印花税

　　Unexpected bills

　　不招人喜欢的税收

　　Why stamp-duty tax cuts may hurt homebuyers

　　削减印花税如何让房屋购买方受损

　　“TODAY I'm cutting stamp duty for millions of homebuyers,” crowed George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, on December 3rd when announcing reforms to stamp duty, a tax on buying property. Yet hidden in the forecasts of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is an assumption that implies most homebuyers will be made worse off by the tax cut. For every one percentage-point reduction in the tax, the OBR assumes that house prices will rise by 1.4%, leaving buyers with a bigger overall bill.

　　“今天我将为百万购房者削减房产印花税，”12月3号，乔治·奥斯在宣布房产印花税（一项针对购房征收的税收）改革的时候高兴的合不拢嘴。但是，预算责任局（OBR）的预测中却隐藏着这样一个假设，大多数购房者会因为减税而遭受损失。OBR预测印花税每下降一个百分点就意味着房价会上涨1.4%，对于消费者来说总支出提高。

　　房产印花税.jpg

　　At first sight, this seems odd. Economics suggests that the sensitivity of buyers and sellers to changes in the price—“price elasticity”, in the jargon—influences who ends up paying most for “transaction taxes” like stamp duty. Housing supply is not very responsive to price: it is hard to build homes quickly to take advantage of a price spike. That means, according to economic reasoning, that, if stamp duty is cut, you would expect prices to rise and sellers to benefit more than buyers.

　　乍一看，这个观点似乎没什么道理。经济学家认为买方和卖方对于价格变动的灵敏度，即经济学术语中的“价格弹性”，会影响谁最后为“交易税”比如印花税买单。房屋供给对价格的变化并不那么敏感：很难在价格峰值期内投机大量建造房屋。也就是说，根据经济学的推论，如果削减房产印花税，房价会按人们估计的上涨，卖方比买方获益更多。

　　What economists would not expect, though, is that buyers would end up absolutely worse off. So why are buyers left with a bigger overall bill? Mortgages are key to solving the mystery. Most buyers are what economists call “credit-constrained”. What they can splash out on a new place is limited by what they can borrow. And the amount they can borrow depends in part on how much cash they can put down as a deposit.

　　但经济学家不会估计购买者利益最后一定会受损。那么为什么印花税的削减会导致买方最后支出的总价更多？房屋贷款是揭开谜底的关键。大多数购房者就是经济学家所称的“信贷受限者”。他们能在购买房屋上挥霍的多少受限于他们能够借到多少。他们能够借到的数额又在某种程度上取决于他们能够拿出多少现金做抵押金。

　　Stamp duty—a bill which must be paid immediately on buying property—drains that cash. When it is cut, buyers can put down higher deposits and borrow more. As a result, demand rises, pushing up the price enough to more than offset the benefit of the tax cut.

　　房产印花税——必须在购房时马上支付的一项税收——榨干了他们可以作为抵押的现金。在印花税得到削减的同时。这部分人可以拿出更多的抵押金，借到更多的钱。这导致需求上涨，推动房价上涨，直到足以抵消减少印花税所带来的优惠。

　　If the OBR is right, buyers of a property that cost ￡300,000 before the change in stamp duty now face ￡4,000 less tax but a price ￡5,600 higher. Buyers who were not previously in the market but can now afford a deposit will benefit, but this group is small. The main winners are homeowners, who benefit from higher house prices.

　　如果OBR的预测是对的，那么在印花税改革前一套价值30万英镑的房屋，如今减少了4000英镑的税收但价格却提高了5万6千英镑。之前那些没有购房但现在可以拿出抵押金的人群将会受益，但是这一群体的数量很少。大部分的受益者还是房屋持有者，他们可以从高房价中赚取差价。

　　There is a parallel with the government's flagship intervention in the housing market: Help to Buy. That scheme aims to assist buyers who cannot afford deposits by providing them with government loans. But its biggest effect is to boost demand and hence prices. Homeowners keep winning from government policy.

　　有一项政策与政府房地产市场的主要干预并驾齐驱：帮助购买。该计划旨在通过提供政府贷款来帮助那些无力支付抵押金的人们。但是它最大的作用是刺激需求，然后抬升价格。房屋所有者是政府政策中永远的赢家。