美联储珍妮特耶伦9月份会加息吗

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　　英国《金融时报》对华尔街经济学家的调查显示，逾85%的经济学家预计美联储(Fed)本月将按兵不动，因此如果美联储本月加息的话，珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)将给市场带来其就任美联储主席以来最大的冲击。

　　The scepticism among economists may concern the Fed’s top officials, who have spent the past month trying to persuade financial markets that an increase at their meeting on September 21 is a possibility given that the US unemployment rate is below 5 per cent and the global fallout from the Brexit vote has been muted.

　　经济学家的怀疑态度可能让美联储高层官员感到担忧，他们在过去一个月试图让金融市场相信，鉴于美国失业率低于5%，而且英国退欧公投对全球的影响已经消退，9月21日的议息会议是有可能宣布加息的。

　　They have succeeded at least in jolting² financial markets out of months of complacency, after comments from two voting members on the Fed’s policy-setting committee on Friday sent US stock and bond prices sliding at their greatest rate since June.

　　上周五美联储政策制定委员会两位拥有投票权的委员的言论让美国股票和债券价格创下今年6月以来的最大跌幅，美联储高层官员至少成功地让金融市场在震惊中丢掉了数月来的自满。

　　Conviction that Fed policymakers, who in January were projecting four rate rises this year, will tighten³ policy has been drained by a run of mixed US economic data, including slower jobs growth in August and signs that the services sector⁴ has lost momentum⁵.

　　美联储的政策制定者今年1月曾预计2016年会加息4次。市场关于他们将会收紧政策的坚定预期，已被一系列喜忧参半的美国经济数据削弱，这些数据包括8月份就业增长放缓以及服务业失去动力的迹象。

　　Just 13 per cent of the 46 economists surveyed by the Financial Times forecast a rise in the central bank’s key short-term interest rate this month.

　　在接受英国《金融时报》调查的46名经济学家当中，只有13%的人预计美联储将在本月上调关键短期利率。

　　Interest-rate futures⁶ suggest a 30 per cent probability that the Fed will move this month, a gauge⁷ of trader expectations that historically has been more sceptical than economists of the Fed’s appetite to raise interest rates.

　　利率期货显示，美联储本月将有30%的几率加息——利率期货体现交易员预期，与经济学家相比，交易员们一向对美联储的加息意愿更持怀疑态度。

　　However, some believe the Fed’s willingness to move this month, even if it is not currently priced in by markets, is underestimated.

　　然而，一些人相信，美联储本月加息意愿被低估，尽管当前并未被市场定价反映出来。

　　Given the recent communication from Fed officials, who have begun to signal that another hike in the near term is appropriate, we think the market has become too complacent⁸, according to economists at Goldman Sachs.

　　高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家表示：鉴于最近美联储官员的表态——他们开始暗示，近期再次加息是适当的——我们认为，市场过于自满。

　　Speculation⁹ the Fed will make a last-ditch effort to lift the market’s expectations of a move in 10 days have been stirred after it emerged late on Thursday that Lael Brainard, a Fed policymaker seen by investors¹¹ as in no hurry to raise rates, is giving a speech in Chicago on Monday, the final day before a blackout on officials’ public comments before the meeting comes into force.

　　上周四晚有消息称，被投资者视为不急于加息的美联储政策制定者莱尔?布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)将于周一——美联储议息会议前各位官员公开评论静默期前的最后一天——在芝加哥发表演讲，这促使市场猜测，美联储将尽最后努力提升市场对10天后加息的预期。

　　We also see some risk that she could deliver a speech with a hawkish¹² tilt¹³, according to economists at Barclays, who predict the Fed will move.

　　巴克莱(Barclays)经济学家表示：我们也认为她可能发表带有鹰派倾向的演讲。

　　If Federal Reserve chair Yellen wants to increase the market-implied probability of a rate hike, this speech is one of her last opportunities.

