2019年经济学人 全球化放缓(1)（在线收听）

Slowbalisation

全球化速度减缓

A new pattern of world commerce is becoming clearer—as are its costs

一种新的世界商业模式正变得越来越清晰——其成本也是如此

When America took a protectionist turn two years ago, it provoked dark warnings about the miseries of the 1930s. Today those ominous predictions look misplaced. Yes, China is slowing. And, yes, Western firms exposed to China, such as Apple, have been clobbered. But in 2018 global growth was decent, unemployment fell and profits rose. In November President Donald Trump signed a trade pact with Mexico and Canada. If talks over the next month lead to a deal with Xi Jinping, relieved markets will conclude that the trade war is about political theatre and squeezing a few concessions from China, not detonating global commerce.

两年前，美国转向贸易保护主义引发20世纪30年代悲剧的黑暗警告。如今这些不祥的预言似乎放错了地方。没错，中国正在放缓。且与中国联系密切的西方公司，如苹果公司，确实遭到痛击。但2018年全球增速尚可，失业率下降，利润上升。11月，唐纳德·特朗普总统同墨西哥和加拿大签署了一份贸易协定。如果下个月的谈判能和习近平主席达成协议，如释重负的市场将得出这样的结论:贸易战是一场政治戏剧，是为了迫使中国做出一些让步，而不是引爆全球商业。

Such complacency is mistaken. Today’s trade tensions are compounding a shift that has been under way since the financial crisis in 2008-09. As we explain, cross-border investment, trade, bank loans and supply chains have all been shrinking or stagnating relative to world GDP. Globalisation has given way to a new era of sluggishness. Adapting a term coined by a Dutch writer, we call it “slowbalisation”.

这种自满是错误的。如今的贸易紧张加剧了自2008-09年金融危机以来一直在发生的一种转变。正如我们所解释的，相对于世界GDP，跨境投资、贸易、银行贷款和供应链都在萎缩或停滞。全球化俨然已经让位给一个萧条的新时代。借用一位荷兰作家创造的术语，我们称之为“全球化减缓”。

The golden age of globalisation, in 1990-2010, was something to behold. Commerce soared as the cost of shifting goods in ships and planes fell, phone calls got cheaper, tariffs were cut and the financial system liberalised. International activity went gangbusters, as firms set up around the world, investors roamed and consumers shopped in supermarkets with enough choice to impress Phileas Fogg.

全球化1990年至2010年的黄金时代值得期待。随着船舶和飞机运输成本的下降、通话成本的降低、关税的降低以及金融体系的自由化，商业活动大幅增长。国际活动大获成功，随着公司在世界各地纷纷成立，投资者遍布各地，在超市购物的消费者选择多种多样，这些给斐利亚·福克留下了深刻的印象。