Thailand's central bank hopes to help the country's beleaguered exporters by allowing more investment overseas part of a strategy to cheapen the Thai baht. Thailand market analysts doubt the plan will offer much respite from the global economic slump.
泰国中央银行希望通过扩大海外投资达到泰铢贬值的目的，从而 给处境困难的出口商提供帮助。根据美国之音记者科尔本的报导，泰国市场分析师对于这项计划是否能够缓解出口业在这场全球经济衰退中遇到的困难持怀疑的态度。
Thailand is suffering its most severe downturn in a decade. The Bank of Thailand reports industrial production fell for an eighth consecutive month in June.
泰国现在正面临十年来最严重的一次经济衰退。泰国银行的报告显示，今年六月份是工业生产持续下滑的第八个月。
The slide reflects falling global demand for automobiles and processed food, two of the country's biggest exports.
生产的下滑反映了全球对于汽车和加工食品需求的下降，这两项都是泰国最大的出口产品。
Exports, which account for about 60 percent of the economy, fell by more than 25 percent in June. Imports were also lower by 25 percent - a sign the local economy remains weak.
占泰国经济60%的出口在今年六月下跌了25%。进口的降幅为25%，显示本国经济依然疲软。
The Bank of Thailand warns the economy could contract more than four percent this year.
泰国银行已经发出警告，今年全国经济可能会收缩4%以上。
Thai industrialists want the central bank to help weaken the baht to make Thai exports cheaper on the international market.
泰国企业界人士希望中央银行能够降低泰铢币值，使泰国出口产品变得更加便宜，加强出口的国际竞争力。
This week the central bank said it would allow more companies to invest overseas, especially in foreign securities and bonds, as a way to weaken the baht. In theory, if companies sell the baht to buy investments overseas, that will reduce its value.
中央银行在本周表示，将会允许更多的公司到海外投资，特别是投资国外的证券和债券，从而达到货币贬值的目的。理论上说，如果企业拿出泰铢，买进海外投资的话，泰铢的价值便会下跌。
But Supavud Saicheua, an economist with stock brokerage Phatra Securities, says that may not help.
但是帕塔拉证券公司股市业务员苏帕伍.塞伊查(Supavid Saicheua)说，这样做可能起不了什么作用。
"Bottom line is we still have a large trade surplus," he said. "The trade surplus is derived from the fact that imports have not grown and imports have not grown because domestic demand has been relatively weak. And because you have a trade surplus it's very difficult for the baht to weaken."
“根本的问题是我们仍有很大的贸易顺差。顺差来自进口缺乏增长。这主要是国内需相对疲软因此，在拥有贸易顺差的情况下进行货币贬值是非常困难的。”
The Thai auto sector has been hard hit by the downturn. Auto production in June was down more than 40 percent from a year ago, and exports of all vehicles, including motorbikes, have fallen more than 40 percent in value in the past year.
泰国汽车业在这次的金融衰退中受创甚深。今年六月的汽车产量相较一年前下跌了40%，去年一整年包括自行车在内的所有交通工具出口总值下降了40%。
Vallop Tiasri, president of the Thailand Automotive Institute, is pessimistic about the central bank's plan.
泰国汽车中心(Thailand Artomotive Insitute)总裁瓦洛普.堤亚斯里对于央行的政策抱持悲观的态度。
"I don't think it's easy in this economic situation, in this economic crisis situation, to invest in another country," he noted. "That also makes me surprised that you can push the Thai company to bring the money to invest into another country, the weak or weaker economies.
“我认为在这样的经济环境中，特别是在这样经济危机的形势下，到国外投资是很不容易的。在这个时候鼓励泰国公司拿钱投资到别的经济体，我非常意外。这些经济体自己都很疲软，甚至比泰国还疲软。”
But the government and economists say there are grounds for optimism. The government predicts the economy will begin to recover in the next few months.
但是，政府和经济学家们却表示，乐观还是有根据的。政府预期经济将会在未来几个月开始复苏。
Vikas Kawatra is a senior analyst with Kim Eng Securities. He says there are signs that Thai exporters are moving away from markets such as the United States, because of gains in some regional markets.
维卡斯.卡瓦特拉(Vikas Kawatra)是金英证券公司(Kim Eng Securities)的资深分析员。他表示，泰国出口企业正在离开美国这样的市场，因为它们在其它地区的市场上获得了进展。
"Thailand does have a lot dependency on exports," he explained. "But of late it has been shifting its focus from the U.S. to other regional markets. So long as Asia keeps doing well, Thailand will not be as badly hurt and Asia could lead the recovery this time pretty much for the entire world."
“泰国的确非常依赖出口。但最近泰国已经把重心移出美国转到其它的区域市场。所以只要亚洲情况保持良好，泰国受到的冲击就不会那么大。亚洲这次很有可能会带动全球走出经济危机。”
The Asian Development Bank recently said it appears emerging East Asia economies already are moving toward recovery thanks to the government stimulus packages.
亚洲开发银行日前表示，由于政府的刺激方案发挥效用，东亚的经济已经开始恢复。 |