2019年经济学人 2018年股票市场的喜与悲 (2)（在线收听）

Others will have suffered, too. The declines in stocks imply a smaller pension pot for those about to retire.

其他人也将遭遇不幸。股票的衰退暗示着给即将退休者准备的养老金存罐变得更小。

Wherever investment income is needed to meet current expenses, belts must be tightened.

若需要用投资收益满足日常费用，就必须勒紧裤腰带。

Yet those who are still building up their wealth will benefit from lower asset prices. Take housing, for instance.

但那些仍在累积财富的人将从更低的资产价格中获益。以住房为例。

A fall in house prices hurts those who are "long" property, those who own more housing than they will personally need over their lifetime.

房价下跌会对那些拥有多套住房的“长”房屋所有者造成伤害。

Call such people "landlords". But it also helps those people—call them "tenants"—who hope either to buy a property or to trade up to a bigger one in future.

这些人被称为“房东”。但房价下跌也帮助那些—称他们为“房客”—想要买房或是想要换一个更大房子的人。

Falling house prices make it easier for them to reach their goal.

房价下跌让他们的目标更容易实现。

A similar logic applies to stockmarkets. Just as a home is a stream of future housing services, a stock is a stream of future dividends.

类似逻辑也适用于股票市场。就像房子是一串未来住房服务一样，股票也是一串未来股息。

Lower stock prices may be bad for stockmarket "landlords", but they are good for stockmarket "tenants".

更低的股票价格或许对股市“房东”不是件好事，但是对股市“房客”来说却是件好事。

Warren Buffett has written that those who plan to be net buyers of stocks in the future should rejoice when stocks fall.

沃伦·巴菲特曾写到，在股票下跌的时候，那些计划成为未来股票净购买者的人应该庆祝。

An investor of this kind who cheers rising stock prices is like "a commuter who rejoices after the price of gas increases, simply because his tank contains a day's supply".

庆祝股价上涨的这类投资者就像是“一位在油气价格上涨后庆祝的通勤者一样，因为他的气箱里装满了一天的供应量”。

Fears of recession are not the only reason for falling stock prices.

对衰退的恐惧不是股价下跌的唯一原因。

Part of the recent decline is down to prospects, such as Brexit or growing protectionism, that will do permanent damage to the global economy,

近期部分下跌是由于对前景的瞻望，比如脱欧或不断增长的保护主义，这将对全球经济、

and thus to company profits and stockmarket returns. Yet even in this regard there is something to be said for a correction in asset prices.

公司利润以及股市收益造成永久的损伤。但即便在这点上，对资产价格进行修正也是有好处的。

When excessive optimism is built into asset prices, wasteful investment often follows.

当对资产价格过于乐观时，紧随其后的通常是投资浪费。

Think of the homes built in out-of-the-way places in America, Spain and Ireland to satisfy speculative demand during the global housing boom of the noughties.

想想在21世纪的头10年中，全球房屋市场的繁荣，美国、西班牙和爱尔兰为了满足投机需求而在偏远地区建造的那些房屋。

Investors, like those who use ecstasy or alcohol, face a choice. They can feel good now or later.

投资者，比如那些服用摇头丸或酒精的人，面临一项选择。他们可以现在或晚些时候high起来。

Genuinely long-term investors will always choose later.

长期投资者总会选择后者。

They want to buy stocks as cheaply as possible and when they get a higher premium for owning risky assets.

他们想要购买尽可能便宜的股票，并且是在他们为拥有风险资产而获得更高度保险费之时。

Recessions are an inevitable part of the risks investors face. As with hangovers, they feel interminable. But eventually they clear.

衰退是投资者所面临的风险中不可避免的一部分。和宿醉一样，感觉没完没了，但终将会变得清晰。