最新数据显示，在去年11月8日宣布的废钞里，只有5400亿卢比没有回收

　　NEW DELHI: Despite the Reserve Bank of India dismissing reports that suggested 97 per cent of the demonetised currency had returned to the bank's coffers by December 30, its own weekly figures on "currency in circulation" indicate that this number is correct.

　　新德里报道：尽管印度央行12月30日对关于97%的废钞已经被回收进入了央行金库的报告表示了不屑一顾，但是它自己每周提供的“流通货币”数据显示这个数字是正确的。

　　These figures, in fact, suggest that only Rs 54,000 crore of the notes banned on November 8 last year failed to make it back.

　　这些数字实际上表明，去年11月8日宣布的废钞里，只有5400亿卢比没有回收。

　　More worryingly, this figure has been arrived at on the assumption that no new notes were issued after December 19 -- a near impossibility. This could well open up the intriguing possibility that more banned notes may have returned than were said to be in circulation.

　　更加令人担心的是，这个数字建立在假设12月19日之后没有发行新钞的基础上——这基本上是不可能的。这也揭示一个有意思的可能性，也就是废钞实际上被回收的数量更多，而不是其所声称的正在流通中。

　　December 19 was the last time the RBI gave any information on how much of the demonetised currency was back. Even the tally on new notes circulated are not available.

　　12月19日是印度央行最后一次发布废钞回收数量信息的日子。已经投入流通的新钞到底有多少还是未能提供。

　　On Friday (January 13), in its weekly statistical supplement, the RBI said that the currency in circulation till January 6 was Rs 8.98 lakh crore.

　　在星期五（1月13日），在印度央行的每周统计附录里，记录了截至1月6日，正在流通中的货币为8.98万亿卢比。

　　This comprises new high-denomination currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 2000, smaller new and old currency notes of Rs 100, Rs 50, Rs 20 and Rs 10, plus the banned currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 which have not been returned.

　　此次发行的大额新钞包括500卢比和2000卢比，小额的新钞和旧钞包括100卢比，50卢比，20卢比和10卢比，已经被废弃的500卢比和1000卢比不再发行。

　　On January 5, the RBI had sought to question figures of 97 per cent return of banned currency put out by news agency Bloomberg. In a statement RBI said "figures would need to be reconciled with the physical cash balances to eliminate accounting errors/possible double counts etc," and till then "any estimate may not indicate the actual numbers."

　　印度央行于1月5日对由彭博资讯发布的97%废钞已被回收的数字表示了质疑。印度央行在一份声明中表示“数字需要和现金余额相吻合，以消除会计差错/可能的重复计算等等”，到那时，“任何估算都不会影响真实数字”。

　　Let us now calculate from RBI's figures how much of the banned notes are back.

　　现在让我们算一下根据印度央行的数据，到底多少废钞被回收了。

　　On November 8, according to reply given in Rajya Sabha on December 2 by the Minister of State for Finance, Arjun Ram Meghwal, there were 17,165 million pieces of Rs 500 notes and 6,858 million pieces of Rs 1,000 notes in circulation. That amounts to a total of Rs 15.44 lakh crore in value.

　　根据12月2日初级财政部部长Arjun Ram Meghwal向印度议会上院联邦院呈交的回复，在11月8日，有171.65亿张500卢比旧钞以及68.58亿张1000卢比旧钞正在流通中。这两个数字加起来的面值是15.44万亿卢比。

　　Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, had said that in value terms this was 86 per cent of the total currencies in circulation, which would amount to Rs 17.95 lakh crore (Rs 17.97 lakh crore on November 4, according to RBI).

　　财政部部长Arun Jaitley说过，全部货币的86%正在流通中，也就是17.95万亿卢比（11月4日印度央行的数字是17.97万亿卢比）。

　　From November 10 onwards, banned currency notes were deposited in the banks till December 30 and new currency notes started gradually being issued by the RBI in denomination ranging from Rs 10 upwards, including the new Rs 500 and Rs 2000 notes.

　　自从11月10日以来，直到12月30日，废钞都被存入银行，由印度央行签署的各种面值新钞开始发行，面额在10卢比以上，包括新的500卢比和2000卢比。

　　On November 18, according to RBI's statement on reserve money, there were 14.27 lakh crore in circulation, including Rs 2.51 lakh crore (14 per cent) of smaller denomination notes which had not been banned, new currency notes and banned currency notes. We do not know the exact break-up, as RBI or the government did not give it.

