电力供应

　　Profitable interruptions

　　盈利性的中断

　　Collecting and trading spare electricity is a thriving industry

　　备用电力的收集与交易是一蓬勃发展的新兴行业

　　SPIKES in demand for power and unexpected dips in supply have plagued electricity generators and their customers for decades. The solutions have been crude. More than a decade ago North American power companies started paying big consumers to switch off machines and devices to ease the load on creaking grids. In 2003 French producers did the same to cope with a heatwave.

　　激增的电力需求以及意想不到供给匮乏已经困扰了电力供应商及其客户数十年之久。并且他们的解决方案原始而粗鲁。十多年前北美电力公司开始赔付大的客户用以关闭机器以及设备从而能够缓解勉强运转的电网压力的金额。在2003年的时候法国的生产商为了应付反常的高温也做了同样的事情。

　　电力供应.jpg

　　In some ways the problem has worsened. The rise in the use of renewable power, especially in Europe, has led to surges of supply on sunny and windy days and unpredictable lulls in conditions of cloud and calm. But that is a big opportunity for “demand-response” companies, which use computing power and clever algorithms to divert electricity from some consumers, such as factories or greenhouses, to users who need it more.

　　从某种程度而言，问题已经开始恶化。尤其是在欧洲，增加可再生能源的使用已经导致了在晴朗以及有风的天气里的浪潮以及在在多云和无风的条件下不可想象的静止，不过这对于那些运用运算能力以及巧妙的算法来从一些客户那里—诸如工厂和温室，转移电流给那些共需要的用户的“需求响应”公司而言是一个巨大的机遇。

　　Pioneered by technology firms rather than power producers, demand response is strongest in North America, but it is spreading fast. In a control room in London's fashionable Soho district, Ziko Abram of Kiwi Power shows off a “virtual” power plant with a capacity of more than 100 megawatts. Kiwi pays users for agreeing to switch off cooling and heating, pumps and other equipment when asked. A switch installed on a user's premises might be programmed to cut off power to freezers, for example, when they are cold enough. In other cases, Kiwi negotiates the cutoff with the consumer. It sells the spare capacity thus created to the National Grid.

　　技术型企业似乎比电力生产商更加倡导这样的模式，虽然“需求响应”在美国做的是最强的，但它传播的非常的迅速。在现今时髦的伦敦Soho区的一个控制室内，Kiwi Power的Ziko Abram展示了一个容量超过100万瓦特“虚拟的”电厂。Kiwi会因为在必要的时候客户同意切断冷气、暖气、泵以及其他的设备赔付客户。将一个开关安装在住户之处使得切断冰柜的功率成为可能的程序，例如当冷气已经足够的时候。在其他的情况下，Kiwi会就断电一事与客户协商。它出售了闲置的生产设备从而来来建立国家电网。

　　Along with competitors such as Flexitricity, Kiwi also buys the right to use standby diesel generators in hospitals, government buildings and elsewhere. Rather than waste fuel by testing these machines every week, these institutions let Kiwi's technology switch them on when the grid requires. In power-poor South Africa an American firm, Comverge, has created a market in which companies can sell the electricity they choose not to consume.

　　与诸如Flexitricity的竞争对手一样，Kiwi同样的购买了医院、政府建设以及其他一些地方的备用柴油发电机的使用权。与其让每周的机器固定测试浪费燃料，倒不如让这些体系使Kiwi的技术能够掌控它们当电力被需要的时候。在电力缺乏的南非地区，一家美国公司，Comverge，已经选择输送电力给那些他们认为不会消耗能源的公司作为开拓市场。

　　Such services cope with spikes in consumption, which are mostly foreseeable. Fluctuations in wind and cloud can cause gluts or shortages within minutes. The conventional way to offset this is through gas, hydro or modern coal-fuelled power stations, which can be switched on or off quickly. But getting consumers to change their habits a little is potentially much cheaper.

