菲德尔.卡斯特罗(Fidel Castro)希望自己出生在一个比古巴更大的国家。

　　He knew Cuba’s economy would remain insignificant but he figured out how to make Cuba and himself noticed.

　　他知道古巴经济无论怎样发展都无足轻重，但他清楚如何让古巴和自己引起注意。

　　No one man has shaped a country in modern times like Fidel.

　　当今时代，没有一个人在塑造一个国家方面赶得上菲德尔。

　　When he said ‘this time the revolution is for real’, he meant it.

　　当他说这一次革命是当真的时，他真的是那个意思。

　　All that was in 1959.

　　这一切都发生在1959年。

　　Now Cuba has lost its most famous son.

　　如今，古巴失去了最出名的孩子。

　　The difference is that Fidel, his ideas and methods stayed around for more than 50 years.

　　差别在于，菲德尔、他的思想和道路延续了50多年。

　　Unlike Nelson Mandela, he never stepped down to give others a chance.

　　和纳尔逊.曼德拉(Nelson Mandela)不同，他从未卸下权力把机会留给别人。

　　And in the past decade his brother Raúl has been left to try to make Fidel’s system work in the 21st century.

　　过去10年，他的弟弟劳尔(Raúl)受命尝试让菲德尔留下的制度在21世纪继续运转。

　　For Cubans, Fidel was how they learnt the alphabet — F for Fidel, Y for Yanqui.

　　对古巴人来说，菲德尔是他们最先学会的字母——F代表菲德尔，Y代表美国佬(Yanqui)。

　　He was how they thought, how they saw the outside world and how they earned their living.

　　他们如何思考、如何观察外部世界、如何谋生，都要通过菲德尔。

　　His government made them dependent because they all worked for it.

　　他的政府让人们变得依赖，因为他们全都为政府工作。

　　It was Fidel or nothing.

　　要么拥护菲德尔，要么一无所有。

　　Socialism or Death.

　　要么选择社会主义，要么选择死亡。

　　He never suggested he would ask the people what they wanted.

　　他从未提出他会问古巴人民想要什么。

　　He told them and they believed.

　　他说什么，他们就得相信什么。

　　Now it is not clear what the ‘or’ is for Cuba.

　　现在不清楚古巴的另一种选择是什么。

　　Fidel proved a small country could stand up to its big neighbour and make a difference in spreading an ideology that offered hope to the poor.

　　卡斯特罗证明了，一个小国可以对抗强大的邻国，可以在传播给予穷人希望的意识形态方面有所作为。

　　The leaders attending his funeral will show that many still remember those days.

　　出席卡斯特罗葬礼的各国领导人将证明，许多人仍然记得那些日子。

　　His imagination was matched by his ruthlessness.

　　他的冷酷无情和想象力一样突出。

　　Just as he improved life for the poor and illiterate, he ruined the lives of many other Cubans who had something to lose.

　　在改善了穷人、文盲的生活水平之际，他也毁掉了其他许多有点资产的古巴人的生活。

　　Their choice was to accept repression or leave — many did.

　　他们只能选择接受压制或是离去——许多人选择离开。

　　And Fidel’s major problem was that he never engineered a national economy prosperous enough to provide for his big plans.

　　卡斯特罗的主要问题在于，他从未使古巴国民经济繁荣到足以实现他的宏大计划。

　　He used other countries’ money to fund his revolution, first the Soviet Union, and latterly Venezuela.

　　他利用别国的资金为自己的革命买单——首先是苏联，近年是委内瑞拉。

　　He used the US embargo to garner international sympathy.

　　他利用美国对古巴的贸易禁运博取国际同情。

　　So the question now about the ‘or’ is where does the money come from?

　　因此，现在关于古巴的另一种选择的问题是，未来钱从哪里来？

　　Cuba in 2016 offers little of the freshness and ambition that filled the air in 1959.

　　2016年的古巴早已没有了1959年那种弥漫全国的生机和雄心。

　　Though Cuba’s education and healthcare are still widely admired in the developing world, Fidel has bequeathed a country that is not projecting a clear vision.

