上帝似乎在戏耍美国的保守派。在唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)获得共和党总统候选人提名的这一天，福克斯新闻(Fox News)的传奇创始人罗杰?艾尔斯(Roger Ailes)即将走下自己的宝座。

　　Mr Trump’s rise may have taken the world by surprise but it is hard to imagine his message having taken root without Mr Ailes’ groundwork.

　　特朗普的崛起或许让世界措手不及，但很难想象特朗普是在没有艾尔斯支持的情况下，成功让自己传递的讯息扎下了根。

　　Felled by sexual harassment allegations from a former Fox anchor, the news channel’s departing creator is no household name. Yet Mr Ailes has played wizard behind the curtain to more than two generations of Republican presidential candidates, conservative pundits and intellectuals. He is the creator and destroyer of ambitions — the Shiva of US conservatism. Without Mr Ailes, Rupert Murdoch would have been a far less potent figure on the US scene.

　　艾尔斯是被这家新闻电视台的一名前主播的性骚扰指控打倒的，这位即将离职的福克斯新闻创始人并不是一个家喻户晓的人物。然而，他是超过两代共和党总统候选人、保守派专家和知识分子的幕后操盘手。他是野心的创造者和毁灭者——美国保守主义的湿婆。没有艾尔斯，鲁伯特?默多克(Rupert Murdoch)在美国的影响力会小得多。

　　In fact God’s theatrical timing is even odder than it seems. Mr Trump’s convention theme draws explicitly from Richard Nixon’s successful 1968 law and order presidential campaign, which was shaped by a young Mr Ailes. That was the election that launched the then 27-year-old on to the national scene. Mr Ailes cornered Mr Nixon and said: “The camera doesn’t like you,” in reference to his notorious 1960 televised debate performance with John Kennedy. “It’s a shame you have to use gimmicks like television to get elected,” Nixon replied. “Television is not a gimmick,” Ailes replied. “And if you think it is, you’ll lose again.” Mr Ailes’ role was chronicled in the classic book The Selling of the President. From then on, he was an acknowledged master of that medium.

　　事实上，上帝的戏剧性时间安排比看上去更奇怪。在共和党全国代表大会上，特朗普的讲话主题明显取自理查德?尼克松(Richard Nixon)1968年有关法律和秩序的成功竞选主题，后者正是由当时还很年轻的艾尔斯操刀的。那次选举让当时27岁的艾尔斯走上了全国舞台。艾尔斯强势地对尼克松说：“电视镜头不喜欢你。”他说的是1960年尼克松在与约翰?肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)进行电视辩论时出名的糟糕表现。“为了当选而不得不利用像电视这样的噱头，这真令人遗憾，”尼克松回答。“电视不是噱头，”艾尔斯回答说，“而且如果你这么想，你会再一次失败。”艾尔斯所扮演的角色载入了经典图书《推销总统》(The Selling of the President)之中。从那时起，他就是公认的电视媒介大师。

　　Mr Ailes came from a blue-collar background — his father was a factory foreman in Ohio. He has described his upbringing as “God, country, family”. Those small-town values have always driven his politics. But his genius as a media figure and political consultant was built on something deeper: a psychological insight into middle America’s profound resentment of urban liberal elites.

　　艾尔斯来自于一个蓝领家庭——他的父亲是俄亥俄州的一名工厂工头。他将他所受到的教养描述为“上帝、乡村、家庭”。那些小镇价值观一直推动着他的政治生涯。但他作为一个媒体人物和政治顾问的天才建立在更深层的东西上：一种对“美国心脏地带（middle America，这是美式英语中的一句俗语，用于描述地理上的美国大部分乡村与郊区的文化状态和区域特征——编者注）”憎恶城市自由派精英之深刻情绪的心理洞察力。

　　It was a mindset he spotted in Nixon. He also advised two other presidents, including George H.W. Bush, and figures such as Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York. It was Mr Ailes, not Lee Atwater, who proposed and filmed the infamous Willie Horton advertisements in 1988 that helped destroy Michael Dukakis’s presidential chances and elect Bush senior. Much like Nixon’s 1968 campaign, and Mr Trump’s “Make America safe again” theme, the Willie Horton ads played on white fears of black crime.

