在本土遭受自“9?11”事件以来最严重的恐怖袭击后，美国当局目前相信，奥马尔?马丁(Omar Mateen)可能是一名疯狂的“独狼”枪手，虽然他打着“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)的旗号，但他并非该组织接受过相关培训的秘密人员。

Initial indications suggest that Mr Mateen, who killed 49 at a nightclub in Orlando on Saturday , falls into a distinctive pattern of recent American jihadi violence, a US citizen who operates as a lone wolf and who has little, if any, direct link to a terrorist organisation.

上周日凌晨，马丁在奥兰多一家夜总会里杀死了49人。最初迹象表明，马丁符合最近美国圣战暴力活动的独特模式，即一名美国公民像“独狼”一样行动，与恐怖组织几乎没有直接联系。

If that conclusion is confirmed by an investigation that is still in its early stages, the Orlando shootings will highlight the different challenge that law enforcement faces in the US compared with Europe, which is battling against organised terrorist cells.

如果这一结论被目前仍处于早期阶段的调查证实，奥兰多枪击案将突显出美国执法部门面临的与欧洲不同的挑战。欧洲执法部门正在打击有组织的恐怖小组。

For all their improved tradecraft and encryption, Isis cells in the west still have to communicate and co-ordinate, sometimes leaving clues. Lone wolves, by contrast, move in near-total silence: any evidence they leave tends to make sense only once their work is done.

尽管谍报和加密技术有所提高，但西方的ISIS恐怖小组仍不得不彼此交流和合作，有时会留下线索。相比之下，“独狼”近乎无迹可循。他们留下的一切蛛丝马迹往往在他们得手后才为人察觉。

“The most difficult type [of attacks] are the self-radicalised, lone wolves,” says Frances Townsend, former homeland security adviser to President George W Bush. “It is easier to identify and intercept attacks where a terrorist group has direct operational control than it is to intercept self-radicalisation.”

曾担任美国前总统小布什(George W. Bush)国土安全顾问的弗朗西丝?汤森(Frances Townsend)表示：“最难发现的（袭击）类型是自我激进化的独狼行动。发现并拦截恐怖组织直接操作控制的恐怖袭击，要比拦截自我激进化的行动容易。”

Although the risk of Isis attacks in the US is thought to be considerably lower than in western Europe, the US authorities have reported a surge in jihadist activities over the past two years. James Comey, director of the FBI, said last month that there were 1,000 open investigations into online recruitment by Isis and other terrorist organisations. According to Lorenzo Vidino and Seamus Hughes at George Washington University, the US authorities arrested 209 individuals on terrorism-related charges from 2011 to 2012, but have arrested 71 for links to Isis since 2014.

尽管在美国发生ISIS袭击的风险被认为显著低于西欧国家，但美国当局过去两年报告的圣战活动数量大幅上升。美国联邦调查局(FBI)局长詹姆斯?科米(James Comey)上月表示，目前有1000起针对ISIS和其他恐怖组织在线招募活动的开放调查。乔治华盛顿大学(George Washington University)的洛伦佐?维迪诺(Lorenzo Vidino)和谢默斯?休斯(Seamus Hughes)表示，美国当局在2011年至2012年间逮捕了209名恐怖活动嫌疑人，但自2014年以来逮捕了71名与ISIS有关联的嫌疑人。

A US official said yesterday that there were no indications yet of direct links between Mr Mateen and Isis, however the FBI is only starting to investigate his recent history, including two visits for religious pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia in 2011 and 2012.

一位美国官员昨日表示，迄今还没有迹象表明马丁与ISIS存在直接联系，然而FBI只是刚开始调查他的近期历史，包括在2011年和2012年两次前往沙特阿拉伯朝圣。

From the information released so far, Mr Mateen appears to follow a mould of jihadi attacks seen since 9/11. Like Nidal Hasan, who killed 13 at Fort Hood in 2009, and Syed Farook, one of the San Bernardino shooters, he was a US citizen and at 29, no longer a young firebrand.

从迄今发布的信息看，马丁似乎遵循自“9?11”事件以来的圣战袭击模式。与2009年在得克萨斯州胡德堡(Fort Hood)杀死13人的尼达尔?哈桑(Nidal Hasan)和圣贝纳迪诺(San Bernardino)枪击案凶手赛义德?法鲁克(Syed Farook)一样，马丁是美国公民，29岁，不再是年轻的狂热分子。

Analysts say he fits into a pattern of troubled or marginal individuals being attracted by Isis. Mr Mateen’s ex-wife has suggested he was mentally unstable. “A few months after we were married, I saw his instability, and I saw that he was bipolar and he would get mad out of nowhere,” she told CNN. In January, the Justice Department said it had arrested a man in Rochester, New York who had been planning to place a bomb in a restaurant on New Year’s Eve and who was described as a “panhandler”.

