The death of a senior al-Qaida figure by a U.S. air strike in Yemen leaves a gap in the senior ranks of what counterterrorism officials say is the most lethal of the group's franchises, Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). But how significant a gap is open to question. Was Anwar al-Awlaki primarily an inspirational figure to would-be jihadists? Or did he play a significant operational role for the group as well?
美国在也门的一次空袭击毙了基地组织的一名高级头目，这使得基地组织阿拉伯半岛分支的高层出现空缺，反恐官员说，这对该分支造成致命的打击。问题在于，这一空缺有多严重。安瓦尔·奥拉基主要是一个励志人物，还是他在基地组织的运作中发挥了重要作用？
Former CIA director Michael Hayden says the death of Anwar al-Awlaki is significant, but not as significant as the death of Osama bin Laden. In an interview with VOA, Hayden says Awlaki's death will not have great operational impact on al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula because his primary role was as an inspirational figure.
前美国中央情报局局长迈克尔·海登说，安瓦尔·奥拉基之死意义重大，但是不像本·拉登之死那么重要。海登在接受美国之音的采访时说，奥拉基之死不会对基地组织阿拉伯半岛分支的运作造成巨大影响，因为他主要是一个励志人物。
"It's a big deal," said Hayden. "And if you regard, as I do, the most serious current threat to be the self-radicalized, one-off, low-threshold person legitimately inside the United States, this undercuts that effort over the long term because he truly was an inspirational figure. But in terms of making al-Qaida shudder as an organization, this isn't in the same league as bin Laden."
海登说：“这是件大事。如果你我都认为目前最严重的威胁是那些自发的、单打独干的、可以在美国合法居住的激进分子，那么奥拉基被打死从长远来看就削弱了这方面的努力，因为他的确是一个励志人物。但是，要说到是否能震慑到基地组织，他与本拉登不是同一个量级的人物。”
With his flawless, idiom-laden English skills, the American-born Islamic cleric could reach disaffected young Muslims in the West and inspire them to mount attacks. It was a skill precious to al-Qaida as it sought to ramp up attacks on Western targets, but found itself increasingly constrained by Western counterterrorism efforts.
美国出生的伊斯兰教士奥拉基能讲非常流利的英语，他能在西方接触到心怀不满的年轻穆斯林，并鼓励他们发动袭击。对于寻求加强袭击西方目标的基地组织来说，这是很宝贵的技能，但是基地组织感到日益受到西方反恐努力的限制。
But Hayden points out that Awlaki was viewed in the U.S. as more significant than he actually was because of his background.
不过海登指出，在美国，奥拉基被视为比实际上更有影响力，原因在于他的背景。
"He was an American," said Hayden. "He knew our jargon and knew our culture, could relate to people here. And because of that - how to put this? It was much easier for us to understand the threat coming from him because of who he was and his background, if you know what I mean. It's almost a natural that he floats to the top in the broad popular coverage of the threat, because he was easier for us to talk about, easier for us to explain, easier for us to focus on."
海登说：“他是个美国人。他知道我们的行话，了解我们的文化，他能与美国人建立联系。正因为如此，怎么说呢，我们很容易理解他带来的威胁，因为他这个人和他的背景。你知道我是什么意思。几乎很自然地他成为美国眼中的头号恐怖威胁，因为他更容易被我们所谈及，更容易解释，更容易被我们关注。”
An analysis by the private intelligence firm, Stratfor, cautions against overstating Awlaki's role in AQAP. It points out that he was not the group's leader - that post is held by Nasir al-Wahayshi - and was not even the group's primary religious leader.
一个专门研究情报信息的公司提醒各界不要过份夸大奥拉基生前在也门阿拉伯半岛基地组织内的作用。斯特拉特福尔情报信息公司分析说，奥拉基其实既不是阿拉伯半岛基地组织的负责人，甚至也不是该组织宗教事务方面最主要的负责人。阿拉伯半岛基地组织的头子实际上是瓦哈伊实(Nasir al-Wahayshi)。
But Michael Leiter, who until earlier this year was chief of America's National Counterterrorism Center, disagrees on Awlaki's significance.
