Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke says the U.S. recession should begin to end later this year, and the economy is in a slow recovery, although extraordinary challenges remain and there are serious risks from deficit spending.
美联储主席伯南克说，美国的经济衰退将在今年晚些时候开始结束，美国经济正在缓慢复苏，尽管不同寻常的困难依然还在，而且还存在来自赤字开支的严重风险。
Testifying before the House Budget Committee, the Federal Reserve chairman said he is quite sure that steps taken by the U.S. government since last year prevented a much wider global meltdown. "Last fall we very likely would have had a serious and perhaps global financial meltdown with extraordinarily adverse implications for the U.S. and global economies. I think having averted that, that we now seem to be in a process of slow and gradual repair both of the financial system and of the economy, is a major accomplishment," he said.
美联储主席伯南克在众议院预算委员会作证说，他相当肯定美国政府去年以来所采取的步骤防止了全球发生更大规模的经济衰退。他说：“去年秋天，我们很可能面临一场严重的、也许还是全球性的金融崩溃，这种局面对美国和全球经济都会有特别严重的影响。我认为，我们已经避免了这种可能性，而且看来我们如今正处于缓慢并逐步修整金融系统与经济的过程中，这是重要的成就。”
Steps included the $700 billion financial rescue Congress approved last year, the $787 billion economic stimulus package earlier this year, and other measures to address weakness in the banking industry and place tighter controls on the financial system.
Bernanke said data suggests that the pace of the country's economic contraction may be slowing. While businesses remain cautious and continue to reduce employees and capital investments, they are also reducing excess inventory to align with realistic sales prospects. And that he says, could lead to increased production.
伯南克说，数据显示美国经济紧缩过程开始缓解。企业界一方面仍然持谨慎态度，而且继续裁员、并减少资本投资，另一方面他们也在出清过多的库存，以配合实际销售前景。他说，这样做可能提高生产。
In the housing market, which has been a key drag on the economy, Bernanke says after a long period of decline there are signs of a bottoming out.
伯南克说，住房市场是拖累经济的主要因素，但是在经历了长期低落之后，现在呈现反弹的迹象。
But while he predicts overall economic activity will begin to turn upward by the end of the year, Bernanke said a weak labor market, declines in household equity and wealth, and tight credit conditions could slow recovery.
虽然他预计总体经济活动将从今年年底开始呈现上升趋向，但是他又说，疲弱的劳力市场降低了家庭资产和财富，而且信贷紧缩状况也可能减慢经济复苏的速度。
With some six million jobs lost so far, he added, unemployment is likely to remain high for some time, with recent information suggesting "sizable job losses and further increases in unemployment" likely in coming months.
他还说，到目前为止已经失去了6百万个就业机会，而且失业率还很可能在一段时间内仍然居高不下，根据目前的信息，在未来几个月内还很可能有大量就业机会流失、和失业人数的进一步增多。
Bernanke voiced particular concern about huge federal deficits, and the amount of debt held by the public measured against Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which he noted is projected to increase to about 70 percent in 2011, the highest since the early 1950's.
伯南克特别表示关心的是巨大的联邦赤字和政府持有的公共债务与国内生产总值之间的比例，他预计这一比例还会继续增加，到2011年会达到约70%，这是自从上世纪50年代以来的最高点。
"Even as we take steps to address the recession and threats to financial stability, maintaining the confidence of the financial markets requires that we, as a nation, begin planning now for the restoration of fiscal balance," he said.
他说：“即使我们采取步骤处理这次经济衰退和危及金融稳定的威胁，要保持人们对金融市场的信心，我们作为一个国家现在就得开始筹划如何恢复收支平衡。”
Republicans, who have used the deficit and debt issues as key points of criticism against President Obama and the Democrats, shared this concern.
共和党人一直以财政赤字和债务问题作为批评奥巴马总统及其民主党的主要论点，他们也抱有类似的忧虑。
Democrat John Spratt chairs the House Budget Committee, and Paul Ryan is its ranking Republican:
民主党人斯普拉特是众议院预算委员会主席，莱恩是国会内的基层共和党人。他们两人都发表了意见。
SPRATT: "What we do to make the economy better is likely to make the deficit worse. Yet, at the same time we cannot add infinitely to the national debt without facing the consequences in global credit marks or on our future capacity to borrow."
斯普拉特说：“我们为改善经济状况而采取的行动很可能导致财政赤字进一步扩大。但是与此同时，要是我们无限度地增加国家债务，我们就必然在全球信贷市场面临信誉降低的后果，或者也会影响我们未来的借贷能力。”
RYAN: "The treasury is issuing record amounts of debt, over $2 trillion this year alone to support recording government spending and record deficits. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has injected an enormous amount of monetary stimulus into the economy and has even started purchasing longer-term treasury bonds in an attempt to lower borrowing costs and further ease financial conditions. This can be a dangerous policy mix - the Treasury is using debt, and the central bank is buying it."
共和党人莱恩说：“财政部发放的债券金额达最高记录，仅仅今年就超过了两万亿美元用来支撑破记录的政府支出和财政赤字。与此同时，美联储为刺激经济增长注入了巨额资金，甚至还开始购买长期财政债券，试图以此降低借贷费用并进一步缓解金融困境，这是一种危险的混合方针，即财政部在使用债款，而中央银行却在购买债券。”
The Obama administration has estimated that the budget deficit this fiscal year will total $1.8 trillion. That number is projected to decline to $900 billion in 2011.
奥巴马政府已经估计这一财政年度的赤字总金额将达1万8千亿美元，这一赤字预计将在2011年下降到9千亿美元。
In his testimony, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke offered what he called an important caveat to projections about recovery. He said they assume a continuing gradual repair of the financial system, and an improvement of credit conditions.
美联储主席伯南克在证词中对经济复苏预测提出了他所谓的重要告诫。他说，金融体制会不断修整，信贷条件会不断改进。
Any financial sector relapse [deterioration], he added, could create a significant drag on economic activity and cause "the incipient recovery" to stall.
他还说，金融部门的任何状况恶化，都可能危及经济活动，并导致刚开始的经济复苏停滞不前。 |