2019年经济学人 伊朗伊斯兰革命四十年(2)（在线收听）

America has rarely been able to think clearly about Iran; not least because the regime’s followers held 52 of its citizens hostage for 444 days after seizing the American embassy in Tehran in 1979. But if Iran has recently extended its power it is in large part because of the mess caused by America’s invasion of Iraq in 2003.

美国很少能清晰考虑伊朗问题；尤其是因为1979年，伊朗政权的追随者占领了美国驻德黑兰大使馆，并将52名美国公民作为人质扣押了444天。但是如果伊朗近期扩大其权力，很大程度上是因为2003年美国入侵伊拉克所造成的混乱。

Iran is confusing and infuriating to deal with. Power is shared ambiguously between a weak president, who is elected from a field of loyalists and deals with day-to-day problems, and a nebulous revolutionary caste that controls the instruments of coercion. Sometimes Iran has proved pragmatic, for instance acquiescing in America’s overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Yet, under the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, ideology often trumps rational policymaking. Neither confrontation nor diplomacy can reliably sway the mullahs. And neither economic carrots nor sanctions seem to work as an alternative.

伊朗令人困惑和愤怒。权力模糊分散在两处，从忠诚支持者中选出的软弱总统处理日常问题，而模糊的革命阶级控制着高压手段。有时伊朗被证明是务实的，如默许美国推翻阿富汗塔利班政权。然而，在最高领袖阿里?哈梅内伊的领导下，意识形态往往胜过理性决策。无论是对峙还是外交都不能有效撼动毛拉。经济诱饵或经济制裁似乎都不是良策。

That said, Mr Obama’s accord, the JCPOA, succeeded in freezing Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of many sanctions. Mr Trump thinks this was a terrible deal that failed to halt the nukes for good or stop Iran from stirring trouble around the region. Renewed sanctions are pushing Iran into a deep economic crisis. But re-imposing them when Iran was abiding by the JCPOA casts America as the rogue. This has deepened the split with European allies, which have created a system to help firms sidestep them. America has bound itself more tightly to autocratic Arab regimes, such as Saudi Arabia, that have themselves fomented instability and radicalism. What “moral clarity” can America claim in denouncing Iran’s human-rights abuses when it turns a blind eye to those committed by its friends?

也就是说，奥巴马的伊核协议作为解除诸多制裁的条件，成功冻结了伊朗核计划。特朗普认为这项协议很糟糕，既未能永久停止核武器，也未能阻止伊朗在该地区制造麻烦。新一轮的制裁将伊朗置于严重的经济危机。但强迫伊朗重新遵守“伊核协议”会让美国扮演流氓角色。而这样做会加深美国与欧洲盟友的分歧，而欧洲盟友已创建了一个系统来帮助公司避开问题。美国与阿拉伯独裁政权联系更加紧密，如沙特阿拉伯，而这些国家本身会煽动不稳定和激进主义。在美国对其盟友所犯罪行熟视无睹时，其在谴责伊朗侵犯人权方面又能有什么“道德清晰度”呢?