　　如果美联储主席耶伦希望提高市场预期的加息可能性，这场演讲是她的最后机会之一。

　　An increase next week by the Fed would be a major blow to this year’s rally in fixed¹⁴ income, which has been slowed in recent weeks by speculation over the conclusions of the Bank of Japan’s review of its unconventional policy which it will deliver on the same day the Fed gives its decision.

　　如果下周美联储加息，将对今年固定收益市场的反弹予以沉重打击——随着市场对日本央行(BoJ)评估其非常规政策的结论展开揣测，最近几周反弹已经放缓。日本央行的评估结论将在美联储议息决定的同一天发布。

　　Bond yields were also pushed higher after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said on Thursday that officials had not even discussed extending the central bank’s own quantitative¹⁵ easing programme, which is in danger of running out of bonds to buy.

　　欧洲央行(ECB)行长马里奥?德拉吉(Mario Draghi)上周四表示，官员们甚至没有讨论扩大该行自己的量化宽松计划——该计划可能陷入没有债券可购买的境地——这也推高了债券收益率。

　　The yield on the benchmark Japanese 10-year bond is close to positive territory again after falling as low as negative 0.29 per cent in late July; the 10-year German Bund rose above zero for the first time since July on Friday, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury¹⁶ has risen from a record low of 1.32 per cent to 1.68 per cent.

　　日本基准的十年期国债收益率接近正值——今年7月末一度低至-0.29%；十年期德国国债收益率上周五升至正值，这是今年7月以来的首次，同时十年期美国国债收益率从创纪录低点1.32%升至1.68%。

　　Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder¹⁷ of DoubleLine Capital and an influential¹⁸ bond investor¹⁰ based in Los Angeles, told Reuters on Thursday that the Fed would be prepared to raise rates if interest rate futures put the odds¹⁹ at more than 40 per cent.

　　DoubleLine Capital创始人、洛杉矶颇具影响力的债券投资者杰弗里?冈拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)上周四向路透社(Reuters)表示，如果利率期货显示的加息几率超过40%，美联储就会准备加息。

　　They want to show that they are not guided by the markets.

　　他们希望表明，他们不受市场的指引。

　　The Fed’s first rate increase since the financial crisis came last December, when markets had priced in an almost 80 per cent chance of the move.

　　去年12月，美联储自金融危机以来首次加息，当时市场定价反映出的加息概率接近80%。

　　More than 77 per cent of those economists polled by the FT, including several who forecast the Fed will go this month, believe the central bank will only raise once this year.

　　接受英国《金融时报》调查的经济学家当中——包括数位预计美联储本月加息的经济学家——逾77%的人认为美联储今年只会加一次息。

　　Several also downgraded their expectations for further tightening²⁰ from the Fed next year, the survey found. The median projection²¹ showed two further increases, taking rates to 1.125 per cent.

　　调查发现，数位经济学家还调低了对美联储明年进一步加息的预期，预期中值是认为美联储还会进行两次加息，将利率提高至1.125%。

　　However, the share of economists expecting more than half a percentage point of additional tightening in 2017 fell to 20 per cent from 30 per cent in the FT’s last survey in July.

　　然而，预期2017年再加息逾0.5个百分点的经济学家的占比降至20%，而英国《金融时报》7月份调查时是30%。

　　The FT conducted its survey between September 6 and 9.

　　英国《金融时报》在9月6日到9日开展了此次调查。

　　The Fed was also seen as unlikely to turn to negative rates if the US economy required further stimulus²².

　　经济学家还认为，如果美国经济需要进一步刺激，美联储不太可能求助于负利率。

　　More than half said they believed the US central bank had ruled out negative interest rate policy after its rollout in Europe and Asia plunged²³ yields on more than $13tn of assets below zero and intensified²⁴ risks for the financial sector.

　　逾半数的受访经济学家表示，在欧洲和亚洲率先推行负利率、导致逾13万亿美元资产的收益率跌至负值并加剧金融行业风险之后，他们相信美联储已经排除了负利率政策。

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