美国和中东

　　Back to Iraq

　　重返伊拉克

　　By combining military force with political brinkmanship, America is making some headway

　　通过对地缘政治和军事力量的结合，美国正取得一些进展

　　AMERICA'S last two presidents have got things wrong in Iraq in opposite ways. George W. Bush went into the country in 2003 guns blazing, with 148,000 soldiers and too little thought of how to stabilise it after Saddam Hussein had been defeated. The consequences were disastrous.

　　美国最近两任总统在处理伊拉克问题上都错误的走向了两个极端。2003年乔治·W·布什带着148000名士兵对这个国家进行军事打击，却没有考虑在萨达姆被击败后如何来稳定它。其后果是灾难性的。

　　Barack Obama took a different approach. Americans, he reckoned, were not capable of bringing peace to this complex, violent and distant place. He allowed the troops' mandate in the country to run out with insufficient attention to what might follow, and then applied the same logic in Syria where he did little to support moderate opponents of Bashar Assad. His policy aided the rise of the Islamic State (IS), a Sunni terrorist group, that has taken territory in Syria and Iraq.

　　奥巴马采取了不同的方式。他觉得美国人没法给这个复杂、暴力和遥远的地方带来和平。他允许结束部队在该国的任务，却没考虑到这一做会带来些什么，然后在对待叙利亚问题上用了相同的逻辑，在那里他没怎么支持巴沙尔·阿萨德温和的反对者。他的这一政策促使了伊斯兰国(IS)的的兴起，而这一逊尼派恐怖组织已在叙利亚和伊拉克占领了领土。

　　Now the prospect of a caliphate run by extremists bent on attacking the West has persuaded a reluctant Mr Obama that he cannot walk away from the Mesopotamian mess, and he is trying a new tack—combining modest military force with hard-nosed political brinkmanship. Given conditions in the region, the chances of success are limited. But they are better than those offered by any other approach.

　　现在，由于极端分子掌控的哈里发可能会执意要攻击西方世界，这使得即使不情愿也没发从美索不达米亚的混乱中脱身，而他正在尝试一种新的手段—把适度的武力和强硬的地缘政治政策相结合。鉴于该地区的情况，很难取得成功。但它们是比其他任何的方式都好一些。

　　A risky bet

　　冒险一搏

　　美国和中东.jpg

　　When on August 8th jets from an aircraft-carrier in the Gulf bombed IS and halted its advance, critics argued that Mr Obama was doing too little, too late. America had sat by for two months and watched IS conquer parts of northern Iraq. A humanitarian disaster followed: thousands of Yazidis, members of a Kurdish-speaking sect, fled into the mountains to escape the jihadists. IS tried to take Erbil, the capital of the Iraqi Kurds, threatening their peaceful, prosperous enclave.

　　当8月8日海湾的航空母舰上的飞机轰炸对IS进行轰炸时，批评者认为，奥巴马做得太少且太迟了。两个月来，美国坐视IS占领了伊拉克北部部分地区。人道主义灾难接踵而至：成千上万名为雅兹迪人的库尔德语教派的成员纷纷逃入深山以躲避圣战者。IS试图夺取伊拉克库尔德人的首府埃尔比勒，并威胁它们和平繁荣的土地。

　　Certainly, more will need to be done to root out the extremists. But Mr Obama deserves credit for learning from past mistakes. He is the fourth American president in succession to bomb Iraq. In order to break that sequence, it is not enough just to unleash another round of shock and awe. The jihadists would only regroup. A politically stable Iraq is needed, run by a government that is broad-based and popular.

　　当然，要想铲除极端分子还有很多事情要做。但事值得表扬的是奥巴马从过去的错误中学到了东西。他是连续第四位对伊拉克进行军事打击的总统。为了打破这种惯例，仅仅释放新一轮的震慑是不足够的。圣战主义者只会重新联合。这时迫切需要一个由具有广泛基础和受欢迎的政府管理下的稳定的伊拉克。

　　The one headed for the past eight years by Nuri al-Maliki, a member of the Shia majority, was nothing of the kind. It alienated Kurds and excluded Sunnis, who make up a quarter of the population. Some Sunnis came to support the extremists of IS, seeing them—often reluctantly—as the only defence against a brutal security apparatus. An all-out American attack on IS risks being seen as a sectarian move.

　　那个在过去八年里以多数什叶派的成员努里·马利基为首的政府就完全不属于这一类。它疏远库尔德人并把逊尼人排除在外，而他们占了总人口的四分之一。一些逊尼派开始支持IS极端分子，通常是不情愿地把他们看作是对抗残暴的政府安全机构的唯一屏障。美国对IS的全力攻击可能会被视为宗派行为。

　　Mr Obama's gamble has been to withhold all but minimal military support in order to force political change in Baghdad. That strategy has come at a cost. IS has consolidated its hold on Iraq's second-biggest city, Mosul, and captured a dam that supplies much of the country with water. It is well-armed and self-financing. But political change appears now to be under way in Baghdad. Mr Maliki may with luck be replaced as prime minister by Haider al-Abadi, a more inclusive figure. The Americans alone did not usher Mr Maliki out. He made enemies among Iraqis, including in his own party. Iran also fell out with him. Even so, pressure from Mr Obama helped see him on his way.

