中国经济

　　Keqiang ker-ching

　　李克强好样的！

　　How China’s next prime minister keeps tabs on its economy

　　看下一任中国总理如何看管自国经济

　　Dec 9th 2010 | HONG KONG | from PRINT EDITION

　　IF CHINA’S deputy prime minister, Li Keqiang, succeeds his boss, Wen Jiabao, in 2013, as is likely, he will become his country’s top economic policymaker. But he may not pay much heed to the figures provincial officials feed him. In 2007 he told America’s ambassador that GDP figures in Liaoning, where he was then party chief, were “man-made” and unreliable, according to a State Department memo released by WikiLeaks.

　　如果国务院副总理李克强，在2013年的国家领导人选举中坐上温家宝的位子，那么，他将成为该国经济的最高决策人。这似乎也极有可能成真。但他是不会把各省官员上报给他的数据太当回事的。根据维基解密近日公布的中国国务院数据，2007年，时任辽宁省委书记的李克强曾告诉美国大使，称该省的GDP的统计数字全是“人造的”，根本就不可信。

　　Provincial officials have long been suspected of overstating growth. Adding their figures together suggests that China’s economy was $364 billion bigger in 2009 than the total in the national accounts. Mr Li preferred to track Liaoning’s economy by looking at other indicators: the cargo volume on the province’s railways, electricity consumption and loans disbursed by banks.

　　长久以来，中国各省官员就一直被怀疑有夸大该国经济增速。将它们的这些数据一相加，2009年的中国经济总量居然比国民账户多出了3640亿美元。李克强认为，评估辽宁省的经济时，应看看其他数据：该省的铁路货运量、用电量以及银行发放的贷款额。

　　In Mr Li’s honour, The Economist has created a “Keqiang index” for China’s economy, combining his three preferred indicators (see chart). It reveals an economy that is as dynamic as the official figures suggest, but a great deal more volatile. Electricity consumption and cargo traffic both shrank in the final months of 2008 and in early 2009, implying that China’s economy suffered more grievously than the official figures allow. A loan surge in 2009 presaged the rapid recovery that followed.

　　为表敬意，本刊将李克强所称的三个数字结合起来，创立了评估中国经济的“克强指数”（见上图）。该指数与官方发布数据显示的中国经济动态变化趋势类似，但在波动范围上，要大得多。用电量和铁路货运量在08年末到09年初曾大幅下跌，可见，中国经济并不如官方数字显示描绘得那么风平浪静。而2009年的贷款额激增则预示着中国经济在接下来的日子里迅速回暖。

　　It should come as a relief to all those who doubt China’s economic statistics (ie, just about everybody) that the people in charge of its economy do not entirely trust them either.

　　对于那些对中国经济数据存疑的人（或者应该说是几乎每个人）来说，这算得上是某种宽慰了——他们的国民经济掌权者终于不再满心信赖那些数据了。