As 2009 draws to a close, more signs show that China has weathered the global financial crisis and is on its way to even more robust growth. Economists, however, say some issues still weigh on the country's efforts to sustain growth.
2009年已经接近尾声，越来越多的迹象显示中国渡过了全球金融危机，而且增长的势头愈发强劲。不过，一些经济学家表示，中国要保持可持续增长，仍然有一些问题需要解决。
New economic data show that China's gross domestic product is expected to grow by more than eight percent this year. Industrial output for November grew just over 19 percent compared with a year ago, just after the financial crisis began. Imports soared nearly 27 percent, fueled by government spending on commodities.
新的经济数据显示，今年中国国内生产总值的增长有望超过8%。11月份，工业产出比去年同期，即金融危机初始时期上涨了19%以上。政府购买物资也推动进口暴涨近27%。
But while exports show signs of recovery, they remain weak. In November, they were down about one percent from a year ago.
虽然出口显现出复苏迹象，但是仍然比较脆弱。11月份，中国出口额同比下降约1%。
Michael Pettis, an associate for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a finance professor at Peking University, says that the figures fuel debate over the country's economic strength.
华盛顿卡内基和平基金会高级研究员、北京大学金融教授迈克尔·佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)表示，上述数据引发有关中国经济能否持续增长的争论。
"If you're an optimist it suggests that recovery is continuing," Pettis said. "Most of the numbers look reasonably good. There were still some excessively high levels of investment especially fixed asset investments. But production numbers were good etc. If you're a pessimist you would say yeah, this is exactly what you would expect from a massive-over investment strategy."
“如果你是乐观主义者，这些数据显示复苏还在继续。大多数数据看上去不错。在某些领域，特别是不动产领域，投资水平仍然过高。但是工业产出的数据也不错。不过，如果你比较悲观，你会说， 这正是大规模投资战略应该产生的效果。”
Some business experts worry that exports will become a smaller part of the economy. Factories face rising labor and overhead costs, and there are expectations the currency, the yuan will appreciate, so business leaders say keeping the sector afloat remains a challenge for the government.
一些业内人士担心，出口在中国经济中所占的比例将越来越小。工厂面临不断上升的劳动力成本和间接成本，而人民币也可望升值。因此，业内人士说，对政府来说，要让出口部门得以维持仍然是个挑战。
Stanley Lau, deputy chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, which represents Hong Kong businesses in China, says factories face weak foreign demand.
香港在大陆企业的代表、香港工业总会副主席刘展灏 (Stanley Lau)说， 工厂面临外国需求疲弱的问题。
"First of all, generally still, many importers do not know what will be the outcome for Christmas sales," Lau noted. "Which means many customers are still waiting for final figures to come out for Christmas sales. That's why they don't give us an order for next year yet. I think they need to wait and see until the New Year holidays and they will plan for order for next year."
“首先，很多进口商现在还不知道圣诞节销售的结果，这就意味着很多客户现在还在等圣诞节销售的最后数据。这就是他们到现在还没有给我们下一年订单的原因。我想，他们需要等到新年假期后，才会制定明年的订单计划。”
As export demand started to fall last year, China's government began efforts to stimulate the economy - cutting interest rates, encouraging lending and spending hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure projects.
随着去年出口的下降，中国政府采取了一系列措施来刺激经济，包括削减利率、鼓励借贷，并在基础建设项目上投资了数千亿美元。
But some economists warn those efforts may be causing prices for real estate, stocks and other assets to rise too fast - like a bubble that could burst. They say that China's loose credit, over-investment and under-consumption has led to a potential hazard, particularly in the property market.
但是，一些经济学家警告说，这些措施可能会造成房地产、股票和其他资产价格上涨过快，引发泡沫。他们说中国的宽松信贷、过度投资、以及消费不足都会导致潜在的危害，特别是在房地产领域。
However, the government has begun trying to slow things down. Figures from the Banking Regulatory Commission show that in 2009 new lending will hit about $1.3 trillion, but next year it will fall to about $1.1 trillion. That is still double 2008 lending.
不过，政府已开始试图收紧这些举措。中国银行业监督管理委员会发布的数据显示，2009年新增贷款总额将达到1.3万亿美元，而明年则会降到1.1万亿美元。不过这仍将比2008年的水平高出一倍。
The government also is trying to cool the overheated property market, with a new sales tax on properties sold within five years of purchase. And there are plans to increase the supply of middle to low-priced housing to curb property speculation.
政府也在采取措施给过热的房地产市场降温：明年个人住房转让营业税征免时限由2年恢复到5年；另外，政府也有计划增加中低价位房屋的供应，以遏制房地产市场的投机行为。
Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai, warns China's property market could suffer once the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank raises interest rates, which would affect lending around the world.
上海独立经济学家谢国忠(Andy Xie)警告说，如果美国联邦储备委员会提升利率，这将影响到全球借贷，中国房地产市场也不会例外。
"When inflation happens the Fed will have to raise interest rates substantially, which will lead to a global asset bubble popping and there will be another global crisis. And this global crisis may rival the one we just saw," he said.
“当通货膨胀显现时，美联储将不得不大幅度提升利率，进而导致全球房地产市场泡沫破裂。这将会是另一场全球性危机。而这个危机可能不亚于我们刚刚经历的危机。”
Economists such as Xie and Pettis warn that governments must move carefully as they wind down stimulus packages. Raising interest rates and cutting spending too soon could easily shock economies and cause asset prices to collapse.
谢国忠和佩蒂斯等经济学家都警告，各国政府在削减经济刺激计划时都必须小心谨慎。太快提升利率和减少消费都很容易导致经济震荡，并引发资产价格的崩溃。 |