不过，对这一点，也有不同的看法。美国前国家反恐中心的负责人莱特尔认为，奥拉基生前在阿拉伯半岛基地组织的运作上发挥了相当大的作用。
In a separate VOA interview, Leiter says Awlaki played a very large part in planning AQAP's operations. He points to Awlaki's pivotal role in such plots at trying to blow up an aircraft over Detroit on December 25, 2009, and a plan to plant bombs on U.S.-bound cargo planes as evidence that his death will have a profound impact on AQAP operationally as well as ideologically.
莱特尔指出，无论是2009年12月25号策划炸毁一架飞抵底特律的飞机、还是企图在飞往美国货运飞机上安放炸弹，所有这些行动，奥拉基都是一个重要角色。也正因为如此，他的死对于阿拉伯半岛基地组织，无论是从具体的运作还是从理念的整合来说，都是意义重大。
"I think it's significant on both the operational and inspirational front," said Leiter. "First and foremost, Anwar al-Awlaki was in fact the chief of external operations for al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. He had planned and directed attacks against the U.S., most notably the failed Christmas Day attack, and then the plot to attack two cargo planes. And his loss in that sense is very, very significant."
莱特尔说：“在我看来，从运作和调动人心两方面来说，奥拉基的死影响都很大。首先，奥拉基事实上就是负责阿拉伯半岛基地组织外部运作的，他策划并且指挥了对美国的袭击行动，最突出的就是那次没有成功的、策划在2009年圣诞节炸毁飞机的事件，另外就是策划炸毁两架美国货运飞机。他的死，从这个意义上讲，确实很重要。”
Leiter says Awlaki's American background made him operationally creative, thinking up plots aimed at harming America psychologically as well as physically, and seeking to obtain weapons of mass destruction.
莱特尔表示，奥拉基出生在美国的背景在他生前有助于他想尽办法，来“治”美国人，包括从心理上和物质上两方面下手，他还想获得大规模杀伤性武器。
"He was quite imaginative," Leiter added. "And he also understood American psychology in a way that led him to try attacks that I think he understood would be particularly terrorizing. So he was both imaginative and also insightful in many ways."
莱特尔说：“这家伙还蛮有创意的，而且他深知美国人的心理状态，所以他想出的那些主意，也都是如何能够造成最大的恐怖效果。所以说，他在很多方面很有创意和洞察力。”
Analysts expect AQAP to try to regroup to make up for Awlaki's loss. Former counterterrorism chief Leiter says Awlaki, like bin Laden, was obsessed with attacking the U.S. and the West, and believes his death may cause AQAP to shift its focus back somewhat to local targets in Yemen.
分析人士普遍认为，奥拉基被打死之后，阿拉伯半岛基地组织很快将重组。莱特尔说，奥拉基生前像本·拉登一样，把很多注意力都放在如何对美国和西方国家发动大规模攻击上。莱特尔说，奥拉基被打死之后，阿拉伯半岛基地组织有可能把重点和视线在某种程度上转移到也门本土的目标。
He adds that there are others in the group who will continue to try to inspire - which happens to be the title of Awlaki's English-language jihadist magazine - more disaffected young Muslims to attack the U.S. But he says they will find that difficult.
莱特尔还补充说，继奥拉基之后，该组织内部还会有人想要步他的后尘，继续煽动、鼓舞那些对现实不满的年青的穆斯林去从事恐怖行为，但是，这个角色恐怕也不是谁都能扮演的。奥拉基生前创办的杂志的名称就是“鼓舞”。
"They still have some very dangerous people over there," said Leiter. "They have expertise that helps create some of the weapons that were used in Awlaki's attacks. There are other English-speaking ideologues there who are attempting to radicalize Westerners and plotting against the United States. But Awlaki was iconic in a way that these others, I think, truly are not to a broader audience."
莱特尔说：“还有一些危险份子在那儿，他们也懂得如何制造恐怖袭击的武器，也有其他会讲英文的想要煽动反美和反西方情绪的人，但是，其他人或许做不到像奥拉基那样，煽动很大一批人。”
Awlaki's final issue of "Inspire," published in July, contains a eulogy for Osama bin Laden, a poem for the prisoners held in U.S. custody in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and pictorial instruction on how to handle an AK-47 automatic assault rifle.
奥拉基创办的最后一期“鼓舞”杂志在今年七月出版，其中的内容包括一篇纪念本·拉登的悼文，一首写给被关押在古巴关塔纳摩湾美军基地的囚犯的诗，以及如何使用AK-47自动枪的图解。 |