China's one-child policy combined with the preference for sons has skewed the population toward males. New research showing a strong correlation between that sex imbalance and savings rates offers some unexpected insights for financial services firms and others weighing investments in China.
中国的独生子女政策加之重男轻女的思想已使中国的男女比例向男性倾斜。最新一项研究显示，性别失衡和储蓄率之间存在明显关联，这为那些考虑在华投资的金融服务公司和其他企业提供了一些出人意料的见解。
The connection between the ratio of males to females and savings levels is simple. Male births have outnumbered female for years， which has resulted in intense competition for brides. It helps to have money， so parents of boys save up in order to improve sonny's chances in the marriage market.
男女比例与储蓄率之间的关联很简单。多年来，中国男孩的出生率一直高于女孩，这已经加剧了男性求偶时的竞争。这种情况下，殷实的家底能够为男子娶妻带来帮助，因此养育了男孩的家长们会存钱还提高孩子未来的“竞争力”。
In 1980， China had a more or less natural sex ratio at birth of 106 boys for every 100 girls； but by 2007， the ratio was 124 to 100. Competitive saving， as parents try to improve the marriage prospects of their sons， explains much of the increase in China's savings rate.
在1980年时，中国的男婴与女婴的出生比率是比较正常的106比100。而到了2007年，这一比率已经达到了124比100。美国国家经济研究局的研究报告指出，中国储蓄率的上升在很大程度上可以归因于家长为儿子更顺利地娶妻而攒钱。
China's savings rate rose steeply over the 1990-2007 period， eventually reaching 50% of GDP. Moreover， it rose even as pension and health-care systems improved and the financial system became more efficient， so it isn't explained by economic insecurity.
中国家庭的储蓄率在1990至2007年期间大幅上升，最终占到了国内生产总值（GDP）的一半。而且，在中国养老及医疗系统出现改善、金融体系效率日益提高的情况下，中国的储蓄率仍是升势不减，因此存钱的问题已经不能从提高家庭财务安全感的角度加以解释了。
Instead， it is closely correlated with the increasingly male skew of China's population. Other things being equal， areas with proportionally more boys than girls will have higher savings rates over time.
中国储蓄率倒越来越与中国人口天平的失衡紧密相关。在其他情况一致的前提下，男孩比例较高的地区储蓄率也会逐年上升。
The correlation coefficient is strong--as much as 0.822. Other factors do influence savings， but sex ratio imbalance explains about half the increase in China's savings rate nationally.
这一问题的相关系数高达0.822。虽然也有其他因素影响储蓄，但中国全国储蓄率的上升有一半可以归结于性别比例失衡。
The relationship is stronger in rural than in urban areas. That puts a new light on the reported initiative by Singapore's Temasek Holdings to invest RMB20 billion （2.9 billion） in rural banking in China， in cooperation with Bank of China. Agricultural Bank of China， whose on-again-off-again IPO will eventually come to market， could also be another beneficiary of boy-girl imbalance in China's population.
在农村，这一关联性表现得比城市更为明显。我们可以从这个全新的角度审视有关新加坡淡马锡控股（Temasek Holdings Pte）提议出资约人民币200亿元（约合29亿美元）与中国银行联合发展农村金融业务的报导。虽然在IPO问题上几番折腾、但终将上市的中国农业银行也有可能成为另一个在中国男女比率失衡问题上的受益者。
Demographic data indicate that China's boys will outnumber girls by even wider margins in years ahead， so the competitive pressure for parents to save will become even more intense.
人口统计学数据显示，未来中国男孩与女孩的数量差将进一步扩大，因此家长们的存钱压力将更显突出。
From an investing standpoint， the regional variations could be significant. The gender balance is particularly lopsided in a cluster of provinces in the southeast， and much less so in the north， and in China's western provinces， which are not ethnically Han.
从投资角度来看，分析地区性差异颇具意义。中国东南省市的人口失衡状况尤其明显，在北方和少数民族聚居的西部这种情况则要好很多。
The imbalance will be much greater in provinces such as rural Anhui than in Jilin or Tibet， where the shortage of girls is much less severe. Other provinces with higher-than-average boy-girl ratios and above-average savings rates include Fujian， Jiangsu， Jiangxi， Henan and Hainan， based on data from 2000 and 2005. A new census scheduled for November this year will provide new insights into possible savings trends over the next 10 to 20 years.
例如，安徽农村的人口失衡、女孩不足的状况要比吉林或西藏严重得多。2000至2005年的数据显示，中国其他男孩女孩比例失衡、储蓄率超过平均水平的地区还包括福建、江苏、江西、河南和海南。一项定于在今年11月份进行的人口普查有望进一步揭示出中国未来10到20年储蓄率的可能变化趋势。
The NBER study data will also interest consumer products companies targeting the Chinese market. Where male births outnumber females 130 to 100， as they do in some regions now， that could throw off assumptions about the demand for many products.
美国国家经济研究局的研究报告还激起了瞄准中国市场的消费品企业的兴趣。眼下中国某些地区的男婴与女婴出生比例已经达到了130比100，这足以令这些企业重新考虑许多产品的市场需求前景? |