Buttonwood: Bumper buy-backs 梧桐树专栏：丰厚的回购

　　A new paper argue that to forecast share returns, buy-backs as well as dividends must be counted. 一项新研究表明，想要预测股票收益，必须计算回购和股息。

　　What is the point of buying shares? 买股票的精髓是什么？

　　Ultimately investors must hope that the cash they receive from the company will offer an attractive long-term return. 最终投资者必须期望他们从企业获得的现金能够提供有吸引力的长期回报。

　　Over the long run, reinvested dividends rather than capital gains have comprised the vast bulk of returns. 从长期来看，相对于资本收益，股息再投资可以带来大量的回报。

　　But since the 1980s American firms have increasingly used share buy-backs, which have tax advantages for some investors. 但是二十世纪八十年代以来，美国企业却越来越多地使用股票回购，因为对于一些投资者来说股票回购有着税收优势。

　　Buy-backs have been higher than dividend payments in eight of the past ten years. 在过去十年中，有八年回购一直高于股息支付。

　　In a buy-back, investors receive cash for a proportion of their holdings. 在回购中，投资者根据自己的持股比例获得现金收益。

　　A new paper in the Financial Analysts Journal argues that adding this to dividend receipts to calculate a total payout yield  《金融分析师期刊》的一篇新论文认为，将股票回购加到股息单据上来计算总股利收益率，

　　gives a better estimate of future returns than the dividend yield alone. 相比于单独地估算股息率，能够更好的估算出未来收益。

　　It also reveals a much better match between stockmarket performance and overall economic growth. 这也揭示了股市表现与整体经济增长之间更好的匹配关系。

　　Using data going back to 1871, the authors find that the average dividend yield has been 4.5% and the total payout yield 4.89%. 把数据追溯到1871年，研究者发现当时的平均股息率为4.5%，总股利收益率为4.89%。

　　Since 1970 the dividend yield has dropped to 3.03%, but the total payout yield has averaged 4.26%. 从1970年以来，股息率已经跌到3.03%，但是总股利收益率平均为4.26%。

　　Looked at on that basis, the overall income return from shares has been not that far below historical levels. 从这个基础来看，整体股票收益还未远低于历史水平。

　　The return from shares can be broken down into three components: the initial income yield; growth in the income stream; and any change in valuation. 股票收益可以被分解成三个组成部分：初始收益、收益的增长和估值的变化。

　　(If shares become more expensive, the yield will fall. （股价越高，初始收益率就会越低。

　　Say the dividend is $6 and the share price is $100, the initial yield will be 6%. 也就是说股息是6美元，股价为100美元，初始收益率就是6%。

　　If the shares rise to $120, the yield will fall to 5% but the investors will have made a capital gain.) 如果股价上升到120美元，初始收益率就会跌到5%，但投资者这时已经获得资本收益了。）

　　Over the long run, changes in valuation levels do not make much difference to the return. 长期来看，估值水平的变动不会对收益产生太大的影响。

　　What has driven stockmarket returns in recent decades is that total payouts have grown faster than before. 最近几十年，推动股市收益的是总股息远超以往的飞速增长。

　　The growth rate since 1871 has been 2.05%; since 1970, it has been 3.44%. 到1871以来，总股息增长率已经为2.05%，1970年以来，增长率达3.44%。

　　That is probably because of strong corporate profits, which recently hit a post-1945 high as a proportion of America's GDP. 这可能是企业强劲的利润导致的，并且最近在美国GDP所占比例中达到1945年后的新高。