2019年经济学人简洁的代价(2)（打印版）

That would trigger yet more political turmoil, which could bring protesters onto the streets and send foreign capital running for the exit.

这么做会引发更多的政治动荡，会让抗议者们走上街道，让外资纷纷撤离。

Investors distinguish clearly between countries that do and do not have free and peaceful elections,

投资者们清楚地区分出了有自由和平选举的国家以及没有自由和平选举的国家，

says Ibrahim Turhan, a former chair of the Istanbul stock exchange. "No one would like to see Turkey in the second group."

伊斯坦布尔证交所前主席伊布拉欣·图尔汗表示。“没人想看到土耳其被列入后者。”

In the month before the elections, Mr Erdogan encouraged state banks to increase the amount they lent at cheap rates.

选举前一个月，埃尔多安鼓励国有银行增加低息贷款。

Banks also came under pressure to lower lira deposit rates, making other currencies more attractive by comparison.

银行还面临降低里拉存款率的压力，这使得其他货币在相比之下更有吸引力。

Turkish residents now hold over half of their deposits in dollars and other hard currencies. None of this has helped the lira.

土耳其居民现在持有超过一半的美元和其他硬通货的存款。这些都没有帮助里拉。

On March 21st the central bank revealed it had burned through $6.3bn (over 18%) of its net reserves in a fortnight,

3月21日，央行披露在两周内已消耗掉63亿美元（超过18%）的净储备，

presumably in an undeclared effort to prop up the lira.

这可能是为了支持里拉而进行的一次未公开的努力。

After the news spooked investors, the government squeezed the offshore lira market,

这一消息吓坏了投资者，政府压缩离岸里拉市场，

making it harder for foreign speculators to borrow the currency in order to sell it.

让外国投机者更加难以借入货币以便卖出。

But the squeeze also posed a problem for Turkey's banks, points out Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think-tank,

美国智囊团外交关系委员会的布拉德·塞特瑟指出，压缩也给土耳其银行造成了一个问题，

because they depend on lira funding in the overseas market.

因为它们依赖于海外市场的里拉资金。

To ease their discomfort, the authorities made it easier for banks to swap their dollars for lira from the central bank.

为了缓解他们的不安，当局让银行更容易在央行用美元兑换里拉。

That had the effect of temporarily bolstering the central bank's dollar reserves, until the currencies are swapped back again.

这暂时支撑了央行美元储备，直到货币再次被兑换回来。

As the financial markets cottoned on to what was happening, investors began to distrust the central bank's weekly reserves figures.

随着金融市场逐渐意识到发生了什么，投资者开始不信任央行的每周外汇储备数据。

Was it trying to mislead investors? Probably not.

它是在试图误导投资者吗？或许不是。

As required by IMF standards, it duly reported the swaps in its monthly reserves statement, which is published with a 30-day lag.

按照IMF的标准，其在月度储备声明中报告了外汇掉期，该储备声明延后了30天才发布。

And in a press conference on April 30th, it explained the source of its sudden dollar infusion.

在4月30日的新闻发布会中，其解释了突然注入美元的原因。

But although it clarified why its reserves had abruptly gone up, it did not reveal why they had suddenly gone down in the weeks before.

但尽管它澄清了外汇储备突然增加的原因，但却没有透露为什么几周前外汇储备突然下降。

Judging by the financial markets' reaction, the conference did little to bolster investors' faith in the lira.

从金融市场的反应来看，这次发布会并没有增强投资者对里拉的信心。

The words of central banks can be powerful. But although they choose what to say, markets decide what to hear.

央行的话语很有影响力。虽然它们选择说什么，但市场决定听什么。