马来西亚总理将在本周对中国进行国事访问期间探索同中国发展更深层次的国防和经济合作。目前西方日益担忧北京方面试图使亚洲国家脱离华盛顿轨道。

　　Najib Razak’s trip to China follows a thaw in diplomatic relations between China and the Philippines, with President Rodrigo Duterte declaring his country’s “separation” from the US on a visit to Beijing last month.

　　纳吉布.拉扎克(Najib Razak)访问中国之前，中国和菲律宾之间的外交关系解冻，罗德里戈.杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)总统在上月访问北京期间宣告他的国家与美国“分离”。

　　Among Malaysia’s aims is the negotiation of a deal to purchase coastal patrol ships from China in what would be the first significant defence equipment contract between the two countries. If confirmed, the deal is likely to ruffle feathers among the US and its allies.

　　马来西亚方面的目标包括谈判达成从中国采购近海巡逻艇的协议，这将是两国之间的第一份重大防务装备合同。如果得到证实，这笔交易很可能引发美国及其盟国不快。

　　“This is in direct competition with US and Japanese attempts to sell this kind of defence technology,” said Alex Neill, an Asia-Pacific security fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in Singapore.

　　“这与美国和日本销售这种防务技术的尝试构成直接竞争，”新加坡国际战略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)亚太安全问题研究员亚历克斯.尼尔(Alex Neill)表示。

　　Although Malaysia is one of several claimants to disputed reefs and islands in the South China Sea, its response to China’s expansive claims over the area has generally been to avoid confrontation. Malaysian ministers have occasionally bristled over China’s claims, but Mr Najib has emphasised moderation.

　　虽然马来西亚是南中国海争议岛礁和岛屿的几个声索国之一，但该国对中国在该地区扩张性主权主张的回应总体上是回避对抗。马来西亚的部长级官员偶尔会抨击中国的主张，但纳吉布本人一直强调克制。

　　Military relations between Beijing and Kuala Lumpur have grown warmer recently, with the first joint military exercise conducted last year in the Strait of Malacca.

　　北京和吉隆坡之间的军事关系近期升温，去年两国在马六甲海峡进行了第一次联合军事演习。

　　Malaysia’s defence minister Hishammuddin Hussein, who is accompanying Mr Najib to China, announced the purchase of Chinese naval patrol craft in a Facebook post that was later removed.

　　陪同纳吉布访华的马来西亚国防部长希沙姆丁.侯赛因(Hishammuddin Hussein)，曾在Facebook上宣布采购中国海军巡逻艇，但这个帖子随后被删除。

　　Analysts are speaking about a “Duterte effect” across Asia as Beijing seeks to pry countries away from Washington and coax them into its orbit, using its economic weight in the region as leverage.

　　分析人士正在谈论席卷亚洲的“杜特尔特效应”，即北京方面试图把一个又一个国家撬离华盛顿的盟友圈子，并把中国在该地区的经济份量用作杠杆，推动这些国家进入中国的轨道。

　　“Now Malaysia seems like a wobbly domino,” said Euan Graham, director of the Lowy Institute in Sydney. “It lends itself to a pessimistic reading that there is a broader accommodation with China across Southeast Asia.”

　　“现在马来西亚看上去像是一块摇摇欲坠的多米诺骨牌，”悉尼洛伊国际政策研究所(Lowy Institute for International Policy)主任尤安.格雷厄姆(Euan Graham)表示。“这意味着令人悲观的解读是，东南亚国家在普遍迁就中国。”

　　Malaysia and China have overlapping claims in the South China Sea, but they have rarely come into conflict because Malaysia’s claims lie far in the south, away from China’s recent efforts to build islands out of rocks and coral reefs further north.

　　马来西亚和中国在南中国海的主权声索范围有重叠部分，但两国很少发生冲突，因为马来西亚声索的部分在南中国海的最南端，与中国近期建造人工岛的岛礁和珊瑚礁所在的北部相距较远。

　　However, Malaysia’s coast guard in March announced that about 100 Chinese fishing vessels had been detected encroaching in Malaysia’s waters in the disputed sea, a signal that China is likely to press its maritime claims.

　　然而，马来西亚海事执法局曾在今年3月宣布，约有100艘中国渔船被发现侵入争议海域的马来西亚水域，这个信号表明中国有可能重提其海事主张。

　　Neighbouring Singapore and Vietnam have both moved to strengthen defence ties with the US, with Singapore allowing the deployment of Poseidon spy planes and exploring training opportunities for its armed forces on the US Pacific territory of Guam.

　　邻近的新加坡和越南都加强了与美国的防务关系，新加坡允许美国部署“海神”(Poseidon)反潜巡逻机，并探索让新加坡军队在关岛（美国太平洋属地）进行培训的可能性。

　　Mr Duterte, in contrast, signed $13.5bn of deals and investments on a trip to China this month during which he announced “springtime” in relations between Beijing and Manila.

　　相比之下，杜特尔特在上月访华期间签署了135亿美元的协议和投资，其间他还宣告北京和马尼拉之间的关系进入“春天”。

　　Mustafa Izzuddin, fellow at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Malaysia was pursuing a “balanced” approach to China that combined protecting its interests in the South China Sea with strengthening economic relations.

　　新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院(ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute)研究员穆斯塔法.伊兹丁(Mustafa Izzuddin)表示，马来西亚正寻求对中国采取一种“平衡”姿态，在加强经济关系的同时保护其在南中国海的利益。

　　China is Malaysia’s biggest trading partner, while tourism from China has rebounded after a fall in the wake of the disappearance of the Beijing-bound Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 in 2014.

　　中国是马来西亚最大的贸易伙伴，而中国赴马来西亚旅游的人数在2014年飞往北京的马航MH370航班失踪后一度下降，但现已反弹。

　　At home, Mr Najib has been buffeted by claims that billions of dollars were looted from state investment fund 1MDB. The scandal has strained relations between Malaysia and the US, where federal prosecutors have moved to seize assets allegedly bought with misappropriated cash.

　　纳吉布在国内饱受非议，他被指从国家投资基金1MDB侵吞了巨额美元的资金。这一丑闻使马来西亚和美国之间的关系变得紧张，美国联邦检察官已采取行动，扣押据称用贪污资金购买的资产。

　　Mr Neill said: “If Najib finds himself in the crosshairs [of a US investigation], his natural inclination might be to lean towards China.”

　　新加坡国际战略研究所的尼尔表示：“如果纳吉布发现自己成了美国的调查对象，倒向中国可能是他的自然倾向。”