俄罗斯和乌克兰

　　A brief intermission

　　课间休息

　　The ceasefire holds uneasily, but tension in eastern Ukraine will still trouble the governments in both Kiev and Moscow

　　停火维持不易，东乌紧张局势仍困扰乌俄双方政府

　　THE war in eastern Ukraine has quietened, for now. Its disparate factions have as much reason to keep fighting as to put away their guns. But a ceasefire signed on September 5th in Minsk is so far mostly holding. Ukraine's president, Petro Poroshenko, does not want to fight an unwinnable war against Russia, which is the situation he would have been in had he pressed on with Kiev's “anti-terrorist operation” in the east. His Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, is happy to see Donetsk and Luhansk turn into breakaway territories that can serve as instruments against Kiev.

　　发生在东乌克兰地区的战争暂时停止，但内部纷争依旧。它内部完全不同的派别有许多原因继续战争，停火也一样。但是9月5日在明斯克签署的停火协议迄今为止仍在生效。在东部强行推行基辅的“反分裂运动”,让乌克兰总理佩特罗·波罗申科并不打算在这样的情况下与俄罗斯展开一场毫无胜算的战争。它的俄罗斯伙伴，弗拉迪米尔·普京则非常高兴看到顿尼茨克与卢甘斯克转向领土分离，并且表示可以提供例如武器一类的支持来反抗基辅方面。

　　俄罗斯和乌克兰.jpg

　　From the outset the Kremlin has been advocating a permanent ceasefire, not from humanitarian impulses but because it likes the idea of frozen conflict-zones in the east of Ukraine. The political mood in Kiev spurred Mr Poroshenko to press on as long as Ukrainian forces had momentum. But the incursion by Russian troops with heavy weapons in late August showed that Mr Putin would not allow Kiev a military victory. Without direct NATO aid, Mr Poroshenko felt forced to make a deal.

　　从克里姆林宫提倡永久停火开始，并非出于推行人道主义角度，因为这是一个冻结乌克兰东部战争区的计划。基辅的政治环境刺激波罗申科，只要乌克兰人民武装力量露出苗头，他就要去镇压。但是俄罗斯重型武装军队在八月末的入侵表示了普京不会允许基辅方面的军事胜利。没有北约组织直接的指示，波罗申科处理起来力不从心。

　　In the short term this will seem like a victory for Moscow. It has a mechanism to influence Ukrainian politics, much as it has in Moldova and Georgia. For as long as the status of Donetsk and Luhansk are undefined Ukraine cannot possibly join NATO. Mr Putin will have noted that his insertion of regular Russian soldiers met criticism but little action from abroad. Barack Obama declined to call it an invasion, but rather “a continuation of what's been taking place for months now”. The European Union will apply new sanctions next week, but describes them as “reversible”, perhaps to show that it is reluctant to isolate Russia. This week Russia's Gazprom cut gas supplies to Poland in an effort to stop resupply back to Ukraine.

　　在短期内来看这似乎是莫斯科当局的胜利，它用一种特别的技巧去影响乌克兰政局，很大程度上如同它对摩尔多瓦与格鲁尼亚所做的一样。长期以来顿尼茨克与卢甘斯克的情势都不明确，乌克兰不可能加入北约。普京将会注意他插手俄罗斯正规军，遭到了一小部分国家的批评。奥巴马拒绝称其为一场“入侵”，而是“最近几个月正在发生的一切都是一种扩张”。欧盟下周将会启动新的制裁，但把俄罗斯描述成“叛徒”，也许是为了表示他们隔离俄罗斯是无奈之举。这周俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司切断了对波兰的天然气供应，以防止他们二次供应给乌克兰。

　　The war has felt distant to most Russians. State television has manipulated its narrative of the conflict to soothe viewers' feelings of inadequacy and imperial nostalgia, while talking up Western plots and machinations. A poll by the Levada Centre found that 77% of those surveyed said America was the main initiator of Kiev's operations in the east. The secret burials of Russian paratroopers killed in Ukraine, only to be disavowed by the Russian state, have proved uncomfortable. But compared with the short-lived season of protest three years ago, Russian society seems docile and unthreatening. Another Levada poll found only 8% willing to join protests if they started, against 21% in 2011.

　　这场战争对于绝大多数俄罗斯人来说是十分遥远的。当在发生西方阴谋论的时候，州立电视台通过控制电视台对于争执的描述，去安慰观众们的不完全帝国主义怀旧情结。勒瓦达中心的一项民意调查发现，77%的被调查民众说美国是基辅在东部活动的主要发起者。被俄罗斯政府所否认的，隐瞒了伞兵在乌克兰遭遇不测的消息，已经引起了民众的不满。但是和三年前短命的抗议相比，俄罗斯社会看起来十分温顺不成威胁。另一项勒瓦达民意测试发现如果俄罗斯和乌克兰开战，只有8%的民众会加入抗议活动，与2011年的21%相反。

　　Yet Mr Putin's adventurism and revanchism will create new dangers for his regime. A falling rouble and a Kremlin-imposed ban on food imports from America and Europe means that inflation could hit 8% next year. That may spur a level of social discontent which the war itself has not. Existing sanctions, and the prospect of more to come, are dragging down Russia's already faltering economy. Morgan Stanley forecasts a recession in 2015. Rosneft, Russia's biggest oil producer, has asked the government for $40 billion to refinance its debts. Global oil prices have dipped below $100 a barrel, whereas the Russian budget is calibrated to balance at a price between $110 and $117 a barrel. Plugging those holes will be costly: Mr Putin must make awkward choices over what interests to offend. His likely response to economic hardship will be to blame Russia's enemies abroad for starting a new cold war.

