2019年经济学人 印度vs巴基斯坦:莫迪的危险时刻(2)（在线收听）

In the long run, stability depends on Pakistan ending its indefensible support for terrorism. Its prime minister, Imran Khan, is urging dialogue and, in a promising gesture, was due to release India’s pilot—presumably with the approval of the army chief, who calls the shots on matters of security.

从长远来看，稳定取决于巴基斯坦结束对恐怖主义的站不住脚的支持。印度总理伊姆兰·汗以充满希望的姿态敦促双方进行对话，并将释放印度飞行员。这大概是得到了负责在安全问题上发号施令的军方首脑的批准。

But in the short run Mr Modi shares the responsibility to stop a disastrous escalation. Because he faces an election in April, he faces the hardest and most consequential calculations. They could come to define his premiership.

但短期内莫迪有责任阻止灾难性的局势升级。因为他将在4月迎来大选，要面对最艰难同时也是举足轻重的选票。而这些选票能够决定他的去留。

Mr Modi has always presented himself as a bold and resolute military leader, who does not shrink from confronting Pakistan’s provocations. He has taken to repeating a catchphrase from the film “Uri”, which portrays a commando raid he ordered against Pakistan in 2016 in response to a previous terrorist attack as a moment of chin-jutting grit. The all-too-plausible fear is that his own tendency to swagger, along with domestic political pressures, will spur him further down the spiral towards war.

莫迪一直表现为一勇敢果决的军事领袖，面对巴基斯坦的挑衅，他毫不退缩。他开始重复电影《Uri》中的一句口头禅，这部电影再现了他在2016年下令对巴基斯坦发动突击，以回应此前的一次恐怖袭击，以体现他的勇毅。最让人担心的是，他自己的狂妄自大，加上国内的政治压力，将促使他进一步滑向战争的漩涡。

The ambiguity of Mr Modi’s beliefs only deepens the danger. He campaigned at the election in 2014 as a moderniser, who would bring jobs and prosperity to India. But, his critics charge, all his talk of development and reform is simply the figleaf for a lifelong commitment to a divisive Hindu-nationalist agenda.

莫迪信仰的模糊性只会加深危险。在2014年的大选中，他以一名将为印度带来就业和繁荣的现代化人士的身份参加竞选。但是，他的批评者指责，他所有关于发展和改革的言论，只不过是他毕生致力于印度教民族主义分裂议程的遮羞布。

Over the past five years Mr Modi has lived up neither to the hype nor to the dire warnings. The economy has grown strongly under his leadership, by around 7% a year. He has brought about reforms his predecessors had promised but never delivered, such as a nationwide goods-and-services tax (GST).

过去5年，人们对莫迪的政治表现褒贬不一。在他的领导下，经济以每年7%的速度强劲增长。他推行了上任承诺但从未兑现的改革，比如在全国范围内征收商品及服务税。

But unemployment has actually risen during Mr Modi’s tenure, according to leaked data that his government has been accused of trying to suppress. The GST was needlessly complex and costly to administer. Other pressing reforms have fallen by the wayside. India’s banks are still largely in state hands, still prone to lend to the well-connected. And as the election has drawn closer, Mr Modi has resorted to politically expedient policies that are likely to harm the economy. His government hounded the boss of the central bank out of office for keeping interest rates high, appointing a replacement who promptly cut them. And it has unveiled draft rules that would protect domestic e-commerce firms from competition from retailers such as Amazon.

但据泄露的数据显示，在莫迪任期内，失业率实际上有所上升。莫迪政府被控试图压制这些数据。商品和服务税繁复且管理成本高。其他紧迫的改革已被搁置一旁。印度的银行很大程度上仍掌握在政府手中，仍倾向于像关系户放贷。随着大选临近，莫迪采取了可能损害经济的政治权宜之计。其政府将央行行长赶出了办公室，原因是他将利率维持在高位，并任命了一位继任者，后者立即降低了利率。此外，政府还公布了保护国内电子商务公司免受亚马逊等零售商竞争的规则草案。