After months of massive government spending, some economies in Asia have emerged from recession. But officials and business experts say it is not yet time for euphoria.
经过几个月的大规模政府支出项目，一些亚洲国家和地区的经济开始摆脱衰退。但是一些政府官员和经济专家说，现在还没有到欢庆的时刻。
Japan - the world's second largest economy - grew about one percent in the three months ending in June, compared with the preceding quarter. That was a relief to Japanese economic officials who had feared a prolonged slump.
世界第二大经济体日本今年第二季度的经济比上一季度增长了大约1%，令担心经济衰退持续恶化的日本经济官员松了一口气。
Still, recent data leave cause for concern. Japan's exports continue to plunge and unemployment is at record highs. Hideaki Hirata, an economist at Hosei University in Tokyo, says the bigger picture still looks daunting.
不过，最近公布的一些统计数字仍不能让人完全放心。日本的出口继续大幅下降，失业率连创历史新高。日本东京的法政大学的经济学家平田英明说，总体经济状况仍然相当严峻。
"Quarterly comparison may not be appropriate in this kind of situation," Hirata said. "The level of GDP [gross domestic product] is extremely lower than the level in the last year. Yeah, it hit the bottom but it is a very deep bottom. So maybe the recovery needs at least two or three years."
他说：“在这种形势下，对季度进行比较也许并不合适。近年的国内生产总值大大低于去年。不错，这已经到了谷底，但这是一个深渊。所以，也许需要两到三年的时间经济才能复苏。”
Fearing a deep recession, Japan's government last year gave billions of dollars in subsidies and cash to Japanese consumers, encouraging them to shop to compensate for the collapse of exports to the West.
日本政府担心发生严重经济衰退，去年以补贴和现金的方式向日本消费者提供了大笔资金，鼓励他们多购物，以弥补对西方国家出口急剧减少造成的问题。
Hirata says the subsidies appear to have worked as consumption rose, and so did China's purchases of Japanese goods. China surpassed the United States as the top destination of Japanese goods in the first six months of the year.
平田英明说，看来，政府补贴有成效，消费增加了，中国从日本的进口也增加了。今年上半年，中国超越美国，成为进口日本产品最多的国家。
"Japan was helped by [the] strong demand of China," Hirata said. "But if we look at exports data in detail, exports to U.S. and European countries are still weak."
他说：“日本得益于中国强劲的需求。但是如果我们详细的查看一下出口统计，对美国和欧洲国家的出口仍然疲软。”
Some economists say China could drive the recovery in Asia. Beijing's $600 billion stimulus package helped the economy expand more than seven percent in the most recent quarter. The decline in Chinese exports has been slowing, and factory activity, as measured by electricity consumption, has started to pick up from the lows at the end of last year.
一些经济学家说，中国可能带动亚洲经济复苏。北京的6000亿美元经济刺激计划导致中国第二季度的经济增长了7%以上。中国出口下降的速度有所减缓，根据电力消耗推算的工业生产也从去年年底的低水平上有所上升。
Jing Ulrich is chairwoman of China equities and commodities at the investment bank JP Morgan in Hong Kong.
香港摩根大通银行的中国证券市场部总监李晶说：
"If you look around from Japan to Korea to Southeast Asian countries, China is their single largest trading partner," Ulrich said. "As China imports more commodities from resource-rich countries such as Indonesia, and China also imports capital goods from the likes of Japan and South Korea, intermediate components from Taiwan, from Thailand - I think China will absolutely play a critical role in a regional economic recovery."
“从日本到韩国，再到东南亚国家，中国都是它们最大的贸易伙伴。随着中国从印度尼西亚等资源丰富的国家进口更多产品，从日本和韩国等国家进口资本产品，以及从台湾和泰国进口中级产品，我认为中国在地区经济发展上绝对将发挥关键作用。”
The heavy government spending in some Asian economies that started last year is producing results. South Korea's economy expanded two-point-three percent in the last quarter and consumer confidence rebounded to a seven-year high in August. The government has budgeted more than $23 billion since November to pump up the economy.
一些亚洲国家去年开始的大规模政府支出项目正产生效果。韩国经济上一季度增长了2.3%，消费者信心8月份反弹至7年以来的最高点。韩国政府从去年11月以来为刺激经济制定了230亿美元的预算拨款。
Lee Junkyu, senior advisor in international affairs at the Ministry of Strategy and Finance in Seoul, says government spending has helped, but there could be some risks ahead.
韩国企划财政部的国际事务高级顾问李博士说，政府支出有所帮助，但是今后还有可能出现风险。
"Government cannot continue its major role, it's not forever…. We need to see the private sector's vitality again," Lee said. "And also I may point [out], there are other risks to the outlook, another bout of global risk aversion and rising oil prices or commodity prices."
李博士说：“政府不能继续发挥主要作用，它不能永远这样做。我们需要看到私营企业振兴。另外，我认为未来仍有风险，例如全球再次发生危机以及石油和商品价格上涨。”
The global economic downturn has severely hurt Asia's export economies, because consumers from large markets like the U.S and Europe cut back on spending.
全球经济滑坡严重损害了出口型亚洲国家，因为美国和欧洲等大市场的消费者减少了消费。
Export-reliant Singapore and Thailand saw their economies expand slightly in the second quarter from the first quarter. But output for both economies is well below levels from last year.
依赖出口的新加坡和泰国的第二季度经济比第一季度略有上涨。但是这两个国家的总体产出都大大低于去年。
The Chinese territory of Hong Kong slipped out of recession in the second quarter. Hong Kong handles a significant amount of exports being shipped out of China. But government economist Helen Chan remains cautious. She spoke through a translator.
中国的香港特区在第二季度摆脱经济衰退。有很多的中国产品都转借香港出口。香港政府的经济学家陈女士持审慎乐观态度。
"This is the initial stage of an economic rebound. We are not yet going to have a sound basis for an overall improvement, investment remains slack and swine flu has dealt a blow to tourism. Unemployment will remain serious and is a deteriorating situation in the coming months. We should remain vigilant to [about] our economic situation in the coming months."
她说：“这是经济反弹的初期阶段。我们还不具备经济全面改善的牢固基础。投资仍然疲软，H1N1甲型流感打击了旅游业。失业仍将是一个严重问题，今后数月将会进一步恶化。我们应该继续密切关注今后几个月的经济状况。”
Patrick Low, the chief economist of the World Trade Organization, says the recovery seen in Asia is still "tentative".
世界贸易组织的首席经济学家劳乌说，目前在亚洲看到的经济复苏仍然是暂时的。
"We're not quite through the woods yet," Low said. "Unemployment is still rising pretty much everywhere. And looks like it will continue to rise through next year."
劳乌说：“我们还没有走出(经济衰退的)密林。基本上所有地区的失业率还在上升，看来这种状况会持续到明年。”
He says the massive government stimulus spending could bring inflation. Rising prices could discourage consumers from buying, and that, he says, could again undermine economic growth.
他说，大规模的政府支出项目会带来通货膨胀。价格上涨会导致消费者减少消费。他说，这就会影响经济成长。 |