　　他在尼克松身上看到了这种心态。他还担任过包括老布什(George H.W. Bush)在内的另外两位总统和前纽约市长鲁迪?朱利安尼(Rudy Giuliani)等人物的顾问。也是艾尔斯，而非李?阿特沃特(Lee Atwater)，提议并拍摄了1988年著名的威利?霍顿(Willie Horton)广告，从而使迈克尔?杜卡基斯(Michael Dukakis)当上总统的机会化为乌有，而老布什得以当选。和尼克松1968年的竞选主题以及特朗普的“让美国再次安全起来”(Make America safe again)的竞选主题一样，威利?霍顿广告利用了白人对黑人犯罪的恐惧。

　　But it was only with the launch of Fox News, which will celebrate its 20th birthday in October, that Mr Ailes began to alter the contours of the US political landscape.

　　但艾尔斯真正开始改变美国的政治面貌，是在福克斯新闻开播以后。福克斯新闻将在今年10月份迎来建台20周年纪念。

　　Some compare Fox’s influence to Rush Limbaugh’s daily talk radio show, or Matt Drudge’s website the Drudge Report. But Fox’s ability to dictate mainstream opinion is far greater than that. At $1bn in annual profits, Fox News makes more money than all the other cable TV and network news channels combined. No channel can make or break a presidential hopeful like Fox. Candidates launch their bids from Fox studios and earn their keep in between elections as paid Fox contributors. Among others, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, John Kasich and Mr Guiliani have all been employed by Fox.

　　一些人将福克斯的影响力和拉什?林博(Rush Limbaugh)的每日电台脱口秀、或马特?德鲁奇(Matt Drudge)的网站“德鲁奇报告”(Drudge Report)相比。但福克斯主宰主流观点的能力远大于这两者。福克斯新闻的年利润达到10亿美元，赚的钱比所有其他有线电视和网络新闻频道加起来还要多。没有哪个频道能像福克斯一样制造或者毁掉一个有希望的总统竞选人。竞选人们从福克斯的演播室里宣布参选，在大选之间的间隔担任福克斯的付费嘉宾挣自己的生活费。纽特?金里奇(Newt Gingrich)、迈克?哈克比(Mike Huckabee)、里克?桑托勒姆(Rick Santorum)、约翰?卡西奇(John Kasich)和朱利安尼都被福克斯聘用过。

　　One exception is Mr Trump, whose love-hate relationship with Fox last year played out through his public duel with Megyn Kelly, its most highly rated anchor, whom Mr Trump described as a “bimbo”. Their reconciliation was brokered by Mr Ailes earlier this year but only after Mr Trump had boycotted a Fox-hosted presidential debate.

　　特朗普是一个例外，他和福克斯爱恨交织的关系，去年以他和福克斯评价最高的主持人梅金?凯利(Megyn Kelly)的公开交锋而在大众面前上演，特朗普称凯利是一个“花瓶”。两人今年早些时候在艾尔斯的调停下和解，但之前特朗普抵制了福克斯主持的一场总统辩论。

　　The New York property magnate is the first big Republican figure to have taken on Mr Ailes and come off evens — if not better. His rise is perhaps the clearest sign that Fox News’s political influence may have passed its peak. To be sure, Mr Trump continues to bask in the support of leading Fox anchors, such as Bill O’Reilly and Sean Hannity. But, unlike his predecessors, Mr Trump can always turn to another medium, Twitter, which has been his chief publicity tool since he declared his candidacy.

　　这位纽约地产大亨是首位和艾尔斯正面较量并以平局收场（如果不是更占上风的话）的共和党大人物。他的崛起可能是表明福克斯新闻的政治影响力已过巅峰的最清楚迹象。诚然，特朗普将继续享受比尔?奥雷利(Bill O' Reilly)、肖恩?汉尼蒂(Sean Hannity)等福克斯主要主持人的支持。但和他的前辈不同，特朗普总可以转向另一个媒介——Twitter。自他宣布参选以来，Twitter一直是特朗普主要的宣传工具。

　　Doubtless Nixon would have seen Twitter as a gimmick, as did many of Mr Trump’s rivals in the Republican primaries. But as Mr Ailes showed, political success requires mastery of the age’s leading medium. It is perhaps fitting that television’s “evil genius” is stepping aside just as politics moves on to newer technologies.

　　毫无疑问，尼克松肯定会把Twitter看成噱头，就如特朗普在共和党初选中的许多竞争对手那样。但就如艾尔斯展示的，政治成功需要掌握当代最领先的媒介。随着政治转向更新的技术，电视“鬼才”退出舞台或许恰如其分。