The Russia-Georgia conflict has put Turkey in a tight spot. Will Turkey side with the United States, its NATO ally, and let more U.S. military ships into the Black Sea to assist Georgia? Or will it choose Russia which also shares a Black Sea coast with Turkey? Ever since Turkey joined NATO in 1952, it has hoped to never have to make a choice between the alliance and its Russian neighbor to the north.
俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚的冲突把土耳其置于尴尬的处境。土耳其会支持其北约盟友美国，允许更多美国军舰进入黑海为格鲁吉亚提供援助呢？还是会选择支持跟土耳其共享同一片黑海海域的俄罗斯呢？自从土耳其1952年加入北约以来，土耳其一直希望永远不要在北约盟国和北边的邻国俄罗斯之间做出抉择。
Turkey has been playing the role of mediator between various parties in the region: the United States and Iran; Israel and Syria; Pakistan and Afghanistan. But as more U.S. warships pass through the narrow Turkish-controlled strait into the Black Sea to deliver aid to Georgia, a time for choosing sides may have arrived.
土耳其一直在该地区各方之间扮演调停人的角色，包括美国和伊朗之间，以色列和叙利亚之间，以及巴基斯坦和阿富汗之间。不过，随着越来越多的美国军舰通过土耳其控制的狭长海峡进入黑海，给格鲁吉亚送去援助物资，土耳其要在美国和俄罗斯之间做出选择的时刻可能已经到来了。
Last weekend, U.S. warships used the Turkish straits to deliver aid to Georgia. A Russian official condemned the move and warned Turkey it was obliged to enforce the rules of an agreement that gives a 21 day limit on any warship from a country that does not border the Black Sea.
上个周末，美国军舰通过土耳其控制的海峡给格鲁吉亚运送援助。俄罗斯官员谴责了这一行动，并警告土耳其必须执行一项协议，对非黑海沿岸国家的军舰进入黑海实行21天的限期。
The Turkish government is responsible for policing the 32-kilometer Bosporus, the only route for ships traveling to the Black Sea, under the Montreux agreement of 1936. The Bosporus provides sole access for ships to Georgia's Black Sea ports.
根据1936年签订的蒙特勒协议，土耳其政府负责管辖32公里长的博斯普鲁斯海峡，这是船只进入黑海的唯一通道。博斯普鲁斯海峡也是船只抵达格鲁吉亚黑海各港口的唯一入口。
International relations expert Soli Ozel of Istanbul's Bilgi University said this has put Turkey in a precarious position.
伊斯坦布尔比尔基大学国际关系专家厄泽尔表示，这种情况将土耳其置于危险的境地。
"Turkey is a NATO member and is also a neighbor of Georgia's and great supporter of Georgia both economically and militarily," he said. "And Turkey controls the passage from and to the Black Sea. Therefore whatever happens next Turkey is going to find itself impacted by the developments."
厄泽尔说：“土耳其是北约成员国，也是格鲁吉亚的邻国，从经济和军事方面都是格鲁吉亚重要的支持者。土耳其又控制着进出黑海的通道。因此，接下来不论发生什么情况，土耳其都会发现自己受到事态发展的连累。”
Also at stake is Turkey's trade relations with Russia. Turkey's trades more goods with Russia than any other country, mostly because of Turkey's dependence on Russian gas.
土耳其跟俄罗斯的贸易关系也将受到威胁。土耳其跟俄罗斯的商品进出口贸易超过任何其它国家，这主要因为土耳其依赖俄罗斯的天然气。
"We have very good economic relations with Russia," said Ozel. "Our trade is over $10 billion and we are overly dependent on Russian gas at 64 percent and 40 percent for Russia oil."
厄泽尔说：“我们跟俄罗斯的经济关系非常好。两国之间的年贸易额超过100亿美元，我们大量依赖俄罗斯的天然气和石油，我们从俄罗斯进口64%的天然气和40%的石油。”
Turkey has been trying to boost trade with Moscow as it struggles with a current account deficit that's growing as energy costs soar.
能源支出的不断高涨使土耳其国际收支中的经常帐户出现逆差。为了扭转贸易赤字，土耳其一直争取增加跟俄罗斯的贸易。
But Russia has introduced new custom regulations which, according to the Turkish trade minister Kursad Tuzmen, could cost Turkey as much as $3 billion. Tuzmen attacked the regulations as political, saying Moscow may be punishing it for allowing the U.S. ships to pass through the Bosporus.
不过，据土耳其贸易部长图兹曼介绍，俄罗斯实行了新的海关规定，可能让土耳其成本增加30亿美元。图兹曼抨击这项新的海关规定有政治目的，他说莫斯科可能利用新的海关规定对土耳其允许美国军舰通过博斯普鲁斯海峡进行惩罚。
Tuzman said that on September 1 Turkey will impose curbs on Russian exports and withdraw support for its membership of the World Trade Organization.
图兹曼说，土耳其将于9月1号开始对从俄罗斯进口的商品实行限制，并且不再支持俄罗斯加入世界贸易组织。
But a Turkish diplomatic source said that Ankara is determined not to be drawn into the conflict. Much of the Turkish media is also calling for a neutral stance.
不过土耳其外交消息人士说，安卡拉决心不卷入这场冲突。大多数土耳其媒体都呼吁土耳其保持中立。
With the Turkish prime minister visiting Moscow and Tbilisi, Ankara is now working hard to secure peace. Soli Ozel doesn't believe such efforts have much chance of success, but still thinks they are important.
土耳其总理访问了莫斯科和第比利斯，极力维护和平。厄泽尔认为，这些努力不大可能成功，但他仍然认为这些努力非常重要。
"For the moment I see it as an empty shell and as a good will gesture. If anything comes out of it will be good, and if nothing comes out of it no one will blame Turkey," said Ozel. "It is better than what the Europeans can and would do anyway."
厄泽尔说：“从现在看，我认为这些努力只是空架子，是一种友善的姿态。如果有结果的话那当然好，如果没有任何结果，谁也不能责怪土耳其，总比欧洲人能够和愿意做的那些好。”
This weekend Georgia's foreign minister, Eka Tkeshelashvili, is due to visit Turkey, while his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, is expected next week. While few people give little chance of any breakthrough, experts say the real motive behind such efforts is for Turkey to balance its relations between Russia and the West. But with another U.S. warship headed to the Black Sea this weekend, those efforts are predicted to get increasingly difficult.
格鲁吉亚外长特克舍拉什维利定于这个周末访问土耳其，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫则于下星期到土耳其访问。尽管几乎没有人认为这些访问会取得任何突破，但是专家认为，对于土耳其来说，这类努力背后的真正动机是平衡同俄罗斯和西方国家之间的关系。不过，这个周末又有一艘美国军舰将驶入黑海，预计，上述努力会遇到越来越大的难度。 |