2019年经济学人 2018年股票市场的喜与悲 (1)（在线收听）

One day in 1985 P. J. O'Rourke, an American humourist, invited a few friends to his home to take ecstasy. He wrote about the experience for Rolling Stone.

1985年的某天美国幽默家奥罗克邀请了几位朋友去他家嗑药。他将此次经历写下来交给了滚石乐队。

For a veteran of the Age of Aquarius, the side-effects of recreational drugs—

对于和平时代的一名老兵而言，软性毒品的副作用—

the frequent toilet trips; the grimy feeling on the skin; the fitful sleep later on—were familiar. It was all rather underwhelming.

尿频；感觉身上脏兮兮的；然后时睡时醒—大同小异。都相当无趣。

"Drugs are a one-man birthday party," he explained. "You don't get any presents you didn't bring."

“毒品是只有一个人参加的生日派对，”他解释道。“你不带就没有礼物。”

Those who make a living navigating financial markets might understandably be reaching for the happy pills, or at least a couple of painkillers.

以操纵金融市场为生的那些人或许会拿一些逍遥丸，或者至少是要两三片止疼药。

For them, 2018 was a rotten year. Stockmarket losses were spread widely across the globe.

对他们来说，2018年是糟糕的一年。股票市场损失蔓延全球。

The total return—capital gains or losses plus dividends—from the S&P 500 index of leading American shares was negative for the first time in a decade.

根据标准普尔500指数，今年美国股市总收益（资本收益或损失加上股息）首次呈负数。

Other markets were worse, notably China's, where the Shanghai index fell by a quarter. Safe assets eclipsed risky assets.

其他市场更糟糕，尤其是中国股市，上证指数下跌四分之一。安全性资产使风险资产黯然失色。

Treasury bonds outperformed stocks. There were worse places to be than in gold, and few better than in cash.

国库债券表现优于股票。还有比黄金表现糟糕的市场，很少有市场的表现优于现金。

The source of much of the red ink is concern about the world economy.

赤字的源头关乎世界经济。

China's economy is weaker; there are growing fears of a recession in America this year.

中国经济更加疲弱；今年对美国衰退的恐惧日益增长。

Yet the truly far-sighted investor can see through such ups and downs.

但真正有远见的投资者可以识破这些起起伏伏。

Indeed for people with a long-term saving goal, such as retirement or children's college fees, there is an upside to falling stock prices.

确实，对于那些有长期储蓄目标（如退休或孩子的大学学费）的人来说，股票下跌有一个优势。

Over the business cycle, stockmarket returns are also like Mr O'Rourke's one-person birthday party.

在商业周期中，股市收益也像是奥罗克先生一个人的生日聚会。

Bad returns today imply better returns in the future and vice versa.

今天的不良收益暗示着未来更好的回报，反之亦然。

For those looking to build their stockholdings through recessions and recoveries, falling asset prices are good news.

对于那些指望通过经济衰退和恢复持股的人来说，资产价格下跌是个好消息。

That is not everyone. If your job is to manage other people's money, you have probably just had a terrible 12 months.

这并不适合每一个人。如果你的工作是管理别人的钱，那么这12个月你或许过得很煎熬。

It is not just that fund-management fees are typically a fixed proportion of asset values and so lower prices mean lower earnings (though there is that).

不仅仅是因为资金管理费用占资产价值的固定比例，因此更低的价格意味着更低的收入（虽然确实如此）。

There is also the sense of futility. Such professionals give a lot of thought to asset allocation—

还有一种无助的感觉。这些专业人员给出了很多关于资产配置建议—

how much should go into stocks or bonds; how much in America or elsewhere.

买多少股票或债券；在美国或其他地方投多少。

For all that effort, vanishingly few allocations did better than your grandmother's bank account.

付出所有努力之后，你的大部分配置款还没有你祖母的银行存款多。