Where is the American Economy going?（在线收听）

And the economy has showed some signs it was on the ¹⁾mend. New ²⁾claims for ³⁾unemployment benefits dropped ⁴⁾unexpectedly last week although they do remain at high levels, and ⁵⁾analysts expect that tens of thousands of ⁶⁾layoffs announced recently will ⁷⁾boost their numbers in the weeks ahead. Consumers are starting to spend again but very ⁸⁾selectively. ⁹⁾Overall ¹⁰⁾retail sales did fall 2.4 percent in September which was the largest drop in a ¹¹⁾decade. The Commerce Department has been tracking those numbers and auto sales surprised everyone racing ahead early this month. US car companies benefited the most as they ¹²⁾rolled out sweeping no-interest financing ¹³⁾offers. But despite near record auto sales, Ford, the nation’s number two auto maker decided to cut its dividend in half to ¹⁴⁾conserve cash due to the uncertain environment. It was Ford’s first ¹⁵⁾dividend ¹⁶⁾cut since the Gulf War and ¹⁷⁾recession a decade ago.

     Well the cut boosted Ford’s stock, but its shares did not rise alone. The stock markets continued their three-week recovery with the ¹⁸⁾NASDAQ and some other major market ¹⁹⁾indices ²⁰⁾rebounding above pre-attack levels near the end of the week. Did the markets ²¹⁾overreact? Should stocks be heading higher? Joining us with some answers is ²²⁾veteran money manager and economist Hugh Johnson Chief Investment officer at First Albany.

Journalist: Hugh, nice to see you.

Hugh: Nice to be with you, Conswello.

Journalist: You first of all in ²³⁾hindsight, did the markets overreact to the attacks on September 11?

Hugh: I think, ²⁴⁾to some extent, it really was an overreaction. We certainly seemed to reach an emotional extreme. The market became ²⁵⁾extraordinarily ²⁶⁾undervalued as I did the ²⁷⁾arithmetic, as much as almost 25 percent. And we saw lots of very heavy ²⁸⁾volume a very sharp ²⁹⁾decline in stock prices during that week of September 7, so to some extent, there was certainly some not only reaction, but I think overreaction. The market became very, very undervalued.

Journalist: So why do you think the market appears to be on the comeback ³⁰⁾trail right now?

Hugh: Well I think the most important thing to keep in mind is remember is that you know what counts is not so much third quarter earnings and certainly not the economic numbers like the retail sales numbers for the month of September. What really counts is not so much where we’ve been but where we’re going. What counts is what’s going to happen in the first and second quarters of next year. And frankly, with all of that ³¹⁾stimulus in the ³²⁾pipeline in the form of, you know, ³³⁾monetary ease, lower interest rates, ³⁴⁾fiscal stimulus from Washington in the form of greater spending as well as tax cuts. The case for a recovery in the first part of next year, the recovery in the economy and earnings is extraordinarily strong, so investors are starting to buy stocks in anticipation of a recovery in the first two quarters of next year.CE

11、美国经济去向何方？

美国经济已显示出复苏迹象。上周申领失业救济金的新个案出乎意料地减少，不过数字依然偏高，分析家预测近期内宣布进行的大幅度裁员会在未来几周内让该数字上升。人们重新开始选择性地进行消费。九月总零售额下降2.4个百分点，那是十年来的最大跌幅。商务部一直在对相关数字进行跟踪，本月初汽车销量不跌反升，令人意外。美国汽车公司受惠最大，他们推出免息供车的财政计划。尽管最近销售数字可喜，可全国第二大的汽车制造商福特公司依然要派减一半股息，以保留资金度过难关。这是福特自从海湾战争和十年前经济衰退后首次派减股息。

股息的派减推动福特的股价上升，而且连同其他股份一起上升。股市连续第三周向上，近周末时纳斯达克和其他一些重要指数回弹至战前水平。股市是否反应过激？股价会否继续向上？为此我们特请来资深基金经理兼经济学家、飞斯特·阿伯尼的首席投资主任——休·约翰逊。

记者：休，很高兴见到你。

休：很高兴见到你，康斯威洛。

记者：首先请你做个后来解释，股市是否对9·11事件反应过激了？

休∶我认为在某种程度上确实是反应过激了。我们确实像是走情感极限。我计算过，大市格外低水，将近25%。我们在9月7日那周还看到有多种股份的价格急挫，所以我说在某种程度上这已超过一般的反应，而是反应过激了。大市是严重地低水。

记者：那么何以你见得市场现在会有复苏的迹象呢？

休：我认为最要紧、最要牢牢记住的是第三季度的赢利并不重要，9月份的零售等的经济数据也不重要。真正重要的不是一直来怎么样，而是将来的走势。明年第一、二季度的走势才是重要的。坦白说，现在刺激因素已经齐备，比如银根宽松、低利率，官方财政刺激方面包括华府增多费用和减税。明年第一季度复苏在望，经济与赢利起来的势头强劲，因此投资者都看好明年头两季的表现并开始买进股票。CE