　　在11月18日，根据印度央行关于储备货币的声明，有14.27万亿卢比处于流通状态，包括2.51万亿卢比（14%）的没有被废除的小额钞票、新钞和废钞。由于印度央行和政府都没有提供数据，我们不知道各部分实际上有多少。

　　The first time the RBI spoke of a break-up of new notes was on December 7 during the monetary policy press conference. Deputy Governor R. Gandhi said that a total of Rs 4 lakh crore in new notes had been circulated till December 6, out of which 19.1 billion notes (which amounts to Rs 1.06 lakh crore) were in small denominations of up to Rs 100 and the rest (Rs 2.94 lakh crore) were in high denominations of Rs 500 and Rs 2,000.

　　印度央行关于新钞的第一次情况发声是在12月7日的货币政策记者招待会上。副行长R.Gandhi表示，截至12月6日，总额为4万亿卢比的新钞处于流通中，这些总数达191亿张的钞票中，总面值1.06万亿卢比的是100卢比及以下面额的小额钞票，其余2.94万亿卢比的是大额钞票，即500卢比和2000卢比。

　　The December 9 figures (the first after the RBI press conference figures) given in reserve money statement showed that Rs 9.81 lakh crore in value terms were in circulation. This includes Rs 2.51 lakh crore of small denominations already in circulation on November 8, Rs 1.06 lakh crore of new small denomination currencies and Rs 2.94 lakh crore in high denomination notes (Rs 500 and Rs 2,000) -- a total of Rs 6.51 crore.

　　储备货币报告中提到的12月9日的数据（是印度央行在记者招待会后的第一次数据）显示，9.81万亿面值的卢比处于流通之中。这包括了2.51万亿在11月8日已经处于流通中的小额钞票、1.06万亿的新小额钞票以及2.94万亿的大额钞票（500卢比和2000卢比）——总数就是6.51万亿。

　　That means that, on December 9, only Rs 3.29 lakh crore (Rs 9.61 minus Rs 6.51 crore) of the banned high denomination notes remained to be returned.

　　这意味着，在12月9日，只剩3.29万亿（9.61万亿减去6.51万亿）的大额废钞还没有被回收了。

　　In other words, a total of Rs 12.14 lakh crore of old notes out of Rs 15.44 lakh crore had been returned. This is similar to the figure for December 10 -- Rs 12.44 lakh crore -- given by the RBI's Gandhi to the media on December 13.

　　换句话说，在15.44万亿的废钞中，已经有12.14万亿被回收了。这和12月10日的数字——12.44万亿很接近，这个数字是印度央行的Gandhi在12月13日对媒体宣布的。

　　On December 19, the RBI again gave a figure of new notes circulated. It said 20.4 billion small denominations (up to Rs 100) and 2.2 billion of high denominations (Rs 500 and Rs 2,000) had been circulated. This is equivalent to a total of Rs 5.93 lakh crore.

　　在12月19日，印度央行又提供了流通中的新货币的数据。它说有204亿张小额钞票（100卢比及以下）以及22亿张大额钞票（500卢比和2000卢比）处于流通中。这俩的总数为5.93万亿卢比。

　　Now let's see how this measures up with the January 6 figures of currency in circulation of Rs 8.98 lakh crore.

　　现在让我们看看这是怎么达到1月6日的8.98万亿的数字的。

　　Even if we assume that no new notes were circulated after December 19 -- not really a possibility -- the new small and high denominations notes added to the existing small denomination notes (Rs 2.51 lakh crore + Rs 5.93 lakh crore) makes this amount go up to Rs 8.44 lakh crore.

　　即使我们假设在12月19日以后再也没有新钞进入流通——这基本不可能——小额和大额的钞票总数再加上已经存在的小额钞票（2.51万亿加上5.93万亿），这个数字就变成了8.44万亿。

　　In other words, only Rs 54,000 crore of banned notes remained to be returned (Rs 8.98 lakh crore minus Rs 8.44 lakh crore). Hence, according to RBI's figures, Rs 14.90 lakh crore or 96.5 per cent of the original amount is back.

　　换句话说，只有5400亿卢比的废钞还没有回收（8.98万亿减去8.44万亿）。那么，根据印度央行的数据，有14.9万亿，也就是96.5%的废钞已经被回收了。

　　But the figures may go haywire if substantial new currency has been added since December 19 -- a distinct possibility.

　　但是如果12月19日以来，有大量的新钞被投入流通，那么这个数据就要出问题了（译者注：这样有可能导致实际回收的货币要比之前宣布的废钞总量还要多-_-|||）。——但是这是非常有可能的。

　　Is that the reason why RBI is still not announcing the final count?

　　这是不是印度央行迟迟不公布最终数据的原因呢？