德国政治

　　When all parties lead to Angela

　　当所有政党都倾向安吉拉的时候

　　Confusion reigns in Germany’s party politics. That may not affect who wins next year’s election

　　德国政坛仍疑云重重，但丝毫不影响明年大选的胜者

　　Less than a year before Germany’s federal election, Chancellor Angela Merkel is doing well, at least at home. Her centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are leading in the polls. Better still, the other parties are making news either for being in a shambles or, whenever for a moment they are not, for speculation that they might join a coalition in which Mrs Merkel would be senior partner and thus remain as chancellor.

　　离德国联邦大选还有不到一年的时间，但至少在国内事务方面，安吉拉·默克尔总理做的很好。在民意调查中，她领导的中右基督教民主联盟（CDU）和其巴伐利亚姊妹党，基督教社会联盟（CSD）占据了领先地位。好事成双，有关其他政党的新闻要么报道他们处于一片混乱，即使是当他们运行良好的时候，到处也都猜测他们将加入以默克尔为领导的联合政党，而她也将继续出任德国总理。

　　Mrs Merkel’s biggest coup has been to remain personally unsullied by the otherwise disappointing performance of the ruling coalition of the CDU and CSU with the smaller Free Democratic Party (FDP). The world might assume that German politics is given over to the country’s responsibility to save the euro. Instead, the CSU and FDP have spent most of their political energy on tactical projects that are either daft (for the CSU) or petty (the FDP).

　　尽管由基督教民主联盟（CDU）和基督教社会联盟（CSU）以及规模稍小的自由民主党（FDP）组成的执政联盟在其他方面表现令人失望，但是默克尔总理始终保持个人清白，这是她最妙的招。全世界都认为德国政坛一直致力于履行本国对拯救欧元区的职责。相反，基督教社会联盟（CSU）和自由民主党（FDP）将他们大部分政治能量都花在他们那些愚蠢（CSU）和琐碎（FDP）的战术项目上。

　　This month, for example, the CSU tried to pander to Bavaria’s family-values voters by pushing through a new subsidy to parents who care for toddlers at home rather than sending them to a creche. Conveniently, the payments will begin next August, just before both the Bavarian and the federal elections. Most parties, notably the FDP, see this policy as an expensive step backwards for a modern society that could leave children of poor families deprived of education. But the FDP accepted it in return for getting rid of a 10 ($12.6) fee that publicly insured patients have to pay once a quarter when they see their doctor.

　　举个例子，本月基督教社会联盟（CSU）推动了一项新的补贴措施，给在家照顾学步儿童而不是送他们到托儿所的父母提供津贴，以试图迎合巴伐利亚重视家庭价值观的选民。恰逢时宜的是，该补贴明年8月就开始发放，恰好在巴伐利亚大选和联邦大选之前。以自由民主党（FDP）为主的大部分政党认为该政策是现代社会倒退的一步，其代价之昂贵可能会剥夺贫困家庭孩子的受教育机会。但是自由民主党（FDP）还是接受了该政策，并作为回报减免了10欧元（12.6美元）的费用，这公开地保证了需每季度支付一次医药费的病人的生活。

　　That the FDP is reduced to horse-trading over such minutiae says a lot about the collapse of this once-grand liberal party. The polls suggest it may get less than 5% of votes in the election, and would thus be ejected from the Bundestag. If an election in Lower Saxony in January confirms such a poor showing, the FDP’s leader, Philipp Rosler (who is also economics minister), will surely have to go. There are even rumours of a plot to oust him sooner.

　　自由民主党（FDP）沦落到在这种细枝末节上讨价还价，这很大程度上体现了这个曾今的伟大的自由政党的沦陷。民意调查显示其在大选中得到的选票不会超过5%，而且可能会因此被驱逐出联邦议院。如果一月份下萨克森州进行的大选证实了这个糟糕的调查结果，那么FDP的领导人，菲利普·罗斯勒（他还是经济部长），将不得不离职。甚至有传言他们已经在密谋立刻驱逐他。

　　With the coalition so preoccupied, the main opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) might have been expected to attack more effectively. That was the idea behind picking Peer Steinbruck, a famously sharp-tongued former finance minister, as the party’s candidate for chancellor. Mr Steinbruck has, however, become embroiled in a sustained debate about the speaking fees he has been earning on the side (1.25m since 2009, the highest of any Bundestag member). Never loved by his party’s blue-collar and trade-union base, Mr Steinbruck, the millionaire, may have turned off many of his erstwhile comrades completely.

　　由于联合政府占据着显著的主导地位，主要的反对派社会民主党（SPD）可能需要采取更加有效的政治攻击。一个幕后想法就是推选以言语犀利而著称的前财政部长佩尔·施泰因布吕尔为该党的总理候选人。然而，施泰因布吕尔卷入到一场有关他在位期间所得的高额演讲费的持续辩论中（从2009年至今高达125万欧元，德国联邦议员中的最高值）。百万富翁施泰因布吕尔先生从来没有得到他所在党派的蓝领阶层和工会基地的厚爱，他可能已经完全失去了许多昔日同事的信任。

　　It is telling that the SPD chairman, Sigmar Gabriel, is continually having to parry questions about an election outcome in which the SPD would play second fiddle to Mrs Merkel in another “grand coalition”, like the one Germany had from 2005-09. Absolutely not, insist both Mr Gabriel and Mr Steinbruck, claiming that they overlap ideologically only with the Greens, the other centre-left party. (The Left Party is still considered too toxic to touch, for it descends largely from the old East German Communist Party, and it is anyway also struggling to stay in parliament.)

