经济学人:贸易战争:谁是最后的赢家(3)（打印版）

　　Officials could opt to abandon their tightening stance in order to counteract the trade turmoil. But that might erase the gains from the deleveraging. 官方可以选择放弃他们紧缩的立场以求缓和贸易混乱。但这么做会抹去来自于减债的利益。

　　This explains their restraint so far. At a meeting of the Politburo on July 31st, 这也解释了他们到目前为止所表现出的克制。7月31日，在一场会议上，

　　China's leaders noted that it was a priority to support growth amid the "clear change" in the external environment, 中国领导者注意到，在外部环境的“清晰变化”中支持增长才是首要任务，

　　but also pledged to press on with their efforts to control debt. Investors who had hoped for more easing were disappointed. 但是他们也承诺将加紧控制债务。寄希望于宽松政策的投资者们要失望了。

　　So there is cause for concern about China's growth outlook. But markets may be unduly pessimistic. 因此，对中国经济增长前景的担忧是有原因的。但是市场或许过度悲观了。

　　One conclusion from the past few weeks is that policymakers now accept that the trade war is real, and are starting to cushion the economy. 从过去几周得出的结论是现在决策者承认贸易战是真实存在的，并且他们正在开始缓和经济的冲击。

　　The boost to exports from the falling yuan, down about 6% on a trade-weighted basis since mid-June, 人民币贬值促进了出口（自6月中旬，在贸易加权基础上下降6%）

　　should be "roughly proportionate" to the blow from the first $50bn of American tariffs and some of the next $200bn, 这应该与美国第一次的500亿商品关税以及接下来的2000美元商品关税勉强成比，

　　says Andrew Tilton, the chief Asia economist at Goldman Sachs. 高盛投资公司，亚洲首席经济学家安德鲁·提顿说道。

　　At the margins, he adds, China is shifting to a more active fiscal policy. 他还说，中国正在转向更加积极的财政政策。

　　Officials have made it easier for cities to get funding for infrastructure projects. 由于官方的政策，各城市可以更加容易地获得基础设施项目资金。

　　One government adviser says there is discussion of a bigger stimulus, likely to be focused on promoting consumption rather than investment. 一位政府顾问表示他们对更大规模的经济刺激计划进行了讨论，他们可能会专注于促进消费而非投资。

　　The economic backdrop to the trade war could also change over the next year. 在未来一年中，贸易战争的经济背景可能也会改变。

　　As China tiptoes towards easing, its credit growth should pick up. 中国小心翼翼寻求宽松政策，其债务增长应该有所改善。

　　Meanwhile, America may be near the top of its growth cycle, with gains from last year's tax cut set to dissipate. 与此同时，美国或许靠近其生长周期的巅峰，其去年减税收益将被浪费。

　　Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics, a research firm, says the divergence in their stock markets might reflect overconfidence in America 研究公司牛津经济研究院的高路易表示，股票市场的分歧或许反映出了美国的过度自信

　　and an evaporation of confidence in China. "Both reactions seem exaggerated," he says. 和中国的信心蒸发。“两种反应都被夸大了，”他说。

　　With no resolution to the trade war in sight, there will be time enough to test this proposition. 由于没有应对贸易战争的最终方案，要测试这个命题，我们有的是时间。

经济学人:贸易战争:谁是最后的赢家(3)（在线收听）