The Optimism Bias

 

盲目乐观的好处

We like to think of ourselves as rational creatures.

我们喜欢把自己当作理智的生物。

We watch our backs, weigh the odds, pack an umbrella.

我们总会提防背后的危险，权衡胜负的几率，随身携带雨伞以防下雨。

But both neuroscience and social science suggest that we are more optimistic than realistic.

但神经学和社会学都揭示，我们的乐观性大于现实性。

On average, we expect things to turn out better than they wind up being.

一般而言，我们总会把事情想得比真实情况更好一些。

People hugely underestimate their chances of getting divorced,losing their job or being diagnosed with cancer;

人们会大大低估他们离婚，失业或得癌症的可能性；

expect their children to be extraordinarily gifted;

期望自己的孩子拥有非凡的天分；

envision themselves achieving more than their peers;

想象自己能比同辈获得更大的成就；

and overestimate their likely life span.

人们也会高估自己的寿命。

The belief that the future will be much better than the past and present is known as the optimism bias.

这种相信未来会比过去和现在好得多的想法被称为乐观主义偏见。

It abides in every race, region and socioeconomic bracket.

它存在于每个种族，地区和社会经济阶层。

Schoolchildren playing when-I-grow-up are rampant optimists,but so are grownups:

玩等我正大后游戏的学童是典型的乐观主义者。而成年人也一样。

a recent study found that adults over 60 are just as likely to see the glass half full as young adults.

最近一项调查发现，超过60岁的成年人和年轻的成年人一样倾向于还有半杯水的乐观主义看法。

You might expect optimism to erode under the tide of news about violent conflicts,high unemployment, tornadoes and floods and all the threats and failures that shape human life.

当人们淹没在暴力冲突，高失业率，龙卷风，洪水等负面新闻以及生活中的威胁和失败的潮水中时，你可能会觉得乐观主义会被逐渐磨灭。

Collectively we can grow pessimistic-about the direction of our country or the ability of our leaders to improve education and reduce crime.

总体而言我们会变得悲观—对我们国家的走向，或是领导人改善教育，减少犯罪的能力。

But private optimism, about our personal future,remains incredibly resilient.

但个人的乐观主义—关于我们个人的未来—却难以置信地丝毫未减。

A survey conducted last year found that while 70% thought families in general were less successful than in their parents' day,76% of respondents were optimistic about the future of their own family.

去年的一项调查显示，尽管70%的受访者认为现在的家庭普遍没有他们父辈时那么成功，却有76%的人对他们自己家庭的未来表示乐观。

Overly positive assumptions can lead to disastrous miscalculations-make us less likely to get health checkups,apply sunscreen or open a savings account,and more likely to bet the farm on a bad investment.

过于积极的设想可能会导致灾难性的的失算。它使我们不大会想到去做体检，抹防晒霜，或开储蓄账户；同时很可能使你把所有家产押在糟糕的投资上。

But the bias also protects and inspires us:it keeps us moving forward rather than to the nearest high-rise ledge.

但这种偏见也会保护和鼓舞我们:它使我们不断前进，而不是去寻找最近的高台。

Without optimism,our ancestors might never have ventured far from their tribes and we might all be cave dwellers,still huddled together and dreaming of light and heat.

没有乐观主义，我们的祖先可能永远不会远离他们的部落去冒险，我们可能都还群居在洞穴里，挤在一起梦想着光和热。

To make progress,we need to be able to imagine alternative realities- better ones-and we need to believe that we can achieve them.

要寻求发展，我们必须想象出不同的现实—更好的现实—并且要相信我们能够实现。

Such faith helps motivate us to pursue our goals.

这样的信念可以为我们追求目标提供动力。

Optimists in general work longer hours and tend to earn more.

乐观主义者通常会工作更长的时间，也更可能赚得更多。

Economists at Duke University found that optimists even save more.

杜克大学的经济学家发现，乐观主义者甚至会有更多的储蓄。

And although they are not less likely to divorce,they are more likely to remarry-an act that is,as Samuel Johnson wrote,the triumph of hope over experience.

虽然他们离婚的几率不会比别人低，但他们更容易再婚—如塞缪尔?约翰逊曾写到的，这是希望战胜了经验。