　　有消息称大选结果将会产生另外一个和德国2005-09期间实行的非常相似的“大联合政府”，而社会民主党（SPD）将会充当默克尔总理的副手，关于该结果的问题层出不穷，社会民主党（SPD）主席西格玛尔·加布里尔不得不一直回避这些问题。绝不可能，加布里尔和施泰因布吕尔都坚决否认，他们声称他们的思想理念只和另一个中左党派绿党（the Greens）有异曲同工之妙。（左翼党仍然被民众认为是有害政党而不愿涉及，因为其很大程度上起源于老派的东德共产党，而且无论如何它也挣扎在议会的边缘。）

　　The SPD is terrified whenever the Greens generate optimism for the wrong reason: their suitability as an alternative coalition partner for Mrs Merkel. The Greens have been on a roll since capturing the mayorship of Stuttgart, capital of the rich south-western state of Baden-Wurttemberg, which is also the first and so far only state to be governed by a Green premier. Their success is credited to the dominance within the party’s southern branch of the “realo” wing: pragmatists who can appeal to ecologically minded but conservative urban voters. Such “bourgeois” Greens could get along fine with the CDU and CSU in Berlin, goes the thinking.

　　社会民主党（SPD）无时无刻不担心绿党由于错误原因而过分乐观：他们可以作为默克尔的备用的联盟伙伴。自从夺得了斯图加特市长的职位后，绿党一直运行顺畅。斯图加特是德国南部富有的巴登-符腾堡州的首都，这也是绿党总理控制的第一个也是到目前为止唯一一个州。他们的成功在于很好地控制了该党南部的分支现实主义党人：他们都是实用主义者，能够吸引生态意识强烈但是保守的城市选民。进一步说，这些“资产阶级”绿党人士将会和柏林的基督教民主联盟（CDU）和基督教社会联盟（CSU）很好地相处。

　　As if to reinforce this impression, the Greens have just elected Katrin Goring-Eckardt, a leader in the Lutheran church who is from the east and is by Green standards a conservative, as their co-candidate for chancellor. (The other candidate, Jurgen , was almost preordained, for the Greens always pair a woman and a man.) Ms Goring-Eckardt’s selection was a rebuff to Claudia Roth, a flamboyant leftist. The choice immediately renewed speculation about an olive branch to the CDU.

　　似乎是为了加强这种印象，绿党刚刚选举了卡特琳·格林-埃卡尔德担任总理的联合候选人。来自东部的卡特琳·格林-埃卡尔德是路德教会的领导人，按照绿党标准，她是一个保守派。（另外一个候选人尤尔根·特利汀，这几乎是内定的，因为绿党习惯于推选男女候选人各一名。）格林-埃卡尔德的入选是对虚张声势的左派克劳迪娅·罗斯的有力回击。这个选择很快就被认为是向基督教民主联盟（CDU）抛出的橄榄枝。

　　The relative decline of the traditional main parties, the CDU and SPD, in favour of smaller and younger ones, explains much of this party manoeuvring. Some of these may just be fads. The Pirates have done well in four state elections but now seem to be self-destructing, unable to form basic policy and being generally tedious. Yet, as German society becomes more individualistic, says Oskar Niedermayer, a professor at Berlin’s Free University, traditional party structures based on interest groups (Catholics, say, or trade unionists) lose appeal, leaving allegiances in flux.

　　传统的重要党派（如CDU和SPD）的相对衰落，规模较小和年轻的党派逐渐获得支持，这很大程度上解释了这个政党运作。有些政党只是一时潮流。海盗党（The Pirates）在4个州的选举中表现得相当出色，但是现在他们似乎已经要自我毁灭了，他们无法形成基本方针，而且非常单一。然而，随着德国社会越来越个人主义化，传统的建立在利益集团（天主教徒或工会主义者）之上的政党结构已经失去了吸引力，这使得民众的忠诚飘忽不定，柏林自由大学的教授奥斯卡·尼德迈尔说道。

　　At the same time and despite the campaign rhetoric, the differences between the main parties have, he thinks, got smaller, making any radical change of direction unlikely. That is especially true next year, since it seems increasingly likely that Mrs Merkel, with her safe pair of hands, will continue as chancellor. Only her coalition partner remains to be chosen.

　　同时，他认为，尽管在这个时候竞选高调四起，主要政党之间的区别却已经变得越来越小，他们也不可能给大选方向带来巨变。这个现象在明年格外如此，因为越来越多的现象表明拥有放心的帮手的默克尔将连任德国总理。而等待我们选择的只有她的联合政党的伙伴。