宏观经济转折之际。我们目前正在转折期间，而转折是颠簸的。作为一名投资者，重要的是确定某一条路径正确与否的潜在影响。永远不应怀疑的是，长期资金有必要持续投资。

　　We have seen several strong double-digit-return years since the financial crisis. Higher than normal returns become expected and they shouldn’t be. We’ve entered the later stages of the investment cycle and, in reality, it offers less clarity than investors³ have come to expect from an ageing bull market. The outlook is good, not great, and the risks have risen. Return expectations need to be managed lower.

　　自金融危机以来，我们已经看到有多年取得了两位数的强劲回报。超过正常水平的回报率变成了人们期望的常态，这是不应该的。我们进入了这个投资周期的末期，现实地讲，它提供的清晰度不如投资者对一个年迈的牛市产生的预期。前景不错，但并非特别好，而风险已经上升。回报预期有必要被调低。

　　Global growth slowed last year, stalled by emerging economies. The US and China are the foundation economies for sustainable moderate global growth. We do not believe that the US or China will fall into recession in 2016. China falling into recession would, in our opinion, be more damaging to global growth than a more aggressive path of Fed tightening⁴.

　　去年全球增长由于新兴经济体的拖累而放缓。美国和中国是全球可持续适度增长的基础经济体。我们认为美国和中国不会在2016年陷入衰退。在我们看来，中国陷入衰退对全球增长的破坏将超过美联储(Fed)走上更为激进的收紧政策之路。

　　The US is furthest along in expansion, with Europe and Japan in recovery but clearly disappointing in momentum⁵. Emerging markets are recovering from a credit crunch⁶ and an overextended investment boom. We have had meaningful debate about whether emerging markets will be the tipping point that stalls the global economy in 2016. While not our base case, we remain concerned that there may be additional spillover effects from developing economies that can weigh again on global markets.

　　美国在经济扩张的路上走得最远，欧洲和日本正在复苏，但显然在势头方面令人失望。新兴市场正在从信贷危机和过度的投资热潮中复苏。我们已经就新兴市场会不会是2016年拖累全球经济的引爆点进行了有意义的辩论。我们依然担心，发展中经济体可能产生更多的溢出效应，再度拖累全球市场，尽管这并非我们的基准预测。

　　Should commodity market rebalancing get worse, the non-linear effects of lower commodity prices may lead to a significant rise in financial stress, defaults and possible contagion⁷. Latin America, the Middle East and Africa stand out as ongoing⁸ concerns. Asia continues to look better positioned to navigate⁹ the year ahead but we expect local currency markets to be a great deal more volatile¹⁰ and pressured. Fed tightening and China’s response via currency depreciation¹¹ will be the drivers.

　　如果大宗商品市场的再平衡恶化，大宗商品价格下跌的非线性效应可能导致金融压力显著上升、违约，还有可能蔓延。拉美、中东和非洲持续令人担忧。亚洲继续有望在未来一年处于比较有利的地位，但我们预计当地汇市将会剧烈波动，并承受巨大压力。推动因素将是美联储收紧政策以及中国通过贬值来应对。

　　It’s easy to point to the drumbeat for Fed tightening as the culprit behind challenging equity¹² markets. In reality, high valuations, as well as disappointing sales and earnings¹³, have more to do with it. While we are not overly concerned about current valuation levels, returns need to be driven by earnings growth.

　　人们很容易将美联储收紧政策的号角视为股市低迷的罪魁祸首。实际上，高估值以及令人失望的销售数据和利润的因素更大一些。尽管我们没有过度担忧当前的估值水平，但回报率需要得到利润增长的推动。

　　Earnings dispersion remains¹⁴ an important driver of sector¹⁵ returns but the year ahead is going to be more nuanced and company-specific. That should favour active managers.

　　盈利的离散性仍是具体行业回报的重要推动因素，但未来一年的差别将更加细腻，要具体分析特定公司的情况，这应该有利于主动型基金经理。

　　It is central to note that portfolio¹⁶ diversification¹⁷ becomes more important the later we get in a cycle — there is less of a value cushion to allow for being wrong. That puts greater emphasis on the need for diversification of investment risk across a portfolio. Asset allocation, at its core, is about measuring and managing investment risk. The further along in a cycle, the more important it becomes.

　　有必要指出的是，越处于投资周期的末期，分散投资就越重要——允许犯错的价值缓冲减少了。这意味着在投资组合中更加注重分散投资风险。资产配置的核心内涵就是衡量和管理投资风险。一个周期越接近末期，资产配置就越重要。

　　Investors should expect low single-digit returns from fixed¹⁸ income and, hopefully, mid-to-high single-digit returns from equity markets. Equity market returns will be driven by earnings growth and dividends¹⁹. If earnings disappoint, valuations will be under pressure as investors demand a higher risk premium²⁰ for a less certain earnings stream. That will lower returns. A lack of clarity is discounted by markets in the form of higher risk premia — whether wider credit spreads or lower equity multiples.

　　投资者的预期应该是从固定收益获得较小的个位数回报，从股市获得较高的个位数回报。股市回报将受到利润增长和股息的推动。如果利润令人失望，估值将会承压，因为投资者要求对不那么确定的利润流获得更高的风险溢价。这将降低回报率。缺乏清晰度被市场以风险溢价上升的形式计入——无论是信贷息差扩大还是股市市盈率降低。

　　Across portfolios²¹ we are overweight global equities²² and alternative investments versus²³ fixed income. Coming into 2016, the size of our equity overweight versus benchmarks is lower. We are overweight developed equity markets, avoiding emerging markets for now and continue to invest in hedge funds across portfolios that can own them. We currently hold no direct investment allocations to commodities.

　　在整个投资组合中，我们在全球股市和另类投资上超配，固定收益上低配。进入2016年之际，我们在股市的超配程度下降。我们现在在发达国家的股市超配，暂时回避新兴市场，并继续在可以拥有对冲基金的投资组合中投资于对冲基金。我们目前没有直接的大宗商品投资。

　　Market and macro expansions tend to run longer and we believe we’ve entered the later stages of the investment cycle, an important transition point. The path of least resistance for markets is to move higher — but at a slower and bumpier²⁴ pace.

　　市场和宏观经济扩张的周期往往较长，我们相信现在已经进入了投资周期的末期，这是一个重要的转折点。对市场来说，阻力最小的路径是向上走，但步伐将更为缓慢和坎坷。

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