Fragile stability appears to be returning to Bahrain following anti-government protests that recently brought the Persian Gulf kingdom to a standstill. However, analysts say economic uncertainty is likely to linger on.
近期发生的反政府抗议活动令巴林陷入停滞状态。这个波斯湾王国现在看起来开始回到脆弱的稳定。但是，分析人士说，巴林经济上的不稳定仍可能持续一段时间。
The streets of the capital Manama’s business district are bustling once again, less than a month after opposition activists set up barricades in the area and Gulf military forces were brought in to help restore order.
巴林首都麦纳麦商业区的街道再度变得熙熙攘攘。就在此前不到一个月的时候，反对派活动人士在这个地区设立了路障，而海湾军队也来到这里维持秩序。
On Sunday, Prime Minister Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa announced that life in the country was getting back to normal.
星期天，首相哈利法·本·萨勒曼·阿勒哈利法宣布，该国生活恢复正常。
But while many Bahraini residents seem to be carrying on with their day-to-day activities, the general consensus among financial experts is that the nation’s economy will have a much more difficult time shrugging off the effects of civil unrest.
但是当许多巴林居民看上去继续他们的日常活动时，金融专家们普遍认为，这个国家的经济要摆脱内乱的影响，却没有那么简单。
The international rating agency Capital Intelligence lowered Bahrain’s credit ratings on Wednesday, describing the outlook as “negative”.
国际评级机构资本智力(Capital Intelligence)星期三(4月6日)下调了巴林的信用评级，称其投资前景为“负面”。
The nation is also widely expected to see slower growth than was previously predicted.
此外，分析普遍认为，巴林的增长预期也比此前预期的更缓慢。
A British expatriate who works in the capital and wished to remain anonymous, said the economic effects of the unrest are clearly visible.
一位不愿透露姓名的派驻麦纳麦的英国雇员说，动乱对经济造成的影响是显而易见的。
"There have been a lot of repercussions. I know a lot of people that have lost jobs. I know people that have had pay cuts unfortunately. The economy really suffered from this in such a short period of time and it’s amazing because it’s such a small country that the ripple effect of something like this can hit very, very quickly. But, Bahrain is a very strong country and I think it will get back together again," he said.
他说：“它的影响四处可见。据我所知，有很多人丢掉了工作。我还知道有些人的薪水也不幸被减。经济的确因此而受损，而且是发生在这么短的时间里，这真是令人惊讶。在这么一个小国家，这样的事件所引发的涟漪效应会非常非常迅速地形成冲击。但是，巴林是一个月非常坚强的国家，而且我认为它会再度恢复元气。”
Bahrain’s government is also remaining optimistic.
巴林政府也保持乐观的态度。
Jamal Fakhro, the vice chairman of the nation’s parliament, the Shura Council, believes the financial impacts of the crisis will be short-term.
巴林舒拉议会副主席贾马尔·法赫罗说，他相信危机对金融造成的影响将是短期性的。
"I would say the coming few months will tell us really how quickly we’ll be able to recover, but definitely, I don’t see big issues," said Fakhro.
他说：“可以说，今后的几个月我们将会知道我们恢复的速度真正会有多快。不过可以肯定的是，我没有看到什么大问题。”
Bahrain has one of the most diversified economies in the Gulf region, with financial services contributing to about 20 percent of GDP, eclipsing the contribution of the oil sector.
巴林是海湾地区经济最为多样化的国家之一。它的金融服务业占据GDP的20%，超过了石油业所占的比例。
Since Bahrain’s recent troubles began, it has been reported that a number of banks have been discussing the possibility of permanently relocating their operations to nearby Dubai, Abu Dhabi or Doha, but Farkho has played down the speculation.
从巴林近期的麻烦开始时，就有报导说不少银行开始讨论将其业务永久迁往临近城市迪拜、阿布扎比，或者多哈的可行性。但是法赫罗则淡化了这方面的猜测。
"Nobody has spoken about shifting their headquarters," he said. "What we have heard, and this is normal, is that certain banks and financial institutions have moved few of their people out of Bahrain. And banks have started to bring back their people and institutions started to have business as normal. But there is absolutely no single financial institution that has announced that they want to withdraw their operations from Bahrain."
他说：“没有人说过要把总部迁走。我们听到的消息是一些银行和金融机构让部分员工离开了巴林。这是很正常的。银行现在已经开始把它们的人调回来；金融机构的业务也开始恢复正常。 但是绝对没有一家金融机构宣称会把它们的业务撤出巴林。”
While existing companies may be staying put, many experts, like Jane Kinninmont from London-based Chatham House, say drawing new business to Bahrain is bound become much more difficult.
虽然现有的公司可能会留在那里，但是伦敦查塔姆研究所(Chatham House)的简·金尼蒙特(Jane Kinninmont)说，吸引新的商业公司到巴林来可能会变得更加困难。
"Unfortunately, the recent events will have damaged Bahrain’s ability to attract new investment and attract new talent to work in the financial services sector given that it does face stiff competition from Dubai, which hasn’t faced anything like the unrest," said Kinninmont.
她说：“不幸的是，由于有来自迪拜的激烈竞争，近期发生的事件将会损害到巴林吸引新投资，以及为它的金融业吸引新人才的能力。因为迪拜还没有遇到任何类似的动乱。”
Anti-government demonstrations began in Bahrain in mid-February, with protesters, mostly the nation’s majority Shi’ite Muslims, demanding more equalities and a more representative government from their Sunni rulers.
巴林今年2月中旬时开始出现反政府示威活动。抗议者大多数是本国的什叶派穆斯林。他们要求得到更公平的对待，并且在由逊尼派统治的政府中拥有更多代表权。
Human rights activists say an ensuing crackdown by authorities has left at least 27 people dead, on both sides, with nightly raids in Shi’ite neighborhoods still being reported.
人权活动人士说，当局随后采取的镇压措施导致双方有至少27人丧生；而且仍有报导说，什叶派社区遭到夜间突袭。
Bahrain has thanked its Gulf allies for sending in troops to help quell the protests and restore order. But despite a lull in opposition activity, Kinninmont says it is premature for the government to declare the country’s crisis over.
巴林感谢海湾同盟派出军队帮助平息抗议，恢复秩序。但是，金尼蒙特说，虽然反对派的活动平息了下来，但政府宣布国家危机结束还为时过早。
"They would be keen to say that the country is going back to normal and that that’s what the GCC troops are helping them to do, but unfortunately it’s really a case where a lot of discontent is being suppressed, but not being resolved. I think there is a need to restart the process of dialogue with a view to meaningful, political reforms, which are going to require some painful compromises from both sides. I don’t think the current security crackdown is a long-term solution in any way," said Kinninmont.
她说：“他们会急着说国家正在恢复正常，而且海湾部队也在帮助他们这样做。但不幸的是，真实情况是，大量的不满被压制住，但是没有得到解决。我认为有必要重新启动着眼于有意义的政治改革的对话。这将要求双方都做出一些痛苦的妥协。我认为眼下的安全镇压从任何意义上讲都不是长远的解决办法。”
Last month, Gulf States agreed to provide Bahrain with $10 billion over the next ten years to help with the financial implications of the unrest.
上个月，海湾国家同意在今后10年里为巴林提供100亿美元，为动荡对金融造成的影响提供帮助。 |