VOA常速英语2016--英国公投脱离欧盟 众多隐患危机四伏（在线收听）

英国公投脱离欧盟 众多隐患危机四伏

The Washington-based Pew Research Center interviewed 10,000 people across Europe. Theiranswers showed that skepticism about the EU was not confined to Britain. France viewed thebloc even more unfavorably than its neighbor across the English Channel, with just 38 percentof people having a positive opinion of the EU, compared with 69 percent in 2004. In Spain,approval of the EU has fallen from 80 percent to 47 percent. Tim Oliver of the London Schoolof Economics said a British vote to leave the EU could lead to demands for similar referendumsacross the continent. “However, whether or not they’ll succeed depends on, one, what happensto the UK. If the UK struggles, then that sets quite a powerful message to the rest of theEuropean Union." And secondly, it depends on what happens in the Eurozone, it depends whathappens in Schengen, it depends what happens with Russia. The European Union faces severalcrises at the moment, and Britain is one of them.” Oliver added that a British divorce from theEU likely would be lengthy and bitter. For the rest of the EU, “there has to be an economiccost" to the United Kingdom if it leaves the bloc, he said. "The UK can’t withdraw and not feelany punishment, any costs and so forth, and get a new relationship with the EU, or else thatmight encourage other member states to do the same thing.”

Refugee crisis

Pew researchers said much of the disapproval of the EU is related to its handling of therefugee crisis. More than 1 million migrants arrived in Greece in 2015; disapproval of Brussels’migrant policies there runs at 94 percent. A simultaneous so-called Brexit crisis could pushEurope to the brink. “They haven’t solved each crisis, they’ve just managed to cope and moveon, and hope they’ll find a solution later on. If several crises align at the same time, that putsthe EU in uncharted territory, and that is quite dangerous.” In a speech Wednesday, formerBritish Foreign Secretary William Hague warned that a British exit could sow wider division. “Ifwe lift our eyes from our local concerns to the challenges coming our way within this continentand beyond it, then the risks of leaving are too great," Hague said at analyst group ChathamHouse. "Above all, the danger of a fractured, divided and weakened West is one we must do ourutmost to avoid.” And with disapproval of the EU growing across the continent, analysts saya British exit could have much wider consequences for Europe and beyond.

华盛顿皮尤研究中心在欧洲不同地方对1万人进行了采访。他们的回答表明欧洲人对欧盟的怀疑不只是因为英国。其中，法国人对欧盟的负面看法要多于英吉利海峡的其他邻国：仅有38%的法国人对欧盟持有正面的观点。而这一比例在2004是69%。无独有偶，西班牙民众对欧盟的支持率也从80%掉到47%。伦敦经济学院的奥利弗表示，伦敦通过公投之举离开欧盟可能会引起其他欧盟国家效仿其做法。“不过，他们是否能成功取决于两点。一是英国的情况。如果英国在脱离欧盟后境况不佳，则这对于其他欧盟国家来说是一个强有力的信号。”“二是取决于其他多个方面的情况，比如欧元区、申根、俄罗斯等。欧盟当前面临诸多危机，而英国就是其中之一。”奥利弗还说，英国脱离欧盟之旅也不会轻松。而对于欧盟其他国家来说，英国离开欧盟“经济上肯定会付出一定的代价”。英国离开欧盟，不可能全身而退，其与欧盟的关系一定不同于以往。如若不然，英国的举动会鼓励其他国家效仿。

难民危机

皮尤的研究人员称，欧盟不同意英国脱离与难民危机的处理有关。2015年一年就有100多万难民来到希腊；有94%的人不支持比利时的难民政策。而英国的推出也会将欧盟的境地推往风口浪尖。“目前为止，他们也没有解决任何危机，只是得过且过，寄希望于以后能找到解决办法。但是如果现在有几个危机同时爆发，那欧盟就会处于前所未有的危险境地。”英国前外交部秘书长威廉·黑格在一段演讲中警告说，英国退出欧盟可能会埋下更多分裂危机的种子。黑格在皇家国际事务研究所的演讲中说道，“如果我们不把眼光局限于英国，而去观望整个欧盟的话，那所面临的危机非常大。”“毕竟，如果西方四分五裂、危如累卵的话，我们所有国家都要尽全力去避免。”分析家指出，而随着欧盟的否决传遍整个欧元区，英国的推出可能会对欧盟和更多的地方产生深远而广泛的影响。