欧洲－巴尔干依旧是欧洲和平的威胁（在线收听）

The Balkans Still a Threat to European Peace

Spring came with unrest in Kosovo in 2004. Acts of violence against Serbs and their property were a reminder of the explosive situation there, with the population frustrated over the status-quo and strong tensions between the Albanian majority and Serb minority.

Stephen Larrabee, director of European Security Issues at the RAND Corporation, says Kosovo was only the most severe of the problem in the Balkans last year.

Stephen Larrabee: I think first and the most important was probably the unrest in Kosovo because that underscored the degree to which Kosovo continues to remain unstable.

Franz-Luthar Altman, director of the Balkans section at the German Institute of International and Security Affairs in Berlin, agrees. 

Franz-Luthar Altman: These clashes, these unfortunate happenings in Kosovo in march certainly marked a reversal of thinking in the heads of many westerners, thinking that the Kosovo issue is still unresolved.

Analysts agree that one of the most important issues - if not the most important - for the Balkans in 2005 will be consideration of the final status of Kosovo. The United Nations has governed Kosovo since 1999 after an 11-week NATO bombing campaign to halt Serb repression of the Albanian population. Kosovo's 90-percent ethnic Albanian majority demands independence, while Belgrade insists that it remain part of Serbia.

Martin Sletzinger, director of East European Studies at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, stresses the connection between security needs and European integration of the Balkans.

Martin Sletzinger: I think that the Europeans, at least some in Europe, feel that really the process of European integration and stability in the South-East Europe and the Balkans amounts to one and the same thing: the European integration process would underscore stability.

Stability is key says Mr. Sletzinger, now that a serious effort has started both within the European Union and in the Balkans to bring those states closer to Europe.

Martin Sletzinger: I think it is generally recognized among all these countries that that’s the future and that’s the content and the framework in which both their domestic development and international relations with each other and with America, and with the rest of Europe is posited, or it’s based, it’s European integration.

Mr. Altman of the German Institute of International and Security Affairs says that after EU enlargement last year, the Balkans destiny is now Brussels, headquarters of the European Union.

Mr. Altman: I think the main development was the enlargement of May 1st, which only marginally touched also the Balkans, but which certainly will have some consequences because Slovenia is now a member of the EU, and it’s for sure that the next two countries or even three countries have been take pressures also joint the EU.

But Stephen Larrabee of RAND corporation says although the Balkan countries are headed toward the European Union, it is not going to happen any time soon. 

Stephen Larrabee: I don’t really see much prospect of any country becoming a member besides Croatia before another decade. The EU has a lot on its plate right now, including the ratification of the constitution, integration of 10 new members and accession negotiations with Turkey. So all these developments mean the EU faces has a lot of other issues, which is likely to make it much more difficult for them to push forward with the integration of western Balkans.

While Croatia has been invited to start negotiations for the membership in the European Union, Macedonia has signed a Stabilization and Association agreement that prepares countries for integration. For Albania, progress in negotiations for the same agreement depends very much on general elections to be held this year. Meanwhile, Montenegro is preparing for a referendum in 2006 for independence from the current loose federation, the union of Serbia and Montenegro. That is yet one more contentious issue facing the Balkans in 2005.

注释：

unrest [5Qn5rest] n. 不安的状态，动荡的局面

Serb [sE:b] n. 塞尔维亚人

Albanian [Al5beinjEn] adj. 阿尔巴尼亚的

underscore [7QndE5skC:] vt. 强调

clash [klAF] n. 冲突

repression [ri5preFEn] n. 镇压

framework [5freimwE:k] n. 构架，框架，结构

ratification [7rAtifi5keiFEn] n. 批准，通过

Macedonia [7mAsi5dEunjE] n. 马其顿王国