The top U.S. military officer says critics who claim it will take years to even have a chance to defeat the Afghan insurgency ignore the fact that a similar counterinsurgency strategy turned around a similarly difficult situation in Iraq in 2007. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, spoke to reporters traveling with him to South and Central Asia Thursday.
Admiral Mullen acknowledges that it may take years to fully defeat the Afghan insurgency. But he says that is not what the United States expects to accomplish by this time next year, when President Barack Obama has said he will begin to withdraw U.S. troops. But Mullen says the year-and-a-half the president allowed for the new strategy to prove itself is adequate.
美国参谋长联席会议主席马伦上将承认，完全打败阿富汗叛乱分子需要几年的时间。他说，这不是美国预期在明年这个时候实现的目标。明年7月是奥巴马总统设定的美军开始撤军的日期。但是马伦说，总统留出一年半时间来证明新策略的有效性，这是合适的。
"Insurgencies last a long time," said Mullen. "But, as you look at how long it took to turn Iraq around, it was about 18 months. Now, we're about two-and-a-half years later, and we're still working in Iraq. But it was sort of that period of time where it really turned. Turning it doesn't end it, [but] you've got to turn it to get it moving in the right direction."
他说：“叛乱行为会持续很长时间。但是如果你看看扭转伊拉克的局势需要多长时间，那大约是18个月。现在，2年半后，我们仍在伊拉克行动。但是局势真正出现扭转用了大约18个月时间。扭转并不意味着结束，但是你必须扭转形势使它朝正确方向发展。”
The admiral says the situation in Iraq seemed impossible to resolve a few years ago, and, although the two countries are very different, and progress in Iraq is not a guarantee of progress in Afghanistan, it does give him reason to be hopeful about Afghanistan - even during the current period of heavy violence and, at best, slow progress.
马伦上将说，几年前伊拉克局势看起来根本无法解决。虽然伊拉克和阿富汗有很大不同，而且伊拉克的进展并不能保证在阿富汗也会取得进展，但这使他有理由对阿富汗的未来抱有希望，尽管目前仍存在严重暴力，而且局势进展缓慢。
"There are similarities and differences between Iraq and Afghanistan, and I understand that," added Mullen. "But I don't accept the fact that, just because it takes insurgencies a long, long time [to be defeated], that we're not at a point where it can't be turned, because I think it can. It doesn't mean it's going to be easy. But, I think it can be [turned] over the period of time that we're talking about."
他说：“我很清楚，伊拉克和阿富汗的情况有相同之处，也有不一样的地方。但是如果因为需要很长时间才能击败叛乱活动，就说我们现在不能扭转局面，我不认同这种看法。因为我认为局面能够被扭转。这不意味着能轻而易举实现，但我认为在我们所说的这段时间里，形势是可以好转的。”
U.S. officials acknowledge that, even if the situation in Afghanistan begins to turn during the next 12 months, the U.S. withdrawal will likely be very gradual, and some number of international troops will be needed in Afghanistan for many years to come.
美国官员承认，即使阿富汗局势在今后12个月里开始好转，美军撤离也很可能是非常缓慢的，而且阿富汗在未来很多年仍将需要一定数量的国际部队。
Admiral Mullen welcomed the statement by Afghan President Hamid Karzai this week that he wants his forces to be able to take responsibility for security in the country by 2014. Mullen said the goal sounds reasonable and that it is important for leaders to set such targets to focus the efforts of their governments.
马伦对阿富汗总统卡尔扎伊这星期发表的谈话表示欢迎。卡尔扎伊说，他希望在2014年前，阿富汗军队有能力承担起自己国家的安全责任。马伦说，这个目标听上去是恰当的，领导人设定这样的目标，使政府有工作重点，非常重要。
The admiral spoke as he flew toward New Delhi, where Afghanistan will be among many issues he will discuss with Indian defense officials. It will be on the agenda again when he visits Pakistan later in the week, before heading into the war zone itself.
马伦是在飞往新德里途中发表上述谈话的。他将同印度国防官员讨论包括阿富汗形势在内的一系列问题。马伦本周晚些时候访问巴基斯坦时也将讨论阿富汗问题。马伦此后将前往阿富汗战区。 |