Economists are forecasting a rosier 2010 for global finances than this year has been. But they warn that the economic recovery remains fragile and will not be led by the world's advanced industrialized nations.
经济学家们预测，2010年的全球金融状况要好过今年。但是，他们警告说，经济复苏仍然脆弱，而且不会由发达工业化国家引领。
2009 began with a sinking global economy paralyzed by a worldwide credit crunch, stung by a cascading failure of banks and financial institutions, and undermined by panic and pessimism on the part of consumers and investors from Wall Street to Tokyo. Central banks and governments fought back with massive cash injections, financial rescue packages and stimulus programs, but success in containing the crisis was far from assured.
2009年初，全球经济由于信贷紧缩而处于下行状态。银行和金融机构的破产此起彼伏。从华尔街到东京的投资者以及全球消费者都陷入恐慌和悲观。各国央行和政府通过大量注资、金融拯救、以及经济刺激计划等方式对抗经济下行。但遏制危机取得的成功并不确定。
Days before becoming U.S. president, Barack Obama warned of the economic perils ahead.
奥巴马总统在就职的前几天针对经济风险发出了警告。
"In short, a bad situation could become dramatically worse," Mr. Obama said.
他说：“简而言之，糟糕的形势可能会变得更加严峻。”
The global economy is expected to show a 1.1 percent drop in output for 2009, following a five percent expansion in 2007 and three percent growth in 2008.
全球经济在2007年增长5%和2008年增长3%后，可能会在今年收缩1.1%。
The past year has seen sharp spikes in unemployment, which peaked at 10.2 percent in the United States, 9.8 percent in Europe, 9 percent in Brazil and 5.7 percent in Japan.
过去一年里，全球失业率激增。美国失业率最高时达到10.2%，欧洲达到9.8%，巴西9%，日本5.7%。
But a turnaround is underway, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.
但美国财政部长盖特纳认为，转机已经出现。
"The U.S. economy and the world economy are now growing again. Businesses are starting to invest again, consumers are now spending, business and consumer confidence has improved, global trade is now expanding at an encouraging pace," Geithner said.
他说：“美国经济和世界经济现在恢复了增长。企业又开始投资，消费者开始花钱，商业和消费者信心开始改善，全球贸易正在以令人鼓舞的速度扩大。”
But analysts warn that perils remain, and badly needed financial reforms in the United States and elsewhere have yet to be implemented.
但是，分析人士支出，风险仍然存在。美国和其它地方急需进行的金融系统改革尚未实施。
Mark Zandi is Chief Economist at Moody's Economy.com.
"You know policymakers have done a lot of good work stabilizing the financial system, but they have not changed anything fundamentally. And until they do, the risk of another financial panic in our future is still very high," Zandi said.
“我们知道决策者在稳定金融系统方面做了大量有益工作。但是，他们没有从根本上改变任何事情。在作出这种改变之前，未来发生新一轮金融恐慌的风险仍然非常大。”
Policymakers must also decide when to wind down unprecedented levels of government stimulus and financial support. Those measures were deemed necessary in the face of an economic crisis, but can spark inflation if sustained for too long.
决策者们必须决定何时逆转史无前例的政府刺激计划和金融救助。这些措施在经济危机过程中被认为是必要举措。但是如果维持时间过长，则可能引发通胀。
Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Igor Shuvalov:
俄罗斯副总理舒瓦洛夫说：
"I think this year, it would be more about how to live after the crisis. What to do with exit policies and whether all of us carry on with fiscal stimulus or when we exit and on what conditions," Shuvalov said.
“我认为，今年我们更多关注的是如何在危机后生活?怎么样施行退出计划?我们是否应该继续推进财政刺激?何时退出?在什么条件下退出？”
The global economic downturn struck advanced industrialized nations particularly hard, providing an opening for rising economic powers like India and China to shine on the world stage, according to World Bank President Robert Zoellick.
世界银行行长佐利克说，全球经济下行对发达工业化国家的打击尤其大。这给印度和中国等新兴经济强国提供了一个在世界舞台上发挥重要作用的机会。
"India is now a rising economic power that handled the recent economic crisis very well. It has contributed to world economic stability and could become the pole [focus] of global economic growth over time," Zoellick said.
佐利克说：“印度现在是崛起的经济强国。印度很好地处理了最近的经济危机。印度对世界经济稳定作出了贡献。假以时日，印度可能会成为全球经济增长的一个重心。”
For many nations, the passing of the financial crisis means attention must be refocused on long-term problems that preceded the global recession. In the United States, massive government debt continues to grow at a time when an aging population is placing ever-greater demands on social welfare programs.
对很多国家来说，金融危机的消退意味着重新关注全球衰退前就已经存在的长期问题。在美国，政府债务持续增加。而与此同时，人口老化进一步加剧了社会福利项目的负担。
In much of the developing world, such as in Kenya, other challenges must be tackled, according to World Bank Vice President for Africa Obiageli Ezekwesili.
负责非洲事务的世行副行长奥比亚加利·艾泽克维斯利说，发展中世界的大部分地区，比如说在肯尼亚，还要应对一些其它的挑战。
"In terms of competitiveness in the new global environment, Kenya will have absolutely no choice but to tackle the most important constraint to its development. It has been corruption," Ezekwesili said.
他说：“就新的全球环境下的竞争力而言，肯尼亚毫无选择，只能解决束缚其经济发展的最重要因素。也就是腐败。”
Unlike in past economic rebounds, the United States is not in a position to drive global growth, according to the World Bank's Robert Zoellick.
佐利克说，和以往经济反弹不同，美国现在无力带动全球增长。
"In every past economic crisis, what you have had is the U.S. consumer and the purchasing start the ball rolling again," Zoellick said. "And that consumption leads to increased business demand and investment on the business side. Most economists expect that is not going to be the case, this time."
他说：“在过去的每次经济危机当中，我们看到的是美国消费者开支启动反弹。消费引起商业需求和商业投资的增加。但是这一次，大多数经济学家认为我们不会看到这个场面。”
Instead of advanced industrialized nations leading the way, analysts say global economic growth will likely be powered by rapid expansion in countries like China and India, with contributions also coming from lesser-developed nations.
分析人士说，在发达国家无法成为经济引擎的情况下，增长很可能会由中国和印度等国的快速扩张来带动。一些更不发达的国家也会为增长作出贡献。 |