　　奥巴马的冒险在于仅以极少的军事支持来迫使在巴格达的政治变革。这一策略的执行已经付出了代价。IS已经巩固其对伊拉克第二大城市摩苏尔的掌控，并夺取了给该国大部分地区供水的大坝。它装备精良，并自给资金。但政治变革现在看来正在巴格达进行。马利基可能会幸运的被更具包容性的人物海德尔·阿巴迪取代作为总理。美国人单独并没有送出马利基。他在包括他自己的政党在内的伊拉克人中到处树敌。伊朗也与他闹翻了。即便如此，来自奥巴马的压力也有助于了他的离去。

　　Mr Maliki has been an awful prime minister. If Mr Abadi, also a Shia, appoints a cabinet that includes senior Sunnis in prominent positions, as seems likely, he will reduce popular support for the extremists, which should help persuade Sunni rebels to switch sides. That would pave the way for concerted military action by the Iraqi government to regain territory lost to the extremists. With America acting as its air force, it should be possible to push back IS. The extremists' numbers are limited and their equipment still no match for the West.

　　马利基一直是一个糟糕的总理。如果同为什叶派的阿巴迪先生任命包括显要地位的高级逊尼派人在内的一个内阁，他将减少民众对极端分子的支持，而这将有助于说服逊尼派反叛者转换立场。这将为由伊拉克政府的军事行动铺平道路，这一行动是为了从极端分子那夺回领地。借助美军的空中力量，它应该有可能打退IS。极端分子的人数有限，而他们的装备仍然根本不是西方的对手。

　　There are dangers here: if American bombing caused many civilian casualties, the extremists would have more chance of portraying themselves as protectors of Sunnis against a hostile Shia-led government and its infidel allies. American soldiers will still be in harm's way. Even in the age of satellite-guided bombs, precise strikes depend on the presence of special forces to identify targets. But a plausible path to forcing the jihadists out of Iraq would open up.

　　危险隐患在于：如果美国轰炸造成许多平民伤亡，极端分子将会有更多的机会将自己塑造成是对抗敌对的什叶派主导的政府及其异教徒盟友的逊尼派的保护者。美国士兵仍然面临伤亡。即使是在卫星制导炸弹的时代，精确打击仍依靠特种部队的存在以确定目标。但是将开启一条把圣战者驱逐出伊拉克道路。

　　The trickier question for Mr Obama is what to do if Iraq lives down to expectations, and fails to get a better prime minister or a more inclusive government. The jihadists' ambitions to establish an Islamic caliphate cannot be tolerated. But an all-out assault may bolster Sunni support for IS and risk the disintegration of Iraq. The Kurds live in a more-or-less defined territory: it is possible to imagine the formation of an independent Kurdish state. Sunnis and Shias do not. A break-up of the country could lead to bloodshed on an unprecedented scale. The capital is shared by the sects, as are surrounding areas. America may then be reduced to conducting occasional punitive missions to keep IS contained.

　　对于奥巴马来说更棘手的问题是如果伊拉克不能如期得到一个更好的总理或更具包容性的政府那该怎么做。伊斯兰圣战者建立一个伊斯兰哈里发政权的雄心是不能被容忍的。而全力以赴的攻击可能会加强逊尼派对IS的支持并有招致伊拉克瓦解的风险。库尔德人生活在一片多少有些防御的领土：可以想像一个独立的库尔德国家的形成。国家的破裂可能导致前所未有的规模的流血冲突。首都如同周边区域一样是由各教派占有的。那样美国为遏制IS而进行的偶尔的惩罚性任务将会受到削减。

　　And once again Syria

　　再来看看叙利亚

　　In all events, Western leaders must prepare the public for a lengthy military engagement in this part of the world. Even if confronted by America's full military might, the extremists could melt back into the population of Mosul, a city of 2m people where they have had a strong underground presence for years. They could also slip back across the nearby border with Syria, where they have a safe haven in swathes of land they have seized during the civil war. From there they would probably continue to foster instability in Iraq.

　　不管发生什么事件，西方领导者必须让公众接受在这一地区将会有长期的军事介入。即使面临美国的全部军事力量，极端分子也可以融回摩苏尔的人群中，他们多年来在摩苏尔这个有200万人口的城市中有着强大的地下存在。他们还可以穿越附近挨着叙利亚的边境溜回，在那里有他们在内战期间夺取的大片的安全避风港。而这将可能会继续加剧伊拉克的不稳定性。

　　That raises an uncomfortable truth for Mr Obama. His judgment is that the jihadists can be properly dealt with only by creating long-term stability in Iraq. A similar situation exists in Syria. Yet the president has long resisted intervening there, and been backed in this by a war-weary American public and Congress as well as international lawyers. Still, in the long run America is unlikely to be able to destroy or even contain militant jihadism without involving itself in Syria.

　　对于奥巴马这引发了一个令人不安的事实。他认为圣战分子的问题只能通过在伊拉克创立长期的稳定才能得以妥善处理。在叙利亚的情况也是如此。然而，总统一直拒绝介入，并且不论是美国民众或是国会以及国际律师都支持这一做法。不过，从长远来看，除非美国自身介入叙利亚，否则它不太可能能够摧毁或是遏制住激进的圣战主义。

　　Mr Obama's new approach in Iraq seems to be working. But more decisive action against the jihadists will be needed. The Americans are back on the ground, and they will be there for a while.

　　奥巴马处理伊拉克问题的新方法似乎是有用的。但是需要采取更为果断的行动来对抗圣战者。美国大兵又回来了，并且短时间内是不会走了。