　　虽然古巴的教育和医疗仍受到发展中世界的广泛敬佩，但卡斯特罗留下的是一个不能投射清晰愿景的国家。

　　Its main earners of foreign currency are tourism, medical services and remittances from families mainly in the US.

　　古巴获取外汇主要依靠旅游、医疗服务以及主要旅居美国的古巴人给家人的汇款。

　　That is not enough to fund socialist largesse.

　　这不足以支撑慷慨的社会主义事业。

　　And the only alternative seems to be a dismantling of some revolutionary controls, promoting foreign investment and the private sector to allow ordinary Cubans to get rich and build their lives.

　　唯一的出路似乎在于解除部分革命控制措施，推动外商投资和私营部门，允许普通古巴人致富，打造自己的美好人生。

　　Fidel always knew this would lessen their dependence on the government.

　　菲德尔当然知道，这样将减少他们对政府的依赖。

　　Raúl has said there will be no shock therapy in Cuba.

　　劳尔已表示，古巴不会采取休克疗法。

　　He knows that Fidel’s revolution would perhaps crumble under a scramble to make up for the years of economic decline.

　　他知道，急于在短时间内扭转多年来的经济衰败，可能让菲德尔的革命毁于一旦。

　　He has vowed to step down in 2018 but that may now be rethought.

　　他曾誓言在2018年卸任，但现在或许会重新考虑这一决定。

　　Without Fidel, Raúl could decide that the government’s shackles are holding Cuba back, and accepting new ideas would no longer be an embarrassment.

　　菲德尔去世后，劳尔可能得出结论：政府的枷锁正在阻碍古巴进步，接受新思想将不再令人尴尬。

　　But the one-party system with thousands of bureaucrats trained to stifle change is not fitted to promote a smooth transition to a new economic rule book.

　　但是，拥有成千上万依靠扼杀变革为生的官僚的一党制，不适合推进向着新经济模式的平稳过渡。

　　Cuba is not yet Castroless.

　　古巴尚未实现去卡斯特罗化。

　　Beyond Raúl there are sons, sons-in-law and a daughter, Mariela.

　　除了劳尔，还有他的儿子、女婿以及女儿玛丽拉(Mariela)。

　　For years to come there will always be the Fidel effect.

　　菲德尔的影响将在未来延续很多年。

　　Somehow Cuba has to emerge from all that and find new ideas that will not betray the revolution’s legacy.

　　古巴必须设法摆脱这一切，同时找到不会背叛革命遗产的新思想。

　　Fidel detested the Chinese model and Raúl has not accepted that it is good for Cuba and for ordinary Cubans to get rich.

　　菲德尔不喜欢中国模式，劳尔也并未认可中国模式对古巴及普通古巴人致富有好处。

　　But without Fidel, Cuba will be less likely to be given a free pass with other countries.

　　但菲德尔去世后，其他国家将不太可能再让古巴搭便车。

　　Cuba will lose its allure and will have to talk the international language of business.

　　古巴将失去吸引力，不得不学会用国际商业语言商谈。

　　Fidel has left a country trying to disentangle itself from its over-dependence on Venezuela and use the new US relationship to help revive its economy.

　　菲德尔留下的古巴，正尝试摆脱对委内瑞拉的过度依赖，并利用与美国新建立的关系帮助重振国内经济。

　　He opposed both of these options.

　　对于这两个选项，菲德尔生前都表示反对。

　　Now Donald Trump, despite the widespread popularity of the Obama measures, seems keen to undo the Obama effect and side with Fidel.

　　如今，虽然奥巴马政府的措施受到了广泛欢迎，但唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)似乎热衷于逆转奥巴马的政策，站在菲德尔一边。

　　Just when Cuba has a chance to move ahead a familiar scenario looms.

　　就在古巴有机会向前迈进之际，熟悉的一幕正在浮出水面。

　　Fidel would have been amused and perhaps rather pleased.

　　菲德尔对此应会感到好笑，或许还会相当高兴。