美国有线新闻 CNN 2013-01-04(在线收听) |
What does, what do the markets want? You will not gonna be happy with this fiscal cliff fudge tonight. No, not at all. The markets want clarity right? The markets want to know what the answers gonna be. I think the markets gonna be, honestly, quite dispointed as they start, the strategists and economist start to dissect what the president just said, how it's going to be really a band-aid. They're talking about doing this in stages. It's not what the market wants to hear, because all that leaves is more confusion.
Right, so, would, I mean, it's blunt speak time, it's time for you and I to have a bit of blunt talk. Would you have prefer to go over the cliff for a longterm beneficial grand bargain?
Ok, I actually thought it would be better to go over the cliff. Because if you went over the cliff, you would have clarity, right? Everyone knows exactly what would happen, taxes would have gone here, spending would have gone there. And then they could have argued it from the opposite side. They would have, on one level, brought some taxes down. They would have increased spending. But they would have been forced into compliance. Doing this band-aid routine and doing it over a number of, a period of months or staged, as he said, it's not gonna work out well in my opinion because it's going to leave it way too confusing for investors, it's going to leave it confusing for companies. They don't know how to make plans, they don't know what they should hire, they shouldn't hire...go ahead.
So where will we see the market effect? Obviously, with the Fed still buying $85 billion a month as part of Q Eternity, and with, you know, with bonds still being only game in town, even a miner switch to equities, where do you expect to see this balloon to squeeze out?
Ok, so what I expect to see, and you're probably going to see, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw pressure towards the end of today, that people at the very last moment are going to take some money off the table. But I suspect once Asia and Europe opens on Wednesday, Tuesday night for us, into Wednesday, and the global market starts to react, I will then think you will see more pressure on the U.S. market. I don't by any stretch suggest you're going to get a TARP moment where the market sells off 700 points. I don't think you're going to get that at all, because there's a lot of money on the sidelines waiting. I think you see us test 1385 again, which is a 200-day moving average, and then as investors kind of re-price the risk.
Kenny, as always, we've talked many times, you and I, over the year. It's been a treat and a pleasure to have you on Quest Means Business. We need you to make sense of this, and I wish you and your family a happy New Year, Kenny. How very good to see you.
And to you too. Thank you every much, Richard.
Thank you, Kenny Polcari joining me from the New York Stock Exchange. |
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