新探明石油储量降至逾60年来最低水平

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新探明石油储量已降至逾60年来最低水平，这预示着未来10年可能出现供给短缺。

Oil explorers found 2.8bn barrels of crude and related liquids last year, according to IHS, a consultancy. This is the lowest annual volume recorded since 1954, reflecting a slowdown in exploration activity as hard-pressed oil companies seek to conserve¹ cash.

咨询公司IHS的数据显示，石油勘探企业去年新发现的原油及相关液态能源为28亿桶。这是自1954年以来录得的最低年探明储量，反映出随着拮据的石油公司设法节约现金，石油勘探活动正逐步放缓。

Most of the new reserves that have been found are offshore² in deep water, where oilfields take an of average seven years to bring into production, so the declining rate of exploration success points to reduced supplies from the mid-2020s.

大多数新发现的石油储量都处于海洋深水区，投产平均需要7年时间，所以，探明成功率的下降预示着，从本世纪20年代中期开始，石油供给将会减少。

The dwindling³ rate of discoveries does not mean that the world is running out of oil; in recent years most of the increase in global production has come from existing fields, not new finds, according to Wood Mackenzie, another consultancy. Additionally, there has been a predominance of gas, rather than oil, in recent finds.

另一家咨询公司伍德麦肯兹(Wood Mackenzie)认为，新发现石油储量速度的下降并不意味着全球石油正在耗尽；近年来，全球石油产量增长的大部分来自已有油田，而非新发现油田。此外，在新近发现的储量中，占绝大多数的是天然气，而非石油。

But if the rate of oil discoveries does not improve, it will create a shortfall in global supplies of about 4.5m barrels per day by 2035, Wood Mackenzie said.

伍德麦肯兹表示，如果石油勘探的速度不提高，到2035年将造成全球每天约450万桶的供给缺口。

That could mean higher oil prices, and make the world more reliant on onshore oilfields where the resource base is already known, such as US shale⁴.

这或将意味着油价上涨，并使全球更依赖已知资源储量的陆上油田，比如美国的页岩。

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