The top travel industry group in Asia expects a modest recovery in travel to the region late this year, despite the global financial downturn. Travel analysts say the industry faces business closures as part of the economic rebound.
亚洲一个航运业机构预计，尽管全球金融系统萎靡不振，今年亚洲地区的航运业务还是会出现适度的恢复。航运业分析师认为，这个行业将面临商家破产和部分业务开始复苏并存的局面。
The Pacific Asia Travel Association says the industry in the Asia-Pacific region could show signs of recovery by the end of 2009.
亚太旅游协会表示，亚太地区的航运业可能会在2009年年底之前出现一些复苏的迹象。
A new PATA report says in Southeast Asia, international arrivals will grow to almost 77 million by 2011, up from more than 62 million in 2007.
该协会发布的一份新报告说，东南亚地区的国际游客数量将会在2011年达到7700万。2007年的数量是6200万。
Travel agents, hotels and airlines have faced tough times, with visitor arrivals to the Asia-Pacific region falling nearly three percent in late 2008. Destinations such as Thailand, Cambodia and Hong Kong, heavily dependent on tourism, have particularly suffered.
2008年下半年，到达亚太地区的航空游客数量减少了约三个百分点，旅行社、酒店和航空公司的日子都很不好过。泰国、柬埔寨、香港等高度依赖旅游业的地方遭受的损失特别严重。
PATA's strategic intelligence director, John Koldowski says the association sees late 2009 as a "turning point" for the regional travel industry.
亚太旅游协会战略情报部门负责人约翰·科尔多斯基(John Koldowski)说，该协会认为2009年年底将是这个地区旅游业的一个转折点。
"We believe that we might see signs of [recovery] that happening towards the end of the third quarter of this year, quite possibly the fourth quarter, but we are probably talking first and second quarter of [20] 10 before we can start to see some of that movement that is consistent," said John Koldowski.
科尔多斯基：“我们认为，我们可能会在今年第三季度结束的时候，也很可能是在第四季度看到复苏的迹象。不过，我们要开始看到这个行业好转的势头能够持续下来可能会是在明年第一或者第二季度。”
But, he warns, the hard times are not over yet.
不过，科尔多斯基警告说，艰难的日子还没有过去。
National tourism organizations in the region have countered the slump with new advertising. Promotions by South Korea lifted arrivals by 25 percent in January and February. Similar promotions underpinned the industry in Taiwan and India. But arrivals to China, Thailand and Japan all declined.
这个地区的各国的旅游机构通过加大广告力度来减小业务下滑的势头。韩国的促销活动把一、二月份的国际游客数量提高了25%。台湾和印度采取的类似措施也对各自的航空旅游业产生了一定的积极效果。不过，中国、泰国和日本的国际游客普遍减少了。
The International Aviation Transport Association says global passenger traffic will contract by two percent this year, but recover in 2010.
国际航空运输协会预测，全球的客运今年会下降两个百分点，但到2010年会有所复苏。
In 2008, airlines suffered an overall loss of nearly $8.5 billion, but the loss is expected to shrink this year to about $5 billion.
2008年，航空公司总体亏损近85亿美元，不过，今年亏损幅度可望减少到50亿美元。
Koldowski says he expects the travel industry to face major structural changes as it recovers. Some airlines, hotel chains and other businesses may fail or have to change their operating practices.
科尔多斯基说，他估计，航运业在复苏的时候可能会出现重大的结构调整。某些航空公司、连锁酒店和其它的一些业务不是破产，就是要改变自己的运营方式。
"The industry will come through it but it will be a radically different industry," he said. "The aviation sector could be very, very different in its guise. However, I think we will come through it but not all businesses will survive."
科尔多斯基：“这个行业会渡过难关的，但是整个行业的面貌会跟过去有很大的不同。航运业看上去将非常、非常不一样。但是，我认为我们会渡过难关的，但并不是所有的公司都能生存下来。”
By 2008, tourist arrivals to the Asia Pacific region had nearly doubled, to 385 million, from a decade earlier. During the same period, global travel rose by one third.
截至到2008年，亚太地区的旅游人数达到3.85亿人，几乎比10年前翻了一番。同期，全球的旅游人数增加了1/3。 |