　　但普京的冒险主义和复仇主义将会给俄罗斯争权带来新的危险。贬值的卢布和克里姆林宫对从美国和欧洲进口食品的禁令也意味着通货膨胀可能在明年达到8%。这可能会进一步刺激社会不满的程度，而战争本身却不会。现有的制裁以及未来前景将会拖累俄罗斯早已摇摇欲坠的经济。摩根史坦利投资公司预测俄罗斯在2015年将会有一场经济衰退。俄罗斯最大的石油生产商——俄罗斯石油公司，向政府索要4亿美元来偿还债务。全球石油价格已经降至100美元一桶，而俄罗斯却通过将每桶油价调整到110美元至117美元之间来平衡财政。堵住这些缺口耗资巨大：普京必须要在得罪什么样的利益之间做一个尴尬的决定。而他对经济困难的回应将会被国外反俄势力指责为要开始新一轮冷战。

　　In Kiev Mr Poroshenko faces his own difficulties—which may materialise well before Mr Putin's. He says he will introduce a law next week to create a “special status” for Donetsk and Luhansk. Many questions remain, however: not least, whether Ukraine will manage to regain control over its eastern border with Russia, a decisive factor in assessing if the pro-Russian insurgency can ever be pacified. All sides disagree over how much territory should fall under Mr Poroshenko's self-rule provision. Kiev sees only areas under rebel control—around a third of the two regions—with this status, but the rebels' leaders lay claim to the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk. Such issues will weigh on Ukraine's parliamentary election next month. Yuriy Yakymenko of the Razumkov Centre, a Kiev-based think-tank, says that, though most voters support peace in principle, the fate of Mr Poroshenko and his political block will come down to the question, “Peace at what price?”

　　在基辅，波罗申科面临他的困难—这些困难是在普京做出关于乌克兰的各项决定之前就存在的。他说他下周将会宣布一项针对顿尼茨克和卢甘斯克的“特别时期”法律。即使有很多问题残留，然而：相当重要的一点是，无论乌克兰是否将要设法重新夺回它与俄罗斯接壤的东部边界的控制权，亲俄派叛乱能否被评定都将是评估中的一项非常重要的因素。且各方都在争执有多少领土应该归属在波罗申科的自治规定下。基辅只看到了叛乱者控制下的地区—大约是顿尼茨克和卢甘斯克地区的三分之一—但是叛乱者首领在这种情况下对外宣称整个顿尼茨克与卢甘斯克都在他们的控制之下。这些问题都将会影响下个月的乌克兰议会选举。基辅主要智库—拉祖姆科夫中心的尤里·雅基门科说，即使绝大多数选民在原则上支持和平，但波罗申科与他政治团队的命运将在这个问题上出现下滑，“和平值多少钱？”

　　More immediately, much hinges on whether the ceasefire will keep holding. Mr Poroshenko says that Russia has pulled back 70% of the troops it had inside Ukraine. Yet fighting has flared up and then died down in Mariupol, around Donetsk airport and in several other places. At the same time prisoners are being exchanged. A bigger upsurge in violence could easily reignite the entire conflict.

　　更直接地，在停火协议是否能够继续维持方面有太多的“锁链”。波罗申科说俄罗斯必须撤除他们在乌克兰境内70%的军队。但是在顿尼茨克机场周围以及其他几个地方突然发生的抗争，随后在马里乌波尔消失。同一时间，俘虏们也正在被交换。一场更大的暴力高潮可以很轻易地重燃已经熄灭的争端之火。

　　On the Ukrainian side of the lines most soldiers appear relaxed, but few believe the ceasefire is anything but a respite. Visiting Mariupol on September 8th, Mr Poroshenko said the war was over and now Ukraine had to win the peace. That may be wishful thinking. Rebel leaders still aim to separate from Ukraine. Sergei Baryshnikov, a member of the rebel “parliament”, says a long military and political fight lies ahead. The rebel state of Novorossiya, he says, should eventually comprise all of the Black Sea coast to the borders of Romania and Moldova. And then it will become part of Russia, he adds.

　　在乌克兰边境线上绝大部分士兵表现得轻松，但有极小部分相信停火只是期望。在9月8日访问马里乌波尔，波罗申科说战争已经结束，现在乌克兰用和平取胜。那也许是一厢情愿的想法。叛乱者头目依然把从乌克兰分裂出去作为目的。叛乱者“议会”的议院的谢尔盖·巴雷什尼科夫说长期的军事政治斗争摆在面前，诺沃罗西斯克的叛乱州应该包括黑海沿岸到罗马尼亚与摩尔多瓦边境的全部地区。他又补充道，然后他们全部会变成俄罗斯的一部分。