伦敦保险市场

　　Risky business

　　为风险投资

　　London's position as world-leader in insurance is under threat

　　伦敦在保险市场的老大地位受到威胁

　　FROM the doomed Titanic, an ocean liner (1m), to the legs of Cristiano Ronaldo, a footballer (144m), some of the biggest and most unusual risks have been taken on by the London insurance market, the oldest and largest in the world. Started more than 300 years ago in a coffee shop in Tower Street run by Edward Lloyd, the market was first thought up to share the hazards of mercantile trading adventures. It grew with the empire.

　　难逃劫数的远洋客轮泰坦尼克号（保险额1百万美元）和克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多的一条腿（保险额1亿4千4百万美元），分别是历史最悠久，规模最大的伦敦保险市场上投保最大和最特别的例子。发迹于300年前塔街爱德华·劳埃德(Edward Lloyd)的咖啡馆，保险最初是为了分担商业贸易的风险。保险随着大英帝国的崛起而红火起来。

　　Cyber-risk wasn't a problem for Mr Lloyd

　　网络风险对于劳埃德来说并不成问题

　　伦敦保险市场.jpg

　　Today, the sector employs 48,000 people, makes up 21% of the City's economy and underpins global industries like aviation (57% of whose insurance is underwritten in London) and shipping (33%). One tenth of global commercial insurance and 13% of reinsurance is underwritten in London, making the market roughly the same size as its three closest rivals—Bermuda, Singapore and Zurich—combined.

　　现在，有4800人在保险行业工作，保险行业占伦敦经济的21%，支撑着像航空（57%的保险都在伦敦承保）和航运（33%）等全球产业。全球商业保险的十分之一以及再保险的13%都在伦敦承保，使得伦敦的保险业务规模达到了其最接近的三个对手—百慕大、新加坡和苏黎世—保险业务之和。

　　However, a study published on November 10th by the London Market Group, which represents the industry, and Boston Consulting Group, a consultancy, says London's dominant position is under threat. While the rest of the City was forced to reform in recent decades, the insurance industry has remained largely unchanged. The report reckons as much as 40% of London's current insurance business is now at risk of going elsewhere.

　　但是，11月10日，作为保险业顾问的波士顿咨询集团和伦敦市场研究小组联合发布的调查结果声称伦敦保险业的主导地位正受到威胁。当伦敦的其他行业在近几十年来被迫改变的时候，保险业却基本一成不变。这份报告估计多达40%的伦敦现有保险业务将会流向别处。

　　Emerging markets accounted for 43% of world growth in the commercial insurance industry over the past three years—the Chinese market alone grew by 18% annually over that period. Yet London only managed to capture 0.5% of that growth. Its share of emerging markets fell to 2.5% in 2013 from 3.2% in 2010. The London market is also losing out to competitors in reinsurance (the insurance of insurers), where its share has fallen from 15% to 13% and is expected to drop further. The big threats here come from new market entrants (such as hedge funds) and expanding competitors such as Bermuda (whose reinsurance grew by 5%) and Singapore (10%).

　　在过去三年里，新兴市场在全球商业保险增长率中占有43%——仅中国市场就以每年18%的速度增长。但是伦敦却仅仅只占全球增长的0.5%。伦敦市场在新兴市场中的份额由2010的3.2%下降到2013年的2.5%。伦敦市场在再保险业务（保险人的保险）方面也输给了竞争对手，其再保险业务从市场中的15%下降到13%，据预计这个还会进一步下降。最大的威胁来自于市场的新进入者（比如对冲基金）和不断扩张的竞争对手比如百慕大（再保险业务增长了5%）和新加坡（10%）。

　　Perhaps the biggest challenge lies in finding solutions for new types of corporate risks. These include reputation- and cyber-risk. The insurance industry has failed to keep up with changing business needs and some chief executives say that as much as 90% of their corporate risks are currently not insurable, because nobody has come up with the right products.

　　或许最大的挑战来自为新型企业风险寻找不一样的解决方案。这些风险包括企业声誉和来自网络的风险。保险业未能跟上不断变化的商业需求，一些首席执行官说因为保险业的滞后，没有人提出合适的方案，90%的企业风险目前都不能投保。

　　The industry remains strangely old-fashioned. Only 35% of its workforce have a university degree, compared with 60% for the workforce in central London. It has also failed to compete on cost, with burdensome regulations and higher transaction costs adding up. Investors are pouring new capital into the wider insurance market. Customers have plenty of choice.

　　保险业依旧是奇怪的老样子。从事保险业的员工仅有35%拥有大学学位，而在伦敦中心工作的人拥有大学学位的比例达到了60%。繁重的规章制度加上越来越高的交易成本使得保险业在成本方面也落后于其他行业。投资者把资本投向更广阔的保险市场。客户也有更多的选择。

　　There is plenty London could do to improve, says the report. It needs to shift its focus to emerging markets and to high growth sectors. It also needs to lead the way in adopting the latest technological innovations to measure and predict risk. There have been great advances in telematics, for example. One device is a box increasingly used in cars to assess individual drivers' behaviour, which makes it easier to assess the risk of insuring them. Mr Lloyd might have approved of such radical innovation.

　　报告还称伦敦保险业还可以做很多改变。它需要将重心转移到新兴市场和高增长领域。它还需要引领科技潮流，采用最新科技创新来计算和预测风险。例如已经在远程信息处理上取得的重大进步，一个盒子外形的装置被逐渐应用到汽车上，使得评估投保人风险变得更加容易。劳埃德已经批准了这一突破性的创新。