美联储10月货币政策会议或不会加息（在线收听）

美联储10月货币政策会议或不会加息

Beijing's official figures suggests China's economy is growing at close to seven percent-but very few people actually believe that.

北京的官方数据显示中国的经济增长速度接近约7%，但实际上很少有人相信这个数字。

Richard Hunter is head of equities at London investment firm Hargreaves Lansdown.

查德·亨特是伦敦投资公司Hargreaves Lansdown股市方面的负责人。

“Indeed some of the companies who do business in China are tending to suggest that the growth rate may be nearer half that sort of figure."

“确实在中国做生意的一些公司认为增长率可能接近那个数字的一半。”

That uncertainty is partly responsible for renewed concerns about the impact of slowing Chinese demand on the U.S. economy.

这种不确定性在一定程度上是由于中国对美国经济需求放缓的影响所导致。

Despite a much improved job market, a high dollar exchange and low inflation makes the U.S. more vulnerable to external risks, says Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard who spoke recently to the National Association for Business Economics.

美国联邦储备理事会负责人拉尔·布雷纳德最近在全国企业经济学家协会上表示尽管就业市场得到大幅改善,但高汇率及低通胀使得美元更加容易受外部风险影响。

“Given the downside risks, we would be wise to continue to carefully nurture the U.S. recovery. And we should be cautious in prematurely taking away the support that has been so critical to its vitality."

“鉴于下滑风险,我们应该明智地继续将注意力花在美国经济复苏上。而且我们应该在贸然取消对其生命力至关重要的支持方面谨慎选择。”

The Fed has not ruled out a modest rate hike this year,but N.A.B.E. president Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly says the U.S. central bank may have added to the uncertainty by going beyond its domestic goals of full employment and stable prices.

美联储还没有排除今年的小幅度加息,但N.A.B.E.的主席丽莎·艾斯博·马汀莉表示越过充分就业和物价稳定的目标，可能使得美国央行可能增加不确定性。

“They added sort of a third element which was the international element and I think that the markets had a lot of difficulty digesting that. And there's a concept of ambiguity that I think the Fed may have introduced into the market unintentionally."

“他们补充第三个元素是国际元素,而且我认为在市场消化方面会面临很多困难。而且有一个模糊的概念,我认为美联储可能无意中被带入市场。”

Some analysts say an October rate hike remains a long shot-leaving the door open for the Fed's next meeting in December.

一些分析人士表示10月加息仍是一场风险大的赌注，这要为12月的美联储在下一场会议敞开大门。

But in an inter-connected global economy, experts say much will depend on the stability of emerging markets-even for the world's largest economy.

但在这样一个相互关联的全球经济,专家表示这在很大程度上取决于稳定的新兴市场，甚至世界最大的经济体也是如此。