俄罗斯的寡头执政者

　　Yukos 2.0?

　　尤思科2.0？

　　The arrest of Vladimir Yevtushenkov recalls that of Mikhail Khodorkovsky

　　软禁弗拉基米尔·叶夫图申科让人们回想起霍多尔科夫斯基

　　THE rules should be familiar to Vladimir Yevtushenkov, an oligarch with a 7 billion fortune who runs Sistema, which is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is in telecoms, tourism and oil. The state, he said in June, “will always find a way to put you in your place.” Now Mr Yevtushenkov is under house arrest, accused of money-laundering and handling stolen assets. Sistema lost over a third of its value in one day and the Russian stockmarket fell by 2%.

　　Sistema的寡头执政者弗拉基米尔·叶夫图申科对于一些规则理应是很熟悉的，他坐拥70亿美元财富并独掌这家业务范围涵盖通信，旅游，石油的上市公司。今年6月他曾表示：“这个国家总是能找到方法让你待在该待的地方。”而现在，叶夫图申科先生被指控洗钱和盗用资产，现在正遭到软禁。Sistema公司在一日之内失去了近三分之一的市值，并且在俄罗斯证券交易所的股价也下跌了2%。

　　霍多尔科夫斯基.jpg

　　Parallels have been drawn with the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 2003 and the transfer of assets in his oil company, Yukos, to Rosneft, a rival now run by Igor Sechin, a confidant of President Vladimir Putin. Dmitry Peskov, Mr Putin's press secretary, claimed that “It is wrong and absurd to paint this story in a political light.” Russia has changed since 2003. Before, security servicemen needed a political motive to take from disobedient oligarchs. Now obedience is no defence.

　　相似的故事在2003年时就已经上演过了，当时随着霍多尔科夫斯基的入狱，尤思科石油公司的财产也转移到了由普京心腹伊格尔·谢钦掌管的俄罗斯石油公司手中。普京的新闻发言人声称“将此次事件赋予政治因素，不仅是错误的，也是荒谬的”从2003年开始俄罗斯已经发生了改变。在那之前，证券行业的变动必须遵从来自那些反抗派的寡头执政者的政治动机。而现在，这种顺从已经毫无意义。

　　Whatever Mr Yevtushenkov's sins, they are not the source of his trouble. His loyalty to the Kremlin is unquestioned. The real cause seems to be his reluctance to part with an oil company wanted by Mr Sechin. Sistema bought Bashneft in 2009 for 2.5 billion from the son of a regional boss in Bashkortostan who, according to law enforcers, had expropriated it from the state. Rosneft proposed buying it from Mr Yevtushenkov, but he found the offer too low. House arrest may help him to change his mind.

　　事实上，叶夫图申科的罪行似乎并不是问题的根源。毫无疑问，他对克里姆林宫是忠诚的的。真正的原因似乎是他不愿意将一家石油公司卖给谢钦。2009年Sistema以25亿美元的价格从巴什科尔托斯坦地方政府手中收购了Bashneft公司—该公司根据法律被强制收归为国有。俄罗斯石油公司计划从叶夫图申科手中购入，但是叶夫图申科认为报价太低。也许这次软禁能改变他的想法。

　　Renewed infighting within the Russian elite reflects Western sanctions and a weakening economy. Rosneft is struggling to refinance 26 billion of debt due by the end of 2015. Oil production is falling, and the company needed some success to show Mr Putin. A takeover of Bashneft could cover its failings. This is Mr Khodorkovsky's view. He told Vedomosti, a business daily, that Mr Sechin “has not become any wiser, but perhaps just greedier.” The fight for the spoils in Russia can only grow more desperate.

　　俄罗斯精英阶层再次出现内斗，反应了西方制裁和日渐衰退的经济状况。俄罗斯石油公司正在努力筹集260亿美元资金，以在2015年时偿还债务。石油产量日渐下滑，公司需要给普京展现一些成就。如果能成功接管Bashneft ，那么就能掩盖它的衰退迹象。这正是霍多尔科夫斯基的观点，他告诉商业日报—Vedomosti：相比以往谢钦没有丝毫进步，反而可能只是更加贪婪。对于俄罗斯“战利品”的争夺只会令人更加绝望。