The Mathematical Marriage Predictor
伦敦:一位数学家说,他可以94%的准确率来预测某对新婚夫妇是否会享有长久的婚姻。西雅图华盛顿大学数学教授默里说他发明的两个公式基于一项为期10年对700对美国夫妇进行的研究。心理学家要对新婚夫妇之间的15分钟谈话加以观察,默里说道,夫妇间对诸如性、抚养子女和钱等问题相互交流的能力会通过一种尺度来衡量,对那些好的表示,如微笑、亲昵的姿态,就可以加分；对那些不好的表示,如不耐烦地转眼睛、嘲笑、冷漠,则减分。"我们使用广为接受的一种心理学测量体系来评分,比如轻蔑的态度减3分,幽默加2分。"默里对伦敦的《每日电讯报》说道。这些分值接着被转换为代数语言,从而使该项研究的创始者们进行离婚预测。这些数据被放到两个方程式中进行计算———一个是丈夫的,一个是妻子的。对这些夫妇每两年调查一次,而预测哪对夫妇的婚姻会失败的模型几乎是完全准确。
Want to know if your marriage is going to last? Learn about the mathematical marriage predictor on this Moment of Science.
You might not think that mathematicians（数学家） have anything particularly relevant to say about your love life. But you’d be wrong–if we’re talking about James Murray, a mathematician at the University of Washington in Seattle who (1)teamed up（合作） with Psychologist John Gottman to explore the rocky road（坎坷崎岖的路） of romance.
Here’s what the two did. They (2)videotaped（将…录到录像带上） hundreds of volunteer couples discussing such things as sex and money. You know–the sorts of things on which everybody always agrees, right?
Then they (3)broke down(分解) behavioral responses to these high-pressure（高压的） discussions into recognizable（可辨认的，可认识的） groups, such as whether partner A can be persuaded by partner B, or whether partner A (4)takes offense（生气） when partner B makes a cutting（尖刻的） remark.
A set of equations（方程式，等式） was (5)drawn up（草拟，起草） that represented the interactions（相互作用） of these different factors in mathematical form, leading to…Ding!…a prediction as to whether this marriage would last. Sound like a stretch? Think you can’t possibly tell that much about a couple from a single interview and some calculations?
Four years later Murray and Gottman did a follow-up（随访，跟进） to see whether the equation had made the right prediction. It sure had–their Mathematical Marriage Predictor was right an astonishing（令人惊讶的） ninety-four percent of the time.
Some conspicuous（显著的，显而易见的） findings included the fact that, in marriages that lasted, laughing occurred five times more frequently than in couples (6)destined for（驶往；去往） break-up. The team also found that the one behavior that most consistently（ 一贯地） predicted divorce was the appearance of a contemptuous（轻蔑的） or mocking（嘲弄的） facial expression on one partner’s face when the other one spoke.
According to the Mathematical Marriage Predictor, it’s “roll your eyes and say goodbyes.”
Notes:
(1)team up v.合作；结成一队；协作
The two universities have teamed up for a research project.
两所大学已在某一科研项目上进行协作。
(2)videotape ['vidi?uteip] n.录像带 vt.将…录到录像带上
1.Videotape a performance of the advertisement to view for yourselves.
从表演的广告录像带看自己的表现。
2.Stiles is accused of molesting a three-year-old girl and recording it on videotape.
并被指控调戏一位仅三岁的小女孩，调戏过程被记录在录像带上。
(3)break down 分解；发生故障；失败；毁掉；制服
1.The bridge broke down in last earthquake.
那座桥在上次地震中坍塌了。
2.Break down barriers between Departments.
打破部门间的障碍。
(4)take offense生气
Please don't take offense. Iwanted to tell you what I think.
请你别生气，我只是想把我的想法告诉你了。
(5)draw up草拟，起草；停住；使靠近
1.The boat was drawn up on the shore.
这条小船被拉上了海滩。
2.Second, draw up an outline.
第二步起草一个提纲。
(6)destined for驶往；去往
1.The ships were destined for Cuba.
那些船是开往古巴的。
2.You are destined for a life of travel and fun.
你希望一个能到处旅行和充满乐趣的一生。 |