分析人士表示，他符合被ISIS吸引的精神混乱者或边缘人的特点。马丁前妻表示，他的精神状态不稳定。她向美国有线新闻网(CNN)表示：“在我们结婚几个月后，我发现他精神状态不稳定，情绪两极化，会莫名其妙地发狂。”今年1月，美国司法部表示，在纽约罗切斯特(Rochester)逮捕了一名计划在新年前夜在一家餐馆放置炸弹的男子，该男子被形容为“乞丐”。

For some of these individuals, Isis has become a “a banner, a rallying cry”, said Michael Weiss at the Atlantic Council in Washington. “Isis is seen as being a thriving, world-historical movement, that offers violence and an anti-western worldview.”

华盛顿大西洋理事会(Atlantic Council)的迈克尔?韦斯(Michael Weiss)表示，对某些此类人来说，ISIS已成为“一面旗帜、一个战斗口号”，“他们视ISIS为一场蓬勃发展、具有世界历史意义的运动，提供了暴力和反西方的世界观”。

Unfortunately for the US authorities, Mr Mateen also ticks another box: previous investigation by the FBI. Like Mr Hasan and Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the older brother in the Boston bombing in 2013, he was questioned by the FBI in 2013 and 2014, but no action was taken.

对美国当局而言遗憾的是，马丁还符合另一点：他之前接受过FBI的调查。与哈桑和2013年波士顿爆炸案两名兄弟凶手中的哥哥塔梅尔兰?察尔纳耶夫(Tamerlan Tsarnaev)一样，马丁曾在2013年和2014年接受过FBI的询问，但FBI当时没有采取任何行动。

By contrast, several of the young attackers in Paris and Brussels had travelled to Syria for training and direction. Returning to Europe, they joined other homegrown jihadis in a mega-cell of between 30 and 90 members.

相比之下，巴黎和布鲁塞尔的数名年轻袭击者曾到叙利亚接受培训和指导。在返回欧洲后，他们加入了有30至90名成员的其他本土圣战组织。

Claude Moniquet, a former French spy and co-founder of the European Strategic Intelligence and Security Centre, said there was “clearly a different strategy for Isis in continental Europe on the one hand and in the US and UK on the other”. In Britain and the US, “they advise their followers not to come to Syria and Iraq but to?.?.?.?carry out individual strikes in their country”.

前法国间谍、欧洲战略情报与安全中心(European Strategic Intelligence and Security Centre)联合创始人克洛德?莫尼凯(Claude Moniquet)表示，“ISIS在欧洲大陆和在美英的战略显然不同”。在英国和美国，“他们建议追随者不要去叙利亚和伊拉克，而是……在本国实施个人袭击活动”。

A key reason, he says, is that tighter border security means it is more difficult to travel from the US and UK to Syria than from continental Europe. The leader of the Paris attacks, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, for example, was able to repeatedly travel to Belgium before the killings, despite being the subject of an international manhunt.

他说，一个关键原因是，更为严厉的边境安全控制意味着从美英到叙利亚比从欧洲大陆到叙利亚更为困难。例如，巴黎恐怖袭击事件头目阿卜杜勒-哈米德?阿巴伍德(Abdelhamid Abaaoud)能够在袭击前多次前往比利时，尽管他受到国际通缉。

Alexander Ritzmann, policy adviser at the European Foundation for Democracy, says it is becoming increasingly hard to see the line between an attack directed by Isis and one where the att-acker associates with Isis. The question, he says, is whether Isis recruits “lone wolves,” or do they recruit themselves. “Giving it the brand of the Islamic state makes you famous compared with just being whatever crazy shooter,” he notes.

欧洲民主基金会(European Foundation for Democracy)政策顾问亚历山大?里茨曼(Alexander Ritzmann)表示，现在越来越难以区分ISIS下令展开的袭击和与ISIS有关联的袭击者发起的袭击。他说，问题在于到底是ISIS招募了“独狼”，还是“独狼”自我招募。他指出：“与只是某位疯狂的枪手相比，贴上ISIS的标签会让你出名。”