经济学人:贸易战争:谁是最后的赢家(1)（打印版）

　　When Donald Trump tweeted on August 5th that tariffs were working "big time", American media sprang into action to test the claim. 8月5日，唐纳德·特朗普在推特上说，关税“颇有成效”，美国媒体蓄势待发，他们想要检验这种说法。

　　In China, editors were more circumspect. No major Chinese-language newspaper reported his tweets. 中国媒体则更加慎重。中国主流媒体并没有对特朗普的这条推文进行报道。

　　One of his claims—that China's stock market has fallen 27% in the past four months—was an exaggeration. 其中一条内容—中国股票市场在过去四个月跌了27%—夸大了事实。

　　But why would any self-respecting propagandist in Beijing dwell on that? 但是为什么没有一家中国主流媒体报道过这件事呢？

　　Chinese stocks have indeed fallen sharply, which officials do not wish to emphasise. 中国股票市场确实急剧下跌，官方并不想强调这一点。

　　And this is just one of a series of awkward facts for China as its trade war with America deepens. 中国与美国贸易战争深化，而这只不过是中国所面临的一系列尴尬事实中的一个。

　　The yuan is down 8% against the dollar since April, and near its weakest in more than a year. 自四月以来，人民币兑美元汇率下跌8%，在一年多的时间内，趋近最疲软的时刻。

　　A shrinking trade surplus produced a current-account deficit in the first half of 2018, China's first such gap in at least two decades. 2018年上半年，贸易顺差缩水导致收支往来帐户赤字，这是中国在至少20年内首次出现这样的差距。

　　More broadly, China's growth is slowing at a time when America's economy is expanding at its fastest pace since 2014. 更广泛地讲，自2014年起，美国经济开始以最快的速度进行扩张，而那时中国经济发展正在放慢脚步。

　　No wonder Mr. Trump feels that he is on the right path, and that Chinese investors are jittery. 难怪特朗普会觉得他正步入正轨，而中国投资者则紧张不安。

　　Making matters worse for China is a whiplash effect. 对中国而言，更糟糕的是一种鞭梢效应。

　　Until recently officials and executives believed their own declarations of technological prowess. 直到最近，官方和执行者们仍相信他们科技能力的声明。

　　Privately, advisers were confident that Mr. Trump could be placated with promises to ramp up imports from America. 在私下里，顾问们相信可以用增加美国进口的承诺来安抚特朗普。

　　Now both views look wanting. An agreement for China to buy more American natural gas and soya beans collapsed in June. 现在这两种观点似乎都不够准确。今年6月，中国从美国购买更多天然气和大豆的协议破裂。

　　Chinese officials are keenly aware of vulnerabilities; had America maintained its sanctions on sales of semiconductors to ZTE, 中国官方敏锐地意识到其弱点；让美国维持对ZTE半导体销售的制裁，

　　the Chinese telecoms giant might well have gone out of business. Those with a conspiratorial mindset see things in a darker light. 这家中国电信巨头很有可能因此停业。那些满脑子阴谋论的人总是以更加黑暗的眼光看事情。

　　"The Americans don't want a deal. They want to screw us," says a fund manager. “美国人不想要协议。他们想打压我们，”一位基金经理说道。

经济学人:贸易战争:谁是最后的赢家(1)（在线收听）