美国国家公共电台 NPR 5 Laws Of Political Gravity In Midterms. Do They Still Apply In The Age Of Trump?（在线收听）

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

We're in Dallas, Texas, today to mark the first primary in the country ahead of the fall midterm elections. Democrats are feeling confident. And if you want to know how seriously Republicans are taking that threat, Governor Greg Abbott said it pretty plainly recently. In an email to supporters a few days ago, he said, the early voting numbers for Democrats should, quote, "shock every conservative to their core." And it's true. Democrats are fired up.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: Grab some food, and let's go knock on some doors.

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MARTIN: That was a campaign organizer at the headquarters for Laura Moser. She is running in the Democratic primary for the Texas 7th. The district re-elected Republican John Culberson in 2016, but it also went for Clinton over Trump, so Democrats hope they can flip it. Roxanne Cox (ph) is a campaign volunteer, and she says President Trump's election was a lesson to all the supporters gathered there.

ROXANNE COX: I didn't see it coming that - you know, that Trump was going to get supported. And so I feel like we were a little complacent in what we thought was going to happen. And I think now we've become incredibly active.

MARTIN: Across town, some Republicans were thinking the same thing. Josh Redelman (ph) was making calls for Kevin Roberts, who's running for Congress in the 2nd District.

JOSH REDELMAN: Don't get complacent. Don't think this is a lock. Yes, this is a strong Republican state, but we're not crimson red anymore. So it's just one of those things. Like, be vigilant.

MARTIN: So if there's any chance for the Republicans to generate that kind of enthusiasm, it might be on the back of President Trump. NPR's national political correspondent Mara Liasson reports.

MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Historically, the party with the White House loses, on average, dozens of House seats in a midterm election. Donald Trump knows this.

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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: You win the presidency, and you take it easy. And then they come and surprise you in the midterms. They call them the midterms.

LIASSON: One of them who studies the midterms is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report. She starts each election cycle with a list of things she thinks could determine the outcome.

AMY WALTER: The president's overall approval rating, whether he's above or below 50 percent, and then the intensity factor - how energized is one party over the other? - and then the just overall mood of the country - are we in a recession? Are we in war?

LIASSON: This year, some of those factors lean to the Democrats. Others advantage the GOP. But some of them aren't working the way they have in the past. For instance, the president's approval rating has usually been tied to voters' views about the economy. Right now the economy's doing pretty well, and more people say they like the GOP tax cuts. So why isn't Donald Trump more popular? Amy Walter has a theory.

WALTER: Think about suburban voters for a second who have been very sour on this president. These are the kinds of people who do have 401(k) accounts, who should expect to see, if they are in a certain middle-class income, a little bit of money back from the tax cuts. You're not seeing that translate to the president. Yeah, we feel good about the economy, but we don't really feel good about you.

LIASSON: The other big factor is turnout - who will actually come out to vote? That's hard to predict. In 2016, Donald Trump got more white, working-class voters to the polls than analysts thought he would. Will that happen again this year? All we know, says demographer William Frey, is who has turned out in past midterm elections.

WILLIAM FREY: The people who turn out the most tend to be older people, tend to be whiter people, tend to be people who are married and tend to be people who are well-educated. Most of them tend to favor the Republicans.

LIASSON: But there's one problem for Republicans in that otherwise favorable profile - people who are well-educated. Remember in the campaign when Trump said, I love the poorly educated? Well, they loved him back. College graduates generally do not. This year, Trump needs more of his white, non-college-educated supporters to turn out, just like they did when he defied the odds in 2016. Amy Walter thinks that will be hard.

WALTER: Coalitions that are built in presidential elections don't necessarily translate into midterm elections. Just ask Democrats who were counting on the Obama coalition of 2008 to come out in 2010. They didn't.

LIASSON: But Trump is trying in every way he can to keep his base voters energized.

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TRUMP: Don't be complacent, OK? Don't be complacent because if they get in, they will repeal your tax cuts. They will put judges in that you wouldn't believe. They'll take away your Second Amendment, which we will never allow to happen. They'll take away your Second Amendment.

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LIASSON: Speaking of the Second Amendment, the new debate about gun control in the wake of the Parkland, Fla., school shooting is a wild card that could help Democrats this year. Another wild card is the president's threatened trade war. He says trade wars are good and easy to win. But Republicans worry Trump's tariffs could undermine the stock market and economic growth, two factors they're counting on to help them. And here's another thing to consider. More than two-thirds of Republicans in the House of Representatives have never run in a midterm election where their party had the White House. They've got lots of advantages, more money than the Democrats, favorably drawn congressional districts, but they no longer have the luxury of being the opposition party. Amy Walter...

WALTER: And now they're really the incumbents because they control everything - the Senate, the House and the White House, of course. So while their congressional districts may have been drawn to protect that Republican incumbent, they've never been tested by the kinds of headwinds that they're going to be tested by in 2018.

LIASSON: So which is more powerful, a good economy, more campaign money and the mighty fortress of redistricting, or increased enthusiasm, higher turnout and a huge crop of new Democratic candidates? We'll find out in about eight months. Mara Liasson, NPR News, Washington.

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