The political wrangling in Washington about federal budgets is likely to get more intense as the stakes rise from billions of dollars to trillions. Some of the focus is changing from a squabble over government spending for one year, to a bigger battle over the soaring debt accumulated over many years. Some of the bickering is over the "debt limit," an issue that is generally not well understood.
华盛顿关于联邦预算的政治争吵看来将愈演愈烈，涉及的预算金额已从数十亿美元上升到数万亿美元。争论的焦点也从本年度的政府开支扩展到了多年累积起来的政府债务。其中颇为引人注目的一个问题就是所谓的“债务限额”。
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says the stakes in the fight over the debt limit are very high.
美国财政部长盖特纳认为，有关债务限额的纷争所引起的风险非常高。
"The consequences would be catastrophic to the United States. Default by the United States would precipitate a crisis worse than the one we just went through," said Geithner. "I think it would make the crisis we just went through look modest in comparison."
盖特纳说：“其后果对于美国来说可能是灾难性的。美国政府如果违约，势必引起一场比我们刚刚经历的这场金融危机更加严重的危机。跟美国违约引起的危机相比，最近这场危机将是小巫见大巫。”
Geithner's point is that if Congress does not take action to raise the debt limit, current spending commitments and the need to refinance the government's earlier loans might force Washington to miss payments on existing U.S. debt. That could cause major economic problems because investors might drastically raise interest rates which would raise costs and compound the problem.
盖特纳财长的意思是：假如国会不采取行动提高债务上限，不增加当前的开支额度，不允许借新债还旧债，那么华盛顿就将被迫拖延偿还现存的欠债。那将造成重大的经济问题，因为投资者会因此而大幅提高利率，增加美国的借贷成本，使问题进一步恶化。
"[Default] would be a reckless and irresponsible act of this country. I find it inconceivable that Congress would not act to increase the limit," added Geithner.
盖特纳说：“违约等于这个国家在采取一种不计后果和不负责任的行动。我难以想象国会在提高债务限额问题上会无动于衷。”
For many years, Washington has been spending more than it takes in from taxes and other sources of revenue. That leaves a deficit in the annual budget. The government has to borrow money to cover the shortfall. All these annual deficits add up to the total debt.
多少年来，华盛顿一直都是入不敷出，实际支出总是大于税收和其他收入，结果年复一年预算赤字不断膨胀，政府只好通过借债来弥补财政漏洞。就这样，联邦债务一年接一年地扶摇直上。
Under U.S. law, the Treasury Department cannot borrow more money by issuing bonds unless Congress gives its approval by increasing the legal limit on borrowing. The current debt limit is more than $14 trillion, a sum nearly equivalent to all the goods and services produced in the United States in a year.
根据美国法律，除非国会批准提高法定的借贷限额，财政部不能通过发行债券来筹借更多的资金。目前的国债上限是14多万亿美元，差不多相当于美国一年的国内生产总值。
The government is expected to hit its debt limit next month.
预计美国政府的负债总额将在下个月达到上限。
There has been a debt limit law of some kind in the United States for nearly a century. During that time, the limit has been lowered on a few occasions, and raised more than 60 times.
美国的政府债务限额法已经有一百来年的历史了。在这期间，债务限额偶尔被降低过几次，但却被先后提高过60多次。
As the limit approaches Republicans are pressuring President Barack Obama and his Democratic Party allies in Congress to cut spending on social programs and keep taxes low. The Democrats want to deal with the debt by raising taxes on wealthy Americans and cutting military programs.
现在，随着国债总额再次接近债务上限，共和党人正向奥巴马总统及其在国会的民主党盟友施加压力，要求削减社会福利项目，并保持较低的税收。民主党人则要求通过增加对富裕美国人的税收和削减军事项目来解决债务问题。
A former high-ranking Treasury Department official, Timothy Bitsberger, says the two sides will eventually make a deal to avoid default, but only after a flood of rhetoric.
蒂莫西?比茨伯格(Timothy Bitsberger)曾经是美国财政部的高级官员。他表示，双方最终将达成协议以避免债务违约，但是在这之前，免不了一场激烈论战。
"There's a lot of political theater involved... I expect the Republicans will try to extract as much blood as they can as the debt negotiations go forward," said Bitsberger.
比茨伯格说：“大批政治角色会粉墨登场，随着债务谈判的进一步展开，我预期共和党人将试图争取到尽可能多的让步。”
Bitsberger spoke in an interview on the Bloomberg financial news service. He worked on debt limit issues at the Treasury Department during a previous Republican administration, and says deficits and debt have grown under both Republicans and Democrats.
比茨伯格是在接收彭博财经新闻采访时说这番活的。他过去在共和党政府的财政部任职时负责债务限额。他指出，不论是在共和党当政时期还是民主党当政时期，美国联邦政府的预算赤字和国家债务都是不断增长。
While there are deep divisions between the two political parties, the global credit-rating agency Fitch says the likelihood of a default is "extremely low."
虽然民主共和两党在债务问题上分歧严重，但是全球信用评级机构惠誉国际说，美国政府债务违约的可能性极低。
The top analyst on U.S. government debt at Moody's Investor Service, Steve Hess, says only an "astonishing miscalculation" by the government would lead to default. He says bickering over spending cuts may continue until the very last moment, and might force officials to take "Draconian" actions to manage short-term financial problems.
穆迪投资服务公司的高级分析师史迪夫?黑斯(Steve Hess)指出，只有在美国政府出现重大失误的情况下才有可能导致违约。他说，民主共和两党的争吵很有可能会持续到最后一分钟，迫使政府官员采取严厉措施来对付短期的财政问题。
Hess says if political squabbling really worried lenders, they would raise interest rates they charge on loans to Washington.
黑斯认为，如果两党的政治纷争真的令债权人感到担忧，他们会提高给华盛顿贷款的利率。但是目前还没有这种迹象。
"If you look at the market, it does not seem that the wrangling so far has had a big effect on the government's cost of borrowing," noted Hess.
黑斯说：“假如你看一看市场，迄今为止，这些争吵并没有对政府的借贷成本造成很大影响。”
Continuing annual deficits have made the total debt double in the past few years, and many members of Congress believe continuing that course will eventually raise the debt so high it would cause a severe economic crisis.
年复一年的财政赤字使美国政府的债务总额在过去几年中翻了一番。很多国会议员都相信，长此以往，美国不断膨胀的债务总有一天会引起一场严重的经济危机。 |