2019年经济学人 剑拔弩张:美国伊朗撕裂核协议(1)（在线收听）

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Collision course

剑拔弩张

As tensions rise between America and Iran, both sides need to step back

随着美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势升级，双方都需要退后一步

The drums of war are beating once again. An American aircraft- carrier strike group is steaming towards the Persian Gulf, joined by b-52 bombers, after unspecified threats from Iran. John Bolton, the national security adviser, says any attack on America or its allies “will be met with unrelenting force”. In Tehran, meanwhile, President Hassan Rouhani says Iran will no longer abide by the terms of the deal signed with America and other world powers, whereby it agreed to strict limits on its nuclear programme in return for economic relief. Iran now looks poised to resume its slow but steady march towards the bomb— giving American hawks like Mr Bolton further grievances.

战鼓再次响起。美国航空母舰战斗群在受到伊朗不明威胁后，正与b-52轰炸机一道驶向波斯湾。美国国家安全顾问约翰?博尔顿表示，对美国及其盟友的任何攻击“都将遭到无情的武力反击”。 与此同时，伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼在德黑兰表示，伊朗将不再遵守与美国和其他世界大国签署的协议条款。根据协议，伊朗同意严格限制其核计划，以换取经济援助。伊朗现在看起来准备恢复其缓慢但稳步的核计划——这让博尔顿等美国鹰派人士更加不满。

Just four years ago America and Iran were on a different path. After Barack Obama offered to extend a hand if Iran’s leaders “unclenched their fist”, the two sides came together, leading to the nuclear deal. That promised to set back the Iranian nuclear programme by more than a decade, a prize in itself, and just possibly to break the cycle of threat and counter-threat that have dogged relations since the Iranian revolution 40 years ago.

就在四年前，美国和伊朗走的是一条不同的道路。在巴拉克?奥巴马提出，如果伊朗领导人“松开拳头”，那么美国将伸出援手之后，双方走到了一起，达成了核协议。这将使伊朗核计划倒退十多年，这本身就是一个奖赏，而且很可能打破自40年前伊朗革命以来困扰两国关系的威胁与反威胁的循环。