2019年经济学人 全球化放缓(4)（在线收听）

Yet slowbalisation has two big disadvantages. First, it creates new difficulties. In 1990-2010 most emerging countries were able to close some of the gap with developed ones. Now more will struggle to trade their way to riches. And there is a tension between a more regional trading pattern and a global financial system in which Wall Street and the Federal Reserve set the pulse for markets everywhere. Most countries’ interest rates will still be affected by America’s even as their trade patterns become less linked to it, leading to financial turbulence. The Fed is less likely to rescue foreigners by acting as a global lender of last resort, as it did a decade ago.

但全球化放缓有两大弊端。第一，全球化放缓产生新的难题。1990年至2010年，大多数新兴国家能够缩小与发达国家之间的一些差距。现在，更多新兴国家通过贸易致富将举步维艰。此外，区域性贸易模式与全球金融体系之间关系紧张，而华尔街和美联储设定了世界各地市场的脉搏。即使大多数国家贸易模式与美国联系越来越少，其利率还是会受到美国利率的影响，从而导致金融动荡。美联储不太可能像10年前那样，通过充当全球最后贷款人来拯救其他国家。

Second, slowbalisation will not fix the problems that globalisation created. Automation means there will be no renaissance of blue-collar jobs in the West. Firms will hire unskilled workers in the cheapest places in each region. Climate change, migration and tax-dodging will be even harder to solve without global co-operation. And far from moderating and containing China, slowbalisation will help it secure regional hegemony yet faster.

第二，全球化变缓不会解决全球化制造的问题。自动化意味着西方蓝领工作岗位不会复兴。企业将在每个地区最便宜的地方雇佣非技术工人。如果没有全球合作，气候变化、移民和逃税问题将更难解决。全球化放缓不会阻碍中国发展，反而会帮助中国更快地在区域发展。

Globalisation made the world a better place for almost everyone. But too little was done to mitigate its costs. The integrated world’s neglected problems have now grown in the eyes of the public to the point where the benefits of the global order are easily forgotten. Yet the solution on offer is not really a fix at all. Slowbalisation will be meaner and less stable than its predecessor. In the end it will only feed the discontent.

全球化让世界变得更美好。但不利于降低成本。在公众的眼中，一体化世界中被忽视的问题现在已经增长到很容易忘记全球秩序的好处的地步。然而，提供的解决方案并不是真正的解决方案。全球化放缓将比上一阶段更为艰难，也不那么稳定。最终只会助长不满情绪。