　　这样的服务用以应付那些大多都可预测的能源消耗高峰期。有风的日子或者阴天的波动会在分分钟之内引起供过于求或者是能源短缺。用来抵消波动的传统方法是通过煤气、水利或者现代的燃煤发电站，它们均可以快速的被启动或切断。不过稍稍的改变一下消费者的生活习惯可能会比这便宜许多。

　　The prospects in Europe have brought a flurry of acquisitions. The world's biggest demand-response firm, Enernoc, a publicly traded American company, has bought a dozen foreign providers since 2005. Nearly 20% of its 383m revenues come from abroad. In February it bought Entelios, the biggest German company, with 600MW of capacity, and Activation Energy, the leading Irish firm.

　　这在英国的前景是带来了一连串的收购。世界上最大的需求响应公司，美国上市公司Enerno，自2005年起已经并购了十二个外国供应商，其三十八亿三千万的收入有将近有20%来自于国外。在二月份的时候它有并购了Entelios这个德国最大的企业，拥有六十亿瓦特的容量，以及活化能，爱尔兰公司的领导者。

　　The industry has plenty of room to grow. In America it accounts for more than 20 gigawatts, or 2% of the total installed capacity, according to Colin McKerracher, an analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. It is concentrated in the north-east of the country. In the European Union, a much larger energy market, capacity is only 5.4GW, but BNEF forecasts it will grow to 15.3GW by 2020. Pulse Energy, a Canadian firm, expects to double its customer base to 2m by Christmas.

　　按照Colin McKerracher，这位彭博新能源财经分析师的看法，这位这个行业有很的的发展空间，在美国它约占两千亿瓦特或者说总装机容量百分之二的比例。集中于国家的东北地区。在欧盟，这个更大的能源市场，其容量只有54亿瓦特。但是BNEF预测其会在2020年的时候增长至153亿瓦特。Pulse Energy，一家加拿大企业，希望到圣诞节的时候他们的客户群能够扩大一倍，达到二百万之多。

　　Demand response still faces scepticism. People who run and regulate the network like power stations they can see, not virtual ones. “Is that really the sort of country we want to be—where you just cut the power off when supply gets tight?” asks an executive at one of Britain's “big six” energy providers. David Brewster of Enernoc says changing “100 years of policy and mindset” is a “slow grind”.

　　“需求响应”也同样面临着质疑。那些经营或者管理网络的的人希望发电站是可以看得见摸得着的而不是虚拟的。“这确实是我们想要成为的那一类型吗—仅仅是在供应紧张之时切断电源吗？”一个英国品牌“big six”的电量供应商的高级行政人员质疑道。Enernoc的David Brewster认为改变“100年的政策和方向”是一个“缓慢的折磨”。

　　Some parts of America already have well developed markets in capacity, where demand-response providers can bid alongside conventional power producers for supply contracts, typically three years in advance. Their cost advantage makes them increasingly competitive，

　　美国一些已经拥有良好市场容量的发达地区，“需求响应”的供应商可以与常规电力生产商为供应合同—通常来讲是提前三年，共同报价。他们的成本优势使得其越来越有竞争力。

　　Such markets are starting in Europe, too, but rules are still being written. Providers worry that regulators will tilt them in favour of conventional producers on such issues as response time and how much aggregation will be allowed.

　　这样的市场同样的也开始在欧洲发展，但是规则仍在编写之中。供应商担心监管者会在一些问题上，例如反应时间以及聚合多少的问题上，来撬动他们来赞成传统生产厂商。

　　To be credible, demand response must be reliable. Grid managers want to know the power will be there when needed. That may favour the bigger demand-response companies—and the utilities, which could dominate the industry if they chose to enter it. Upstarts claim they have smarter algorithms. They say they are creating prime electricity out of subprime portfolios. That analogy will reassure neither customers nor rulemakers.

　　为了变得更加可靠，需求反应必须是切实可信赖的。电网管理者想要知道电力是能够用在刀刃上的。这也许会赞成较大的“需求响应公司”—以及那些如果他们选择进入的话能够成为行业主导的公用事业。新贵们声称他们拥有更加智能的运算法则。他们说他们正在创造主要电力的次级抵押贷款投资组合。这样的类比会使得消费者以及规则制定者